Sunday, June 24, 2018

Bad Moon Rising? Stocks fall on trade worries

(24 June 2018)  As the old song goes, there could be a "Bad Moon Rising" this week.   We are due for a Full Moon this week just after midnight EDT, Thursday June 28th.  The Full Moon will rise Wednesday night/Thursday morning in the US, but it seems more likely that stocks will fall.  That's because the Full Moon has been living up to its bearish reputation in financial astrology here in 2018 as each Full Moon has coincided with significant declines. 

There have been several statistical studies that have shown a correlation between the Full Moon and declining stock prices.  These studies have shown that the period a week before and after the Full Moon have lower returns on average compared with the two-week window around the New Moon.  The days immediately before and after the Full Moon are generally more bearish while the time around the New Moon are bullish.  While this correlation clearly doesn't hold during each lunar phase sequence, it seems true over time. 

We can see that this relationship has been manifesting very clearly during this correction over the past six months.  The Full Moon of January 31 marked the beginning of the first and deepest decline in the correction with stocks bottoming out about one week later.  The Full Moon of March 1 almost exactly matched an interim low in the market (the low was on March 2) after which stocks rebounded.  

The next Full Moon was March 31 and also marked a significant pullback as stocks made a low just two days later on April 2.  The Full Moon of April 29 also came during a down trend as stocks bottomed five days later on May 3.  The most recent Full Moon occurred on May 29 and marked the exact date of an interim low in the stock market.





Not only have stocks generally fallen during that 15-day window surrounding the Full Moon, but very often the day of the Full Moon has marked an approximate bottom in the stock market after which sentiment improved and stocks rose again.

So will this happen again this week?  It's very possible.  Stocks have already been falling in the US last week as we entered the bearish 15-day Full Moon window late in the week.  We should make special note of the fact that the midweek Full Moon looks even more bearish than normal.  The Moon (12 Sagittarius) will conjoin Saturn (11 Sagittarius) and align with Rahu (North Lunar Node) at 12 Capricorn.  Saturn is a bearish planet, of course, so the fact that the Full Moon could derive some additional negative influence from Saturn suggests two things to me: 1) a higher than normal probability of a decline this week and 2) a higher possibility of a large decline (e.g. >2%). 

This Full Moon period of elevated risk could well extend into early next week as Mercury follows suit on Monday, July 2nd and aligns with bearish Saturn and bearish Rahu.   The standard bearish 15-day Full Moon window is due to end July 4th.

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.

Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Trump meets Kim in Singapore

(13 June 2018) Now the hard work begins.  The much-anticipated summit between North Korea's Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump has finally taken place in Singapore.  The two leaders met over several hours on Tuesday and signed a commitment to work towards peace and to denuclearize the Korean peninsula.  The accord is undoubtedly an important first step towards a lasting peace although questions remain about specifics.  Most analysts were still skeptical of any tangible results in the long term.  Over the past twenty years, North Korea has signed similar promises to halt its nuclear weapons program at least seven times and has found ways to renege or violate the agreements each time.  It remains to be seen if this time will be different.

As I have previously suggested, I think this air of optimism is likely to fade by August as the principal horoscopes of Trump and the 1953 Korean Armistice show considerable affliction.  In addition, we can now add the special relationship (or Davison) chart between Trump and Kim.  This chart is derived by combining the birth data of the two men and dividing it in two. This produces a third, unique set of birth data which can be cast as a separate chart.  It is then used to see ups and downs of the relationship between the two individuals.

The derived relationship chart for Trump and Kim yields a birth date of 27 March 1965.  Very quickly, we can see why their meeting today was so successful.  Venus (3 Cancer) was at the top of the chart in the 10th house of status and public profile and thus highlighted notions of conviviality and sociability.  It also aligned very closely to the Ascendant.  Venus was also aspecting the Moon within three degrees.  Moon-Venus transits are classic signatures for pleasant social experiences. 

Mercury (4 Gemini), the planet of communication, was also prominent as it was placed in the 9th house of higher principles (peace, diplomacy) and also in close alignment with the Ascendant and the Moon by degreewise reckoning.  At the time of the meeting, the Moon was conjunct Jupiter, the planet of "right action", abundance, and optimism.  Rule-breaking Uranus is also there sitting on the 7th house and underscored the unprecedented and even surprising nature of the summit.  It was definitely an auspicious arrangement of planets for their first meeting.




