Sunday, May 25, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of May 26 - 30

New York finished the week down over 3%, closing at 12,479 on the Dow and 1375 on the SPX. While I had foreseen this decline, I had thought we would be spared the brunt of it until Thursday or Friday and into next week. As it happened, the decline came early on Wednesday and pushed the markets decisively below key resistance levels. I think we have some more downside left on this move down this week. The Mercury retrograde station on Monday looms large in this respect, even if it falls on a day when the markets are closed. Tuesday and Wednesday therefore look most vulnerable to sell offs. On Tuesday, Venus squares Saturn while Moon opposes Saturn, a very difficult pattern and points to a significant loss, most likely greater than 1%, perhaps as high as 2%. This should set the tone for the rest of the week and we should finish lower across the board. There's a chance that the March lows will be re-tested here, but it's more likely we'll see between 1320-1330 as an intraday bottom and finishing somewhat above that. The following week looks strong, so look the market to attempt yet another rally.

The Euro is coming off a strong week and starts Monday at 1.5755. While I had spotted the supporting influence of Sun and Venus in the 9th house, my forecast for a down week was off the mark as the stationing Mercury did not suffer any ill effects from the natal Ketu. The current uptrend is likely to continue next week as the Venus in Taurus still sits very close to the 9th house cusp. Thursday may be the best day, as Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter.

As predicted, Oil continued its march ever upward and we did easily pass $130. After the high of $135 on Wednesday, the market showed signs of weakening as the rally on Friday only got it back to $132. Given the central role of the stationing Mercury to this price spike, I am eager to see what the market looks like on the other side of Monday's station. There's a good chance that the reversal in Mercury's direction may be reflected in a similar reversal of the upward trend. I think a large move back under $130 is a plausible scenario for the week, with a possible upturn by Friday. Overall, I think the week looks negative but we'll probably see another large rally by the second week of June.

Despite my negative outlook, Gold is coming off a bullish week and opens trading at $925. I think it's likely to repeat this performance and may end up bumping up against resistance levels in the $940-950 range. Tr Sun and Venus are moving closer to the trinal aspect of natal Jupiter in the ETF chart which is a positive signal. The following week or two will see Gold fall back towards $900, however, as the consolidation process continues.

Wednesday, May 21, 2008

New York drops 1.5%

Stocks dropped today on the release of the Fed notes which suggested that the current phase of rate cuts are likely over. The Dow closed at 12,601 while the SPX ended at 1390. While I had thought we were due for an up day midweek in advance of the bearish Sun-Saturn square Thursday and Friday, it seems that the pessimism got a head start. I think this is the beginning of a leg down that will last through next week. The Mercury will station squaring Uranus next week (although the markets will be closed for Memorial Day Monday), so this really may be quite a volatile and negative run here. I would not be surprised to see us approach the bottom of recent trading ranges -- 11,800/1270, although the Dow has been beaten up more than the SPX so it will be more likely to get there. We may even get into a position of actually re-testing those levels next week. If Friday is really bad (-2%), then the re-test scenario will be more likely.

While tr Venus conjoins the natal Mercury in the 1792 chart, Sun is applying to its degreewise square with Saturn just one degree past the natal Sun in this chart. Happy Birthday, NYSE -- I can't imagine a worse gift than a Sun-Saturn square in a return chart. It bodes very poorly for the year ahead. Also, the Mercury is stationing square Uranus but that is also square the natal 1792 Mars and forms a very volatile t-square. I think May 30 may be the short term bottom.

Oil passes $132

As predicted, the speculative frenzy in oil continues as it is currently trading over $132. This confirms my sense that the approaching Mercury station in tight aspect to Rahu is fueling this price spiral. A key additional element is that this stationing Mercury is sitting just a few degrees from the Ascendant of the Oil Futures chart. Last week, I had thought that the Mars square to the Moon-Saturn would force prices down, but it's clear that this Mercury-Rahu pattern is much stronger. With Mercury still going forward until Monday, prices should continue rising. I would not rule out $140 at this point.

Prices may decline after Monday when Mercury goes retrograde, but even there it's important to remember that everything else will still be intact. It will still be under the aspect of Rahu for another week, and it will still conjoin the natal ascendant of the futures chart. This suggest that even if the decline happens, it may not last. As a pure guess, I think we could it fall back $10 from whatever high it ends up making this week But I can see that another mini-rally is possible by the second week of June as tr Sun and Venus conjoin the late Taurus ascendant.

All in all, I don't see oil prices falling back sharply in the coming three weeks. By the second half of June, we may start to see some sanity again. I expect prices to fall gradually back down to earth through July and early August.

