Gold falls below $1700 as the dollar rallies on reopening hopes

(31 March 2021) It seems nobody likes gold these days.  Bitcoin grabs all the headlines as it approaches $60,000, while gold has been in decline ever since its record high of $2089 last August.  More recently, gold has trended lower as optimism surrounding the vaccine rollout and economic re-opening has bid up the US dollar and taken bond yields sharply higher.  Typically, gold is inversely correlated with the dollar and long term yields. 

This week gold retested its early March low of 1673 before rebounding today to $1715.   Gold's weakness this week is a reflection of difficult planetary set ups.  In terms of transits, both the Sun and Venus are under affliction by Saturn and Ketu (South Lunar Node). 

As a general rule of thumb, the price of gold tends to fall when either the Sun or Venus comes under the influence of malefics such as Saturn or Ketu.  Conversely, if the Sun or Venus is well-placed and associated with benefic planets like Jupiter or Mercury, prices tends to rise.  As it happens this week, the Sun and Venus are closely conjunct in Pisces and thus both planets form bearish alignments with Saturn and Ketu. 

In addition, the gold natal horoscope (Sep 12, 1919) lacks any strong bullish influences this week.  In fact, there are some significant medium term bearish influences in effect here as transiting Saturn is opposite Jupiter-Neptune-Mars while Neptune is opposite the natal Sun-Venus conjunction.

In the near term, it's a mixed picture.   Next week, we can see that the Sun and Venus will conjoin with the natal Moon (26 Pisces) while Mars will aspect the Sun-Venus conjunction in Leo.  The Mars influence looks negative, especially since it will activate the ongoing Neptune opposition.  However, the Sun-Venus conjunction with the Moon should bring some upside.

Looking a bit further ahead, it is hard to see gold rallying strongly as long as Saturn is opposite the natal Jupiter-Neptune-Mars conjunction.    This Saturn influence could be a persistent headwind for gold, perhaps until it turns retrograde on May 23.  That said, Jupiter's entry into sidereal Aquarius (April 5) should improve the outlook somewhat in April but it may not be enough to power a significant rally just yet.


Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks remain near their all-time highs this week with the announcement of the Biden infrastructure plan.   The early week pullback did reflect a bit of the bearish energy of the Saturn aspect on the Sun and Venus, although the pullback was more modest than expected.   Stocks rebounded yet again today as Jupiter's bullish influence was activated through its alignment with Mercury and Neptune.  Next week looks less favourable, however, as Mars squares Neptune. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Bond yields remain elevated as Fed warns on inflation

  (24 March 2021) Bond yields have moved back up to their pre-Covid levels in recent weeks as investors reassess inflation risks amid the optimism of the vaccine rollout and the growing prospects for economic recovery.  Yesterday, Fed Chair Jay Powell cautioned that inflation would likely rise this year but it would be "transitory" and unlikely to last.   That may well be, but financial markets will likely have the last word in the matter as commodity prices have soared in 2021 and there are increasing number of reports of material shortages and production bottlenecks.

While rising bond yields can be positive and reflect a return to normal, they also may introduce a new logic for investors.  Suddenly, the 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.62% which is about equal to the dividend yield of the S&P 500.  If yields can stabilize in this 1.5-2% area, then that would suggest a diminishing fear of inflation.  And that could make Treasuries more attractive relative to stocks, which could produce some downside for equities as portfolios are rebalanced.

In a post from late February, I suggested that bond yields were unlikely to rise too much further in the month of March.  In fact, yields on the 10-year have risen another 15 basis points so that forecast was somewhat wide of the mark.  That said, yields have retreated somewhat this week as stocks have pulled back, with the 10-year yield falling from a high of 1.74% on March 19 to today's print of 1.62%.  If I am reading the US Treasuries horoscope correctly, I think yields are likely to fall further in the near term. 

As I noted previously, Jupiter will likely to play a more important role in the Treasuries horoscope here in March and into April.  Jupiter is a positive planet, of course, so its influence would likely accompany a rise in the value in bonds and hence a decline in yields.   Jupiter has cast its 120-degree aspect on the Midheaven (10th house cusp) in the chart and is now conjunct the equal 6th house cusp at 27 Capricorn -- and hence it is aligned with the Ascendant at 27 Leo.  This is one key reason why bonds have rallied this week. 

