China stocks plunge after government tightens regulations

(29 July 2021) Stocks have fallen sharply in China and Hong Kong this week after the government tightened regulations governing education, real estate and technology firms.  The Shanghai Composite Index had fallen by as much as 7% by Wednesday although it managed a modest recovery today.  Bonds and the yuan also sold off as investors rushed to the exits as the CCP sought to assert its ultimate control over the freewheeling private sector.  While many Western stock markets are trading near record highs, China's market peaked in February and has trended lower ever since. 

The decline comes as some analysts have expressed concern about a possible bubble in China's property market as government stimulus and lax lending practices have pushed prices to new highs.   While Beijing has a keen interest in keeping its economy humming along, it may be sacrificing the stock market here in order to push the yuan lower.  A lower yuan makes exports cheaper and would be one way to generate future economic growth.

We can see the contours of this week's sell-off in the horoscope of the Shanghai Stock Exchange (December 19, 1990, 9.30 am).   The Ascendant (13 Capricorn) is under severe stress this week from the conjunction of transiting Saturn and the 120 degree aspect from Rahu (North Lunar Node).  Saturn has been within close range of the Ascendant for several months and is one reason why Chinese stocks have been mostly bearish in 2021. 

Saturn's malefic impact was likely triggered by the approaching opposition aspect of the Sun and Mercury.  Although Saturn is still three degrees from an exact conjunction with the Ascendant, faster-moving planets like the Sun and Mercury typically act as a catalyst for the release of Saturn's bearish potential.  In addition, we can see that the Rahu-Ascendant aspect is within just one degree and therefore also partakes in some of that triggering energy of the Sun this week.  The Mars-Jupiter opposition is an added burden on this chart as it aligns exactly with the natal Mars at 5 Taurus.

Based on this chart, the outlook for Chinese stocks is challenging.  Over the next two months, retrograde Saturn will continue to back into a more exact conjunction with the Ascendant.  Saturn is due to station direct in early October at 12 Capricorn -- just one degree past the Ascendant at 13 Capricorn.  Rahu will also close in on a more precise aspect during August.  Overall, it seems likely that stocks in Shanghai will remain under pressure for some time yet.  The immediate future is mixed as Mercury is due to oppose bearish Saturn early next week which may again negatively activate the Ascendant.  However, the lessening of the Mars affliction suggests some chances for a rebound. 


Market Forecast for week of August 2-6

 US stocks have been mixed so far this week.  While we did see some early week selling, the Fed carefully avoided any surprises yesterday.  I thought we might have seen some downside given today's Mars-Jupiter opposition but so far markets still look mostly bullish.  As I noted in last week's post, however, the negative effects of the Mars-Jupiter opposition are usually extended across several days at least.  Therefore, it would be premature to assess its impact after just one day. 

Next week could see some further volatility, especially early in the week as the Sun and Mercury oppose Saturn.  However, the second half of the week may be more positive as Mercury aligns with Venus.


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Delta variant complicates outlook ahead of Fed meeting

(22 July 2021) It seems the pandemic is not going to end any time soon.  The spread of the Delta variant in many countries has dampened hopes for a quick re-opening this summer.  More countries are being forced to make difficult choices between re-opening and trying to limit new infections despite increasing numbers of vaccinations.  Since unvaccinated people are vulnerable to infection by the more transmissible Delta variant, hospitals may come under renewed stress in the near term.

The new global increase of infections complicates matters for the Fed as it looks towards its next FOMC meeting on Wednesday, July 28.   The Federal Reserve is keen to address recent inflationary pressures, however "transitory" they may be.   A growing number of Fed governors are looking towards tapering their QE purchases of assets later this year in an attempt to cool off the red hot housing market in the US.  Observers were therefore looking at this upcoming meeting for a possible change in language on tapering, including clues for when tapering may begin. 

However, the new surge of infections in the US, UK and many other countries suggest that re-opening is not a done deal.  While growth may be returning for now, additional lockdowns are possible, along with their attendant suppression of economic activity.  The problem here is that a tighter Fed that is tapering asset purchases may suddenly be out of step with a fourth summer Covid wave that would put the economy on its heels once again. 

Markets are now showing signs of unease with the implications of the Delta variant as volatility has increased in recent days.  The multi-day pullback coincided with the entry of Mars into Leo and its subsequent alignment with Pluto.  The midweek rebound appeared to reflect a more favourable alignment of the Sun, Venus and Jupiter.

But the outlook is quite uncertain next week as Mars is due to oppose Jupiter on Thursday, just one day after the FOMC meeting.  Mars-Jupiter oppositions occur once every two years and tend to be bearish in their effects.  However, it is important to note that possible negative effects may not manifest on the exact day of the opposition but may be spread out in the days prior and (more likely) following the opposition.  The previous Mars-Jupiter opposition occurred on May 5, 2019 and coincided the start of the 7% decline in US stocks.  Before that, Mars opposed Jupiter on Feb 27, 2017.  However, on this occasion stocks went most sideways, both before and after opposition. 

Mars also opposed Jupiter on Jan 1, 2015 and marked the start of a 5% decline in stocks.  Preceding that, Mars opposed Jupiter on Oct 28, 2012 just days before stocks fell 3%.  And before that, the Mars-Jupiter opposition on Aug 4, 2010 coincided with the start of a 7% pullback.