Sunday, May 18, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of May 19 -23

New York is coming off an up week and opens Monday at 12,986/1425. My forecast ran aground on the expectation of an early week sell off which did not materialize. In hindsight, much of the rise can be attributed to the transiting Sun-Jupiter trine which overrode any afflictions in the SPX chart. The late-week rise on the Sun-Moon-Jupiter grand trine was in keeping with the forecast, however, but by then the market was already on firmer territory.

While the Venus-Jupiter trine has perfected Sunday, I think there may be enough optimism left in the separating aspect to move prices up into Monday. The bullish move will likely be further supported by the Moon's aspect to Venus at the start of trading. Venus squares Neptune on Tuesday, however, which might be a time for an unsustainable rally which ultimately fails by the close. Transiting Venus also conjoins the natal Mercury in the 1792 chart, so that is probably another boost for the market mid-week. More negatively, the Sun will be in square aspect to Saturn on Thursday and Friday, so both those days may see the market under water, although Friday is worse. On balance the up momentum is significant this week, so we may close up overall, although not by much given Friday's probable decline. Things look more troubled next week as Mercury turns retrograde on Monday. This is can be a factor that reverses the prevailing trend, and since we've been moving up recently, it's reasonable to see this is as a bearish signal. Another important dimension to this retrograde station is that it occurs in close aspect to Rahu. This intensifies the feelings of unease and uncertainty connected with trading and may correspond to significant computer glitches as well. Moreover, Monday the 26th will feature Venus in square aspect to Saturn and Sun in tight aspect with the natal Rahu of the 1792 chart. Overall, not a good mix.

The Euro opens at 1.5576, up almost a full cent on the week. Although it was down below 1.54 intraday early in the week, I underestimated the bullish effects of the partile Tr. Uranus conjunction to natal Jupiter. As transiting lagna lord Mercury slows down, it comes under the aspect of the natal Ketu, which is a negative influence. This may be held off for part of the week by the bullish effect of transiting Sun and Venus in the 9th house of the natal chart. But here only Monday and Friday look positive. My best guess is that the Euro will finish down for the week, possibly below 1.55.

Oil continues to defy my bearish expectations as it finished above $126 once again. While it did touch below $122 earlier in the week, it bounced right back, fueled by ongoing speculation and the cheerleading provided by Goldman Sachs. It seems that the transiting Mercury to the ascendant of the futures chart was not price neutral after all. It's still pretty close to the ascendant this week, so I'm reluctant to predict any major declines and we may see $130. The presence of the Rahu aspect to Mercury says nothing, if not "speculation". I don't fully understand why the tr Mars to the futures Moon-Saturn has not provided enough downside pressure on prices. Perhaps it's a case of just being offset by Mercury hovering close to the ascendant. We may have to wait for Mercury to turn retrograde on the 26th and thereby turn away from the ascendant and out of Rahu's influence for prices to fall significantly. This is likely going to be very volatile for a few weeks as long as Mercury is within range of Rahu.

Gold opens at $899, up modestly from the previous week. I had thought trading would be choppy with early week weakness and that wasn't entirely off the mark, although the size of the swings surprised me. Monday looks good as Tr. Moon opposes Venus in soft aspect to the natal Venus in the futures chart. Midweek looks more problematic as Mercury opposes the Pluto in the ETF chart. Overall, I think Gold finishes lower on the week, but there are enough upward signals here to warrant some daily up moves, too.

Thursday, May 15, 2008

NY stocks rise on grand trine

New York is up 1% yesterday on better than expected inflation news. While
the decline I forecast early in the week has yet to make an appearance,
it's interesting to note that the rally I expected today did come off as
planned. This may be associated with the grand trine of Jupiter (28
Sagittarius), Sun (0 Taurus) and Moon (0 Virgo) where all planets are
120 degrees from each other. I am still expecting a significant pull
back sometime this week.

The moral of this story may be the predominant influence of transiting
patterns over any relevant natal chart configurations.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of May 12 - 16

New York is coming off a moderately negative week and opens at 12,745/1388. While I had thought the market would finish somewhat higher by Friday, these levels are in line with my worse-case intraday expectation of 1390 on the SPX. With Jupiter now retrograde, I think we are going to see some fundamental shifts in sentiment in the coming weeks as the glass will begin to appear half-empty to more market players. I don't think the market will go straight down from here though, since a rally of some size is likely heading into mid-June.