We can also see that Mercury is due to conjoin Neptune and align with Jupiter and the Ascendant early next week.  While Neptune isn't bullish by itself, it becomes bullish when it is aligned with Jupiter and other positive planets such as Mercury.  I would therefore expect yields to fall further next week on this alignment.  

And we should also note that the Jupiter-Neptune-Mercury combination will align not only with the Ascendant (27 Leo) and equal house cusps, but also with natal Mercury (27 Leo), Saturn (28 Cancer) Venus (29 Gemini) and Mars (0 Gemini).  Although only Mars is the traditional 5th house aspect, the exactness of the multi-planet degreewise alignment should be seen as an overall plus for bonds. 

Since the recent fall in yields has coincided with some modest declines in stocks, if yields were to fall further for whatever reason (weak economic data, a Covid setback, etc.) this would likely coincide with more weakness in stocks.  Let's see how it all shakes out. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Markets rally after dovish Fed promises no hikes until 2023

  (17 March 2021) To no one's surprise, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has refilled the punch bowl yet again.   In today's FOMC meeting, Powell reaffirmed his commitment to an ultra-loose monetary policy of zero percent interest rates and $120 Billion a month in QE asset purchases.  Despite recent inflation worries and sharply rising bond yields, Powell asserted there would be no rate hikes until 2023 at the earliest.  Markets rallied modestly to new all-time highs as investors anticipated stronger growth in a post-Covid world.

Jupiter is still very much in the driver's seat here.  Since Jupiter is a bullish influence, markets tends to rise whenever it forms a close alignment with a slower-moving outer planet. This seems to be the case at the moment as Jupiter approaches its 30-degree alignment with Neptune, which is exact on March 20.  While this is not a major Jupiter aspect by either Vedic or Western reckoning, angular separations of any 30-degree multiples can often coincide with a rise in stock prices.

However, once the Jupiter-Neptune alignment begins to separate on March 21, the probability of further gains will begin to diminish.  While this often manifests as an gradual shift in relative positive and negative energies, sometimes there is a sudden reversal immediately after the exact aspect, as if flicking a switch.  In other words, aspects can play out in different ways depending on other factors. 

The condition of Saturn is another component in this equation.  If markets tend to rise with a Jupiter alignment, markets tend to fall when Saturn is more prominent.  As it happens, there is a Saturn aspect upcoming fairly soon.  On April 9, Saturn is due to form a 120-degree alignment with Rahu, the North Lunar Node.  In traditional Vedic astrology, both Saturn and Rahu are considered malefic planets which tend to deliver negative or otherwise unwanted outcomes when they are under affliction.   In market terms, their aspects are more likely to be associated with declines than gains. 

While the exact aspect is still more than three weeks away, there is often some preceding downside, much like periods of rain precede the arrival of the center of a storm.  Next week could well see some early rain in that respect as Mars approaches a conjunction with Rahu and thereby activating a larger alignment with Saturn.  In that scenario, since all three planets involved are natural malefics, the downside risk rises further. 

And we see that next week's Mars-Rahu conjunction could have a significant impact on the horoscope of the blue chip S&P 500 Index (March 4, 1957).  Both Mars and Rahu are setting up opposite natal Saturn (20 Scorpio) and square the Sun (20 Aquarius).  It is very difficult to see the current rally continuing through these malefic influences. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil. 

Dow hits new record high as Congress passes stimulus bill

 (10 March 2021) US stocks rebounded strongly from last week's lows as Congress finally passed the $1.9 Trillion Covid stimulus bill today.  President Biden is expected to sign it into law on Friday.  This bullish outcome was not unexpected as I noted in last week's update that bullish Jupiter would likely assume a greater influence on sentiment this week.  Stocks began their rebound when Jupiter conjoined Mercury last Friday (March 5).  The market rallied further this week as Jupiter formed a 30 degree alignment with Sun and approached another 30-degree alignment with Neptune.

