Sunday, May 18, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of May 19 -23

New York is coming off an up week and opens Monday at 12,986/1425. My forecast ran aground on the expectation of an early week sell off which did not materialize. In hindsight, much of the rise can be attributed to the transiting Sun-Jupiter trine which overrode any afflictions in the SPX chart. The late-week rise on the Sun-Moon-Jupiter grand trine was in keeping with the forecast, however, but by then the market was already on firmer territory.

While the Venus-Jupiter trine has perfected Sunday, I think there may be enough optimism left in the separating aspect to move prices up into Monday. The bullish move will likely be further supported by the Moon's aspect to Venus at the start of trading. Venus squares Neptune on Tuesday, however, which might be a time for an unsustainable rally which ultimately fails by the close. Transiting Venus also conjoins the natal Mercury in the 1792 chart, so that is probably another boost for the market mid-week. More negatively, the Sun will be in square aspect to Saturn on Thursday and Friday, so both those days may see the market under water, although Friday is worse. On balance the up momentum is significant this week, so we may close up overall, although not by much given Friday's probable decline. Things look more troubled next week as Mercury turns retrograde on Monday. This is can be a factor that reverses the prevailing trend, and since we've been moving up recently, it's reasonable to see this is as a bearish signal. Another important dimension to this retrograde station is that it occurs in close aspect to Rahu. This intensifies the feelings of unease and uncertainty connected with trading and may correspond to significant computer glitches as well. Moreover, Monday the 26th will feature Venus in square aspect to Saturn and Sun in tight aspect with the natal Rahu of the 1792 chart. Overall, not a good mix.

The Euro opens at 1.5576, up almost a full cent on the week. Although it was down below 1.54 intraday early in the week, I underestimated the bullish effects of the partile Tr. Uranus conjunction to natal Jupiter. As transiting lagna lord Mercury slows down, it comes under the aspect of the natal Ketu, which is a negative influence. This may be held off for part of the week by the bullish effect of transiting Sun and Venus in the 9th house of the natal chart. But here only Monday and Friday look positive. My best guess is that the Euro will finish down for the week, possibly below 1.55.

Oil continues to defy my bearish expectations as it finished above $126 once again. While it did touch below $122 earlier in the week, it bounced right back, fueled by ongoing speculation and the cheerleading provided by Goldman Sachs. It seems that the transiting Mercury to the ascendant of the futures chart was not price neutral after all. It's still pretty close to the ascendant this week, so I'm reluctant to predict any major declines and we may see $130. The presence of the Rahu aspect to Mercury says nothing, if not "speculation". I don't fully understand why the tr Mars to the futures Moon-Saturn has not provided enough downside pressure on prices. Perhaps it's a case of just being offset by Mercury hovering close to the ascendant. We may have to wait for Mercury to turn retrograde on the 26th and thereby turn away from the ascendant and out of Rahu's influence for prices to fall significantly. This is likely going to be very volatile for a few weeks as long as Mercury is within range of Rahu.

Gold opens at $899, up modestly from the previous week. I had thought trading would be choppy with early week weakness and that wasn't entirely off the mark, although the size of the swings surprised me. Monday looks good as Tr. Moon opposes Venus in soft aspect to the natal Venus in the futures chart. Midweek looks more problematic as Mercury opposes the Pluto in the ETF chart. Overall, I think Gold finishes lower on the week, but there are enough upward signals here to warrant some daily up moves, too.