Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Profit taking

New York sold off 2.5% after yesterday's big run-up as investors looked to lock in some gains in the midst of continuing uncertainty. The Dow closed off 293 points to 12,099 while the SPX closed at 1298, down 32. This is roughly in keeping with yesterday's negative forecast. Tomorrow looks pretty good as the Moon trines Jupiter at midday. I think we should finish up moderately for the day and the week.

Overseas markets have not bounced back as strongly on the heels of NY's gains however. Tokyo closed up 300 points to 12,260 but it's unlikely to get back to previous support levels (12,600), although I think an afternoon rally is very possible that puts the Nikkei in the green. Bombay was also sluggish yesterday as the Sensex closed up 1% to 14,993. It is sadly fulfilling our bearish forecast for the week. Thursday looks better, but it's also not going to get back to 16k
.
Commodities sold off sharply as oil finished at $102, down $6. Gold lost $59 to $945. Our bearish forecast for crude will easily be fulfilled this week and its doubtful that oil will stage much of a rally. Gold is also likely to continue to slip backwards until next week.

Despite the rate disappointment, the Euro is holding on to $1.562. This bodes well for its strength down the road. It will likely resume its climb tomorrow.