The month of March is shaping up to be a battle royale between bullish Jupiter and bearish Saturn.  March began with some apparent additional fallout from the ongoing Saturn-Uranus alignment that was exact on Feb 17 -- just one day after the interim high on the S&P 500. But this week's rebound suggests that Jupiter may be gaining the upper hand over Saturn.  Aside from the quick alignments with fast-moving planets like Mercury and the Sun, Jupiter's upcoming alignment with the slower-moving Neptune is potentially more powerful. 

As a rule of thumb, alignments involving slower-moving planets have a greater effect than alignments involving faster-moving planets.  Therefore, the exact Jupiter-Neptune alignment on March 20 hints at further upside later next week.  We should also note that the 30-degree Jupiter-Neptune alignment could resonate with the 30-degree Uranus-Chiron alignment.  Whenever planetary pairs have the same angular separation, their energies are more likely to resonate and reinforce one another.  And with Jupiter involved, the amplification is more likely to be positive for stocks. 

In the meantime, however, stocks may become more vulnerable to pullbacks.  Last week, I noted the tense conjunction of Mars to the Ascendant of the S&P 500 horoscope late this week.  We can also see some potential trouble in the 1792 NYSE horoscope. Mars forms an exact 120-degree alignment with Rahu (North Lunar Node) while the Sun-Neptune conjunction at 26-27 Aquarius occurs exactly opposite Mars (27 Leo).  So a pullback may be in the cards.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks volatile on bond and inflation worries

  (3 March 2021) Stocks are looking more vulnerable in recent days in the wake of last week's bond market scare.  The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has remained elevated after the spike to 1.6% as investors are growing increasingly nervous about inflationary pressures.  After the recent rally in commodities such as oil, lumber and copper, the bond market is starting to price in higher inflation as rising costs will be passed on to consumers.  Bond buyers are therefore demanding a higher risk premium and this is pushing up interest rates at the long end of the curve.  Significantly higher interest rates are the last thing the economy needs right now as highly-leveraged companies could soon find it difficult to service their debt.

The planetary influences look quite mixed here as we begin the month of March.  The market is still off its mid-February high which coincided almost exactly to the Saturn-Uranus square alignment.  The subsequent pullback was not unexpected although it is less clear exactly when the down trend will end.  As I noted in an earlier post, previous Saturn-Uranus squares resulted in sizable declines of 10% and 25% in the days following the exact aspect.  So it is definitely possible we could be on the verge of a larger pullback in the coming days.

However, there is a significant Jupiter influence here in early March which seems likely to coincide with some upside.  Monday's sharp rise was a manifestation of this Jupiter influence as it approached it conjunction with Mercury and alignment with the Moon and Rahu (North Lunar Node).  More bullish Jupiter energy is more likely to occur again late this week around the time of the exact Mercury-Jupiter conjunction. 

We can also see that Jupiter will align with the Sun and Neptune heading into next week.  This is another largely positive influence which seems likely to correspond with some gains. In a way, we can say that Jupiter and Saturn are vying for dominance in early March.  Saturn's bearish influence remains a force to be reckoned with as today's decline coincided with the Venus alignment with Saturn and Uranus.  However, the ongoing proximity of Jupiter to Mercury, and then Neptune and the Sun next week, suggests that stocks are less likely to simply sell-off sharply from here.  The tug-of-war between bullish Jupiter and bearish Saturn is therefore likely to continue for a while yet.

The horoscope of the S&P 500 Index reflects this very mixed picture.  The Jupiter-Mercury conjunction forms a 60-degree alignment with the natal Moon later this week and argues for a recovery from today's selling.  However, Ketu (South Lunar Node) is quickly approaching its bearish conjunction with Saturn at 20 Scorpio.  This conjunction is essentially active now although since Ketu moves slowly it may not fully manifest for another week or two.  Another potential warning sign is that Mars is approaching a conjunction with the Ascendant of the chart at 11 Taurus.  Mars is usually a bearish influence, especially if it occurs when the chart is simultaneously afflicted by other malefics, as is the case here with Ketu to Saturn.  For the record, Mars is exactly conjunct the Ascendant next Friday March 12.  The tug-of-war continues. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.