What is worth noting here is that we can see that the August time frame is again highlighted by the transits of some negative planets.  Moreover, there are no transits of benefic planets which might offset some of the negativity.  Transiting Rahu is at the top of the chart in June and July.  This likely only reflects the importance and high profile of the Trump-Kim relationship rather than any particular results or outcome.  Rahu in the 10th house is a good transit actually, but by itself I wouldn't expect it to deliver any major steps forward toward lasting peace.  It may simply keep the whole issue at the forefront of the news cycle.  A possible key date may be August 9th, when transiting Mars conjoins the natal Moon and the Sun and Mercury are conjunct while aligning with natal Ketu.  This suggests a significant uptick in tensions. 

However, it doesn't look bad enough to be a deal breaker.  But all of August and September look increasingly difficult for this relationship since Mars will station direct at 4 Capricorn on Aug 27 while conjunct the Moon and square the Ascendant.  Moreover, Saturn will station direct at 8 Sagittarius in a close square alignment with Venus, the planet of amity.  This looks like relations may get quite frosty with more than a little hostility mixed in.



The deeper problem with the chart is that Neptune is opposite the Mars-Uranus-Pluto conjunction for the next year.  It's very unhelpful for peace since Neptune symbolizes delusion and deception when in hard aspect as it is here.  Given North Korea's poor track record on disarmament and Trump's own personal struggles with the truth, the Neptune influence looks like the relationship will have a high level of mistrust.  

The spring of 2019 looks like a possible peak of difficulties as Saturn and Ketu will align with natal Mars-Uranus-Pluto.  It is difficult to say exactly what may transpire at this time, but some kind of military conflict should not be discounted.  It is a very serious affliction to this relationship chart.   I hope to revisit these charts as developments unfold.


Weekly Market Forecast


Stocks have generally continued higher over the past week as investors are managing to look past any temporary trade tensions with China and the G7.  The Dow lost just one point today closing at 25,320 while India's Sensex pushed higher to 35,692.  This mostly bullish outcome over the past week is more or less in keeping with expectations as I thought the Sun-Mercury conjunction and alignment with Jupiter and Neptune would boost sentiment. 

The Fed delivers its latest policy statement tomorrow and it is widely expected to raise rates again.  But all eyes will be on its forward guidance and the language it uses for possible future hikes.  Wednesday is the day of the New Moon so there is at least some possibility of further gains. New Moons tend to be bullish, although this is more of a statistical fact and not a high probability outcome.  The larger problem on this occasion is that the New Moon occurs in a difficult alignment with Mars and the Lunar Nodes.  For this reason I would think there is some downside risk on Wednesday.  Thursday's Moon-Mercury conjunction is in fairly close opposition to Saturn so that is another possible red flag for the market.  It seems likely that we will see some downside this week and perhaps into next week also when Venus opposes Mars at midweek. 

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.


Simplified financial transit outlook for June 13 - 20

Wed 6/13   New Moon 135 Mars-Ketu        bearish  -2

Thu  6/14   Moon-Mercury-180-Saturn       bearish  -3
                   Venus-90-Uranus                    bullish  +1

Fri   6/15   Mercury-180-Saturn                  bearish  -2
                   Moon-120-Jupiter                    bullish +1

Mon  6/18  Venus-Rahu                               bullish +1
                 Mercury-Jupiter-Neptune           bullish +1

Tue   6/19  Venus-Saturn                            bearish -1
                  Mercury-Jupiter                         bullish +1

Wed  6/20  Venus-180-Mars                       bearish -2
                   Moon-90-Saturn                      bearish -1
                   Mercury-Jupiter-Neptune         bullish +2

Monday, June 4, 2018

The upcoming Trump-Kim summit

(4 June 2018) It now seems virtually certain that US President Donald Trump will finally meet the leader of North Korea, Kim Jong-un.  The on-again, off-again summit seems to be a go now as the two will meet in Singapore on June 12.  The meeting is currently scheduled to take place at 9 a.m. local time. It will be the first time a US president has met personally with the leader of the isolated and enigmatic communist country of North Korea.

The meeting will represent the culmination of diplomatic efforts to stave off conflict in the Korean peninsula after North Korea had destabilized the region in 2017 with a series of provocative missile tests.  Kim's North Korea is intent on building an arsenal of nuclear weapons in order to defend itself against a seemingly hostile alliance of the US, Japan and South Korea.  Kim has apparently agreed to the US demand for denuclearization, although many observers believe he not serious about disarming and is simply buying time. 

My view of the planetary alignments on June 12 suggest the summit is likely to go well.  Using the horoscope of the Korean Armistice (July 27, 1953), we can see that benefic planets Mercury and Venus are placed in key positions.  Mercury (talking, communication) is very much highlighted as it sits at the top of the chart conjunct the 10th house cusp.  Both sides in the conflict will be talking constructively at the summit.  The Sun (27 Taurus) will be conjunct the natal Venus so that suggests a convivial and co-operative atmosphere between the two leaders. 





