Sunday, May 25, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of May 26 - 30

New York finished the week down over 3%, closing at 12,479 on the Dow and 1375 on the SPX. While I had foreseen this decline, I had thought we would be spared the brunt of it until Thursday or Friday and into next week. As it happened, the decline came early on Wednesday and pushed the markets decisively below key resistance levels. I think we have some more downside left on this move down this week. The Mercury retrograde station on Monday looms large in this respect, even if it falls on a day when the markets are closed. Tuesday and Wednesday therefore look most vulnerable to sell offs. On Tuesday, Venus squares Saturn while Moon opposes Saturn, a very difficult pattern and points to a significant loss, most likely greater than 1%, perhaps as high as 2%. This should set the tone for the rest of the week and we should finish lower across the board. There's a chance that the March lows will be re-tested here, but it's more likely we'll see between 1320-1330 as an intraday bottom and finishing somewhat above that. The following week looks strong, so look the market to attempt yet another rally.

The Euro is coming off a strong week and starts Monday at 1.5755. While I had spotted the supporting influence of Sun and Venus in the 9th house, my forecast for a down week was off the mark as the stationing Mercury did not suffer any ill effects from the natal Ketu. The current uptrend is likely to continue next week as the Venus in Taurus still sits very close to the 9th house cusp. Thursday may be the best day, as Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter.

As predicted, Oil continued its march ever upward and we did easily pass $130. After the high of $135 on Wednesday, the market showed signs of weakening as the rally on Friday only got it back to $132. Given the central role of the stationing Mercury to this price spike, I am eager to see what the market looks like on the other side of Monday's station. There's a good chance that the reversal in Mercury's direction may be reflected in a similar reversal of the upward trend. I think a large move back under $130 is a plausible scenario for the week, with a possible upturn by Friday. Overall, I think the week looks negative but we'll probably see another large rally by the second week of June.

Despite my negative outlook, Gold is coming off a bullish week and opens trading at $925. I think it's likely to repeat this performance and may end up bumping up against resistance levels in the $940-950 range. Tr Sun and Venus are moving closer to the trinal aspect of natal Jupiter in the ETF chart which is a positive signal. The following week or two will see Gold fall back towards $900, however, as the consolidation process continues.