Last week, I predicted that Monday the 12th may see a substantial decline. I still think there is a big downside risk early this week owing to the simultaneous aspecting of transiting Mars and Saturn to the SPX natal Mercury. Also tr Mercury opposes the natal SPX Saturn as well, making the density of these contacts very high, and largely negative. Discerning outcomes is made more complicated since tr Jupiter trines tr Sun (a bullish influence) and these planets are exactly aligned with the Mars-Ketu conjunction in the SPX chart. While I think this natal contact essentially neutralizes the favourable influence of the trine, I acknowledge there is a slight possibility that the market could go the other way and rally. Regardless, I think Monday-Tuesday will see large price swings, most probably to the downside. The latter part of the week starting on Wednesday looks like a nice rally as a grand trine forms between tr Jupiter, Moon, and Sun. Overall, I think the market will finish the week lower with possible intraday lows of 12,500/1350.

Although I was steadfast in my belief that the recent run-up on Indian markets is nothing but a bear market rally, I thought the rise would last through last week. It didn't, and the BSE finished lower and opens at 16,737. In retrospect, I underestimated the negative impact of the late week tr Mars aspect to the natal Moon in the Nifty Futures chart. The Sun-nodal t-square perfects this week just as the tr Sun passes over the natal Saturn in the Nifty chart creating a situation of extreme uncertainty and confusion leading to fear. This aspect makes its closest pass on Tuesday and Wednesday, on the heels of the likely Monday sell off in NY. A close under 16k is possible here and negative week seems the most likely outcome although with a decent snapback rally late in the week, the Sensex may not be down by that much. My sense is that this isn't the end of the bear market rally and we may see more sizable rallies up until about June 10.

I was similarly sanguine about the TSE last week which finished lower at 13,655, although I was correct in predicting the end of the week weakness. This global bearish pattern for the week is also seen in the Tokyo chart. Tr Mars opposes natal Jupiter, although interestingly it doesn't perfect until later in the week. The Sun-nodal t-square also affects this chart, as the Sun is just four degrees from its natal position on Monday. Note also that the transiting Moon joins Ketu on Monday for added punch. This chart looks less afflicted than either NY or Mumbai, so it's possible the decline may be less here.

The Euro closed fractionally higher last week and opens at 1.5492. While I had forecast a down week, my projection for intraday lows of 1.53 was spot on as the Euro hit that level twice on Wednesday and Thursday. However, it bounced back sharply both times and even managed a decent gain on Friday. The Sun-nodal t-square will hit the Euro head-on as the nodes sit in inverse conjunction to their natal position -- tr Rahu conjunct natal Ketu. I think the Euro will revisit 1.53 again this week and will probably go below it. With Jupiter no long applying to the natal Venus, I think the Euro is headed down over the next few weeks. We should be well under 1.50 by June.

Last week's bearish forecast missed the mark as Oil is coming off another record-setting week with an apparent speculative blow off top and closed Friday above $125. Well, the party may well be over -- at least for this week. Tr Mars squares the Moon-Saturn in the futures chart this week with the perfection of the aspect due mid-week. With tr Saturn also aspecting that natal conjunction, there is a real risk for a large drop, perhaps back under $115. At this point, I am interpreting tr Mercury coming to the ascendant of the futures chart as a sign of increased trading, rather than a bullish price indicator.

I was similarly overly negative on Gold last week as it closed at $885, up $30. While I had thought some good rallies were possible, I didn't think they would hold as much as they did. I'm generally bearish short term, as I think Gold is in the process of forming a bottom here so I am expecting more testing of $850 and below in the coming weeks. This week Gold seems poised to decline as tr Mercury opposes the natal futures Mars, while tr Mars squares the natal Uranus. This apparently bearish pattern is reinforced by some hard aspects in the GLD ETF chart. It won't be all downhill from here, although I think the bearishness is likely strongest on Monday and Tuesday. I would not be surprised to see $850 at some point this week, although I'm not wholly committed to the gloom for this week. The drift should be down, but prices could be choppy here.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

Oil above $120

Crude is again above $120 today and climbing. Finding a compelling
explanation for this is difficult, although I suspect it can be linked in some way to the approaching Jupiter station at 28 Sag on Friday near the 8th equal house cusp of the futures chart. This can't really explain one-day price movements, but it does illuminate a speculative (unearned = 8th house) and short term top.

One possible peak to watch out for will be on Friday when tr Mercury
opposes the natal Jupiter in the futures chart. By most parameters,
Mercury is pratyantardasha (subsubperiod) lord, so this Jupiter
influence ought to give a boost to prices.

After Friday's station by Jupiter, the separation of this Mercury aspect, and tr Mars aspect to the Moon-Saturn, prices should tumble significantly next week. $110 is possible.