Since transiting Venus (3 Cancer) will conjoin the 11th house cusp (i.e. sextile the Ascendant) representing gains and wishes fulfilled, there is reason to expect the talks will go a long way to defuse tensions and set up further negotiations towards peace.  The transits of these fast moving planets all point to a successful summit.  Venus also gives a boost to Trump's horoscope at that time also as Venus conjoins its natal position.  That is usually an indication of favourable situations, especially with the Sun in the 10th very close to his birthday on the 14th. Trump should benefit politically from the summit.



However, I would also note that there is some instability here that is likely to linger.  Mars and Ketu (South Lunar Node) are conjunct the natal Rahu and the Moon.  This emphasizes the notion of conflict and unpredictability.  No one really knows what will happen in the summit as North Korea's Kim is almost as unpredictable as Trump himself.   The Mars-Ketu conjunction isn't exact, however, so I'm less inclined to think it will reflect tensions occurring during the summit. 

It may be the case that the fallout from the Mars-Ketu conjunction will occur later, after Mars has turned retrograde (June 26) and then conjoins the natal Rahu and opposes Mercury and the Sun more closely.  August will therefore be more difficult in this respect so I would expect tensions to escalate once again in the late summer.  Whatever progress or deal that may have been made at this summit could well be at risk culminating around the time Mars goes direct at 4 Capricorn on August 27.  Trump's chart is also hit hard by this Mars direct station as it will align with his Ascendant and sit on his 8th house of obstacles and setbacks. 

Where this year's diplomatic efforts will eventually lead is hard to predict.  Some short term success is possible but overall the situation doesn't look encouraging.  The armistice chart just entered its Mercury dasha period in 2017.  While Mercury is a benefic planet, it is "hemmed in" between malefics Mars and Ketu in the 11th house.  This is a very unstable and dangerous Mercury which strongly hints are the possibility of some serious problems emerging.  I do think there are some specifically difficult patterns in 2020 which will impact the Korean charts.  I hope to research this question further in coming weeks.


Weekly Market Forecast

Stock markets have moved higher over the past week on hopes that a full-blown trade war can be avoided.  The Dow closed higher again on Monday at 24,813 after some declines early last week.  India's Sensex closed at 35,011 and has been weaker due to expectations of an interest rate hike at the next RBI meeting on Wednesday.

This largely positive performance was generally in keeping with expectations as I thought stocks would likely recover around the Venus-Jupiter-Neptune alignment.  As expected, last Tuesday's decline coincided exactly with the Full Moon which was particularly bearish given the larger alignment of the Sun and Moon with Saturn.

As I have indicated in the simplified transit listing below, the planets this week look fairly positive.  To be sure, the ongoing Mars-Ketu-Saturn alignment doesn't look good at all.  It is a kind of looming cloud behind this market which will likely seriously damage sentiment at some point.  Since Mars is slowing down ahead of its retrograde station on June 26th, however, it is less clear when its negativity will manifest. 

But the bullish presence of a Sun-Mercury conjunction at 21-22 Taurus that aligns with Jupiter (21 Libra) and Neptune (21 Aquarius) makes me think stocks could extend their recent rise significantly higher this week.  The late week is perhaps more bearish, however, but Tuesday and Wednesday should be positive enough to produce gains. 

For more details and analysis on market trends for this week, this month and this year, please check out my weekly MVA Investor Newsletter.  The newsletter is published every Saturday and includes extended discussion of US and Indian stock markets, as well as gold, oil and major currencies.



Simplified Transit Outlook for week of 4 June 2018


Mon 4  bullish           Sun-Mercury-Jupiter-Neptune          +1
                                Venus-Pluto                                     +1   
                                Mars-Ketu-Saturn                            -1

Tue  5   bullish          Sun-Mercury-Jupiter-Neptune        +3
                                 Venus-Pluto                                    +1
                                 Mars-Ketu-Saturn                           -1

Wed  6  bullish         Sun-Mercury-Moon-Jup-Nep           +4*
                                (maybe too bullish -- a possible peak?)
                                Mars-Ketu-Saturn                            -1

Thu 7   mixed           Sun-Jupiter-Neptune                      +1
                                Mars-Ketu-Saturn                           -1

Fri 8     bearish         Moon-Mars-Ketu-Saturn                 -3

Mon 11  mixed         Mercury-Venus                                +1
                                Mars-Ketu-Saturn                           -1