Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Gold down $60

Gold prices are plummeting today as investors bail out of the safe haven. It's now down under $950.

I hadn't foreseen this decline although I knew that we were in a volatile period where sharp rises and drops were possible.

Here's my current best guess on the astrological causes for today's plunge.

If we use the 10.00 am Gold futures chart (4 Aq rising), we know that transiting Rahu is sitting right on that ascendant. That makes sudden prices changes more likely, although the direction is not indicated.

We also know that this chart is running Venus-Saturn-Mercury dasha. Working backwards, natal Mercury (23 Sg) was recently conjoined by tr Jupiter but now that Jupiter is more than a degree away and separating (24 Sg). This is a bearish influence as I have noted that more often than not, aspects give their fullest effects during application and conjunction. One problem lies in identifying the exact day that hitherto bullish aspect loses its strength.

Transiting Mercury is in an interesting situation. While it is close to transiting Venus, presumably a favourable influence, and it is separating from the opposition aspect of transiting Saturn (another presumably bullish influence), today the transiting Moon joined tr Saturn to oppose tr Mercury. This Lunar influence may have brought forward some of the negative energies of the Saturn opposition to Mercury.

Subperiod lord Saturn is not closely aspected by any planet, although by transit, we may infer a stressful condition owing to the conjunction of tr Moon and tr Mercury. An added possible layer of bearish influence may be found in the fact that Mercury rules the dussthana 8th and Moon rules the dussthana 6th in the natal chart. Any transit combination of these planets with dasha lords may tend to indicate price declines.

But all this is sheer hypothesis as I'm nowhere near satisfied with this explanation. Yet another one of the market's enduring puzzles.

I'm still expecting a major rise Monday and Tuesday next week as the Mer-Ven conjoins the natal Jupiter. It may not take us back over $1000, however.

Other down days will include March 28-31 as tr Mars exactly opposes the natal Sun while tr Sun opposes natal Pluto forming a Western-style "Grand Cross". This looks like another significant sell off.

The next major bullish influence will the tr Jupiter stationing near the natal Venus in late April, soon after which we will likely see another sharp decline.

I'm not sure about the near term top . I think we may have another chance at new highs in April, and then again in August and later on in December. But after April, I think there will be price consolidation in gold that does not bode well for it overall. It may be time to rethink the basis of this secular rally in gold.