Sunday, May 4, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of May 5 - 9

Despite last week's prediction to the contrary, New York is coming off another good week as it finished at or above some key resistance levels. The Dow opens at 13,058, the SPX at 1413. While closes above these levels should be seen as bullish indicators, it's important to note that low volume and iffy market breadth have made them less than convincing signs that we've definitely broken out of the current trading range. We're sitting in between some big planetary direction changes now as Saturn turned direction on Friday, while Jupiter turns retrograde on Friday. So a holding pattern may be the most likely outcome with no big moves either way. I think the coming week will likely see the market stay at or near these levels, with a bias to the upside. I would say there's a 30% chance we'll see 13,400/1450 at some point this week, and only a 20% chance to see any intraday below 12,800/1390. Monday looks like heavy trading on the upside as tr Mercury conjoins the SPX ascendant.

I am still maintaining a bearish stance here, however, so I would be cautious about going long in this market especially at these relatively lofty levels. The next key date I'm looking is May 12th, when tr Mercury opposes the SPX Saturn and tr Mars and tr Saturn both line up a 7 degrees of their respective signs -- both aspecting the SPX Mercury. I don't know how deep the next leg down will be, but it should take us at least half way back to the key support levels. The markets could start to lose ground towards the end of this week in anticipation for sharper declines in the week of the 12th.

Bombay is coming off a good week and the Sensex opens Monday at 17,600. I can't see any reason for the uptrend to change so we will likely see 18k at some point. In the Nifty Futures chart, for example, tr second lord Sun is dispositor of bhukti lord Saturn is conjunct the 10th house cusp early in the week. Tr 11th lord Venus is applying to this favourable position, while Mercury transits through the 11th house of gains. While I still believe that this is nothing but a bear market rally, I am loath to bet against it this week.

Tokyo broke through 14k level last week and opens Monday at 14,049. Tr Mars crosses the TSE ascendant early in the week and yet this is unlikely to cause much turbulence because tr Moon, Sun, and Venus will closely conjoin the TSE Mars in Aries. On Monday, tr Mercury will be just past the TSE Venus in the 11th house, so that also tends to be a bullish influence. 14,500 is possible here, but look for gains to fade by Friday although we should finish higher on the week.

As predicted, the Euro fell sharply last week and opens Monday at 1.5424. I think the downtrend will continue although not as strongly or as deliberately. Monday and Tuesday look like days of consolidation for the Euro so we may see it bounce back up to 1.55 intraday. Towards the end of the week, however, the US dollar will rally once again so 1.53 or below is very much on the table.

As predicted, Oil fell back from last week's highs and opens at $116. I correctly foresaw the dip down to $110, although Friday's recovery was somewhat surprising. I'm still very bearish on Oil both short and medium term and I think we are heading for $90 or less at some point in June. This week may only see relatively small declines to $112-114 and at least one big up day is still likely. Tr Mars has yet to get close enough to the natal Moon-Saturn to make the break below $110.

As predicted, Gold came down sharply and reached our target of $850 on Thursday. It starts the week at $857. I'm still bearish for Gold in the short term but this week may see it stay near current levels. Monday will probably see it fall further, perhaps below $850. We might make $830 a possible downside target somewhere along the line, although this seems like a worse case scenario. At some point, I think a $20 gain is possible but any rally likely won't stick. We should end the week lower overall.

Friday, May 2, 2008

NY holds onto gains

As a potentially bullish indicator, American markets held onto yesterday's gains as the Dow closed above the critical psychological level of 13,000 and the S&P closed above 1400. Even more importantly, both averages closed above their 200-day moving average which ought to have made investors giddy at the prospect of even higher highs. Today's job report was much better than forecast as the US economy only lost 20,000 jobs in the past month. For all these positive indicators, however, one gets the sense that the market isn't brimming with optimism. Trading volumes are down since March and market breadth is not a favourable as it might be if a significant bull run is imminent. In other words, there is good reason to believe that this rise is petering out and bumping up against resistance levels here. As a side note, I would add that Warren Buffet meets with Berkshire-Hathaway investors in Omaha tomorrow. It will be interesting to see if the implied pessimism of the Mercury-Saturn square on Saturday carries over in his message.

While I've been mistakenly bearish in the face of the past couple weeks of rising prices, I am maintaining my generally bearish stance. Saturn's turns direct today and will oppose the S&P Mercury. Jupiter turns retrograde next Friday the 9th which may also change the hitherto bullish market sentiment. Monday May 12th looks particularly volatile on the downside. After the lows are made somewhere between May 15-25, I think we see another meaningful rally that approaches current levels. This will set the stage in mid to late June for a more substantial correction that retests the winter lows.