Despite last week's prediction to the contrary, New York is coming off another good week as it finished at or above some key resistance levels. The Dow opens at 13,058, the SPX at 1413. While closes above these levels should be seen as bullish indicators, it's important to note that low volume and iffy market breadth have made them less than convincing signs that we've definitely broken out of the current trading range. We're sitting in between some big planetary direction changes now as Saturn turned direction on Friday, while Jupiter turns retrograde on Friday. So a holding pattern may be the most likely outcome with no big moves either way. I think the coming week will likely see the market stay at or near these levels, with a bias to the upside. I would say there's a 30% chance we'll see 13,400/1450 at some point this week, and only a 20% chance to see any intraday below 12,800/1390. Monday looks like heavy trading on the upside as tr Mercury conjoins the SPX ascendant.
I am still maintaining a bearish stance here, however, so I would be cautious about going long in this market especially at these relatively lofty levels. The next key date I'm looking is May 12th, when tr Mercury opposes the SPX Saturn and tr Mars and tr Saturn both line up a 7 degrees of their respective signs -- both aspecting the SPX Mercury. I don't know how deep the next leg down will be, but it should take us at least half way back to the key support levels. The markets could start to lose ground towards the end of this week in anticipation for sharper declines in the week of the 12th.
Bombay is coming off a good week and the Sensex opens Monday at 17,600. I can't see any reason for the uptrend to change so we will likely see 18k at some point. In the Nifty Futures chart, for example, tr second lord Sun is dispositor of bhukti lord Saturn is conjunct the 10th house cusp early in the week. Tr 11th lord Venus is applying to this favourable position, while Mercury transits through the 11th house of gains. While I still believe that this is nothing but a bear market rally, I am loath to bet against it this week.
Tokyo broke through 14k level last week and opens Monday at 14,049. Tr Mars crosses the TSE ascendant early in the week and yet this is unlikely to cause much turbulence because tr Moon, Sun, and Venus will closely conjoin the TSE Mars in Aries. On Monday, tr Mercury will be just past the TSE Venus in the 11th house, so that also tends to be a bullish influence. 14,500 is possible here, but look for gains to fade by Friday although we should finish higher on the week.
As predicted, the Euro fell sharply last week and opens Monday at 1.5424. I think the downtrend will continue although not as strongly or as deliberately. Monday and Tuesday look like days of consolidation for the Euro so we may see it bounce back up to 1.55 intraday. Towards the end of the week, however, the US dollar will rally once again so 1.53 or below is very much on the table.
As predicted, Oil fell back from last week's highs and opens at $116. I correctly foresaw the dip down to $110, although Friday's recovery was somewhat surprising. I'm still very bearish on Oil both short and medium term and I think we are heading for $90 or less at some point in June. This week may only see relatively small declines to $112-114 and at least one big up day is still likely. Tr Mars has yet to get close enough to the natal Moon-Saturn to make the break below $110.
As predicted, Gold came down sharply and reached our target of $850 on Thursday. It starts the week at $857. I'm still bearish for Gold in the short term but this week may see it stay near current levels. Monday will probably see it fall further, perhaps below $850. We might make $830 a possible downside target somewhere along the line, although this seems like a worse case scenario. At some point, I think a $20 gain is possible but any rally likely won't stick. We should end the week lower overall.
