Sunday, March 29, 2009

Stocks continue to rally, but Mars and Saturn may have other ideas


Stocks extended their rally for a third week last week as a growing number of investors believed that the worst was over and that a new bull phase has begun. In New York the Dow climbed to 7776 and the S&P to 815. In Mumbai, the rally was even stronger as the key indices approached some key resistance levels on prices last seen in early January. The Nifty closed Friday at 3108 and the Sensex at 10,048. This bullishness has lasted longer than I expected and reflects the fact that passing aspects alone do not fully coincide with the movements of markets. In retrospect, the February New Moon in Aquarius on February 24 may have contained a clue to this rally through the close conjunction of Mercury and Jupiter in that chart. In fact, I noted that the chart looked favourable for stocks in March in my weekly forecast at the time. As good as the chart looked, I never expected the March rally to be so strong.

With Mars fast approaching Saturn, this rally is on the verge of turning, and may have already by virtue of Friday's down day in New York. The Sun conjoins Mercury late on Monday as both planets leave Saturn-ruled Uttara Bhadra and enter Mercury-ruled Revati. The net effect of these patterns is not clear, however. Mercury can sometimes get a boost from the Sun if other factors are supportive. By itself, the Sun is malefic and combusts planets it comes into contact with, so there is a risk that this may push prices lower, especially since Mercury is debilitated in Pisces. The Revati influence is perhaps more clearly negative since it is ruled by a fallen Mercury. Some midweek strength may result from the harmonic contact between two benefics, Venus and Jupiter. Since this is a partial strength aspect (they are conjunct in the D8 Ashtamsha chart) the positive effects may be fairly modest. The late week looks more negative as Mercury forms a tense 150 degree aspect with Saturn and Mars moves closer the to Saturn aspect, which comes exact on Saturday.
I note also that the Mars and Saturn opposition this week will aspect the Venus-Mars conjunction in the Houck USA chart on April 1 and 6. An affliction to natal Venus can mean sudden (Mars) loss (Saturn) of money (Venus) that one might associate with a stock market decline, while the affliction to the natal Mars may indicate some significant military action or other expression of violence. I see that the head of GM, Rick Waggoner, has now been asked to step down by Obama, so that also fits with the symbolism of an afflicted Venus, which represents vehicles. This may prove to be a difficult week for the auto industry.

Gold may move higher this week with some nice aspects in the GLD chart. Crude oil looks like it will eventually move lower by week's end. Dollar recovery to likely continue.

Wednesday, March 25, 2009

Stocks move higher


After a volatile day, stocks in New York ended higher as the bulls pushed prices further. The Dow closed at 7749 and the S&P at 813. Mumbai also built on Monday's gains as the Nifty closed at 2984 and the Sensex at 9667. Obviously, the market is exhibiting far more bullishness than expected ahead of the Sun-Venus-Ketu alignment on Friday.

Despite the strength of this rally, I still believe the bias is down in the near term. It's possible we may see another 3-5% on the upside, but some kind of significant retracement down is beckoning. The New Moon is tomorrow so that may hold some important clues for the next couple of weeks.

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Fed plan fails to impress Wall St.


Stocks moved higher last week, fueled in part by the Fed's plan to buy treasuries and loosen up the credit market. After peaking on Wednesday near 800, the S&P closed Friday at 768 while the Dow ended the day at 7278. Mumbai managed to avoid much of the late week selling pressure as the Sensex closed at 8966 and the Nifty at 2807. I thought we would see more of a decline with the Mercury-Jupiter-Saturn alignment, although the US market did fall in the two days following it. Interesting that the Mars-Pluto aspect on Wednesday did coincide with a significant financial event, namely the Fed's buy back plan. Tuesday's rise could be attributed to the Mercury-Jupiter aspect that preceded the Saturn aspect. Rather than have Saturn's negative influence 'bleed backwards' and contaminate benefics Mercury and Jupiter, the orb was far enough that Mercury and Jupiter could strengthen each other, if only temporarily.

This week appears to have some potentially negative influences that may make it difficult for the market to add to recent gains. On Monday, the Sun is in a square aspect with Pluto. This may indicate some tension and struggle surrounding large organizations and government. Also, the Moon is conjunct both Mars and Neptune, another potentially difficult transit that carries overtones of secrecy or illusion. One wonders if the Geithner plan to deal with the toxic banking assets may somehow embody some of these forces. Given the planets involved, there is some reason to think that the plan will not be well received. Tuesday sees Mars in harmonic aspect with Rahu, perhaps indicating an excess of energy or an action that is somehow out of control, with possible damaging consequences. Thursday features the New Moon at 12 degrees of sidereal Pisces. Given the close aspect from unpredictable Ketu, this New Moon chart may indicate a lot of volatility for the next few weeks. On Friday, the Sun conjoins retrograde Venus, now in an even closer aspect from Ketu. While it's possible this may coincide with higher prices as perhaps the unbounded quality of Ketu may unleash a flurry of buying on baseless optimism, but it seems more likely to translate into selling.

Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Stocks gain on Fed plan


Investors cheered the Fed's plan to buy treasuries as stocks rallied from a morning loss as the Dow closed at 7486 and the S&P at 794. Stocks also rose in Mumbai as the Nifty ended the day at 2794 and the Sensex at 8976. The US dollar moved sharply lower as the increased debt burden from the Fed plan made the greenback less attractive.

The market is extending this bull run further than expected as the negativity from the Mercury-Saturn opposition appears to have been offset by the presence of Jupiter near the same degree. It's possible the up trend may squeeze a few more percent gain before the bears take control again.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Stocks surge on banking hopes


Stocks rose sharply last week on new hope for the viability of the US banking sector, as the Dow ended Friday at 7223 and the S&P at 756. In Mumbai, stocks also posted substantial gains in the holiday-shortened week as the Sensex closed at 8756 and the Nifty at 2719. The gain was largely in keeping with our astrological expectations given the benefic influences of the Sun-Uranus conjunction and the Venus-Jupiter aspect. An added bullish element could be found in the favourable overlay that these aspects created in the relevant natal charts. In the Mumbai NSE chart, for example, the Sun-Uranus conjunction at 28 Aquarius was in exact trine aspect with the Jupiter at 28 Libra.

This week Saturn once again finds itself the centre of attention as Mercury makes its exact opposition aspect to it on Wednesday, while Jupiter is just one degree from forming an exact 6th house aspect with Saturn. While the complexity and uncertainty of astrology often precludes clear causal statement, any alignment that contains Saturn tends to promote fear and pessimism and hence declines are more likely. Another possible bearish influence is the Sun's entrance into sidereal Pisces on March 14. Pisces is ruled by Jupiter and since Jupiter is currently debilitated in Capricorn, this may weaken the Sun's ability to boost sentiment and inspire confidence. On Wednesday, Mars forms a close 3rd house aspect with Pluto and this may add and extra dose of energy and desire to traders. By itself, it is a neutral aspect that can either be positive or negative for the markets. It may indicate higher volumes and could be associated with a larger market move as investors may feel a greater sense of urgency to enter or exit their positions.

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Massive rally in New York


Stocks staged their biggest one day gain of the year as the key indexes rose 6% today on a favourable earnings report from Citigroup. The Dow closed up almost 400 points to 6926 while the S&P catapulted to 719.

The gains came a little earlier than expected this week with the approach of the Sun-Uranus conjunction. It seems that the more immediate source of bullish energy may have derived from the Venus-Jupiter aspect. We could look for this rally to continue through the week, although we cannot rule out some profit taking along the way, possibly Thursday or Friday. This is not likely to be a one-day wonder so we could easily see 7300 on the Dow at some point here. Tomorrow should see more gains.

Sunday, March 8, 2009

Investors give up on stocks as Dow falls to 6500


Stocks kept falling last week over continuing questions surrounding the viability of the financial sector. The Dow broke through 7000 and closed Friday at 6626 while the S&P ended at 683. In Mumbai, the Nifty retested its October lows and ended down 5% to close at 2620 while the Sensex stood at 8325. This results are largely in keeping with expectations with the likely fallout from the approaching Venus retrograde station in tense aspect with Saturn. Wednesday's gains in New York deserve special mention here for bucking the down trend. Certainly, the close harmonic aspect between Sun and Venus had the potential for boosting sentiment, although it was something of an open question whether it might manifest Tuesday when Jupiter was also in the mix. Interestingly, the Moon was in Mars-ruled Mrigashira on Wednesday, while Mars was transiting its own nakshatra of Dhanista. This is a favourable combination that may have been a factor in the rise. By Thursday, the Moon had moved into Rahu-ruled Ardra and the selling resumed. For its part, Rahu was in Moon-ruled Shravana, and while the exchange of lords
is often seen as fortuitous, in this case we may speculate whether such an exchange could still generate optimism given the difficult condition of Rahu in Capricorn.

With the Venus station now behind us, there is a good prima facie case for some kind of rebound here. The Sun-Uranus conjunction comes exact on Thursday and this should provide a lot of new, restless energy that could increase volumes. Since the conjunction is occurring in Uranian-ruled Aquarius, that is a possible positive indicator to this contact that could translate into higher prices. Another potentially favourable influence on the markets is the 3rd house aspect (sextile) between Venus and Jupiter on Wednesday. The Moon moves into harmonic alignment with this aspect on Thursday (EDT) so it's possible that the bulk of the bullish trend may be confined towards the end of the week. Nonetheless, Wednesday's Moon looks favourable by another metric since will be in Sun-ruled Uttara Phalguni while the Sun is moving away from Saturn towards Uranus in Jupiter-ruled Purva Bhadra. Before then, the market may be more tentative. On Monday, the Moon is in Magha while Ketu is in Pushyami. Whatever other influences that may be effective at that time, that particular situation is not very supportive of prices.

With Mercury and Mars still remaining to oppose Saturn, one can't be overly confident that the market is prepared to rally substantially from here. Even if this week is positive, the market will be prone to more sideways movement and pullbacks over the next few weeks.

Wednesday, March 4, 2009

Stocks bounce


Buyers returned to Wall St today breaking a five day losing streak as the Dow closed at 6875 and the S&P ended the day at 712. Indian stocks also found their legs Wednesday as equities rose 1%. The Sensex closed at 8446 and the Nifty at 2645.

After Monday's bloodbath, the relief rally was not unexpected, especially given the alignment of Sun, Venus and Jupiter around the same degree of their respective signs. This was enough to negate the bearishness of the Venus-Saturn aspect, at least temporarily. Another up day is possible this week from this positive alignment but once it begins to dissolve, the bears will likely return.

Sunday, March 1, 2009

Forecast for week of March 2 - 6


US markets sank further into the quicksand of this bear market last week as stocks fell another 4% as the Dow finished at 7062 and the S&P closed at 735. Mumbai fared better than most world markets last week and managed to eke out modest gains as the Nifty closed at 2763 and the Sensex at 8891. While the Dow managed to stay above the psychologically important 7000 mark, the S&P fell unceremoniously below its November low and is now at 12-year lows. While I had expected the early week bearishness, the New Moon was not as positive as I had thought so the end of the week saw markets down again.

Now we're facing the prospect of a Venus retrograde station at 21 Pisces that is in a tense 6th house aspect with Saturn at 24 Leo. Add to that the Jupiter-Saturn 6th house aspect that will come exact March 23, and the minor aspect between Saturn and Pluto on March 11, and it's a fairly bleak picture. These are configurations involving slower moving bodies so we can't take the dates of their exactitude as necessarily indicative of the dates of their maximum impact. They have to be triggered by faster moving planets that complete the pattern. There are several possible triggers here including the Sun opposing Saturn and Mercury and Mars conjoining Neptune this week and then Mercury and Mars opposing Saturn in mid March and early April respectively. The markets may manage some gains this week due to the harmonic aspects of Sun and Jupiter and Mercury will transit through the Jupiter-ruled section of Dhanista on Monday. Overall, however, it seems like a bearish situation. From a nakshatra perspective, Mercury moves into the Saturn-ruled section of Dhanista Tuesday and Wednesday. And then Jupiter will move into the presumably bearish Ketu ruled portion of Shravana for Thursday and Friday.

This pattern has a certain ominous portent here that makes me wonder if something fairly big is right around the corner. There is a real possibility for a major move down with all these Saturn patterns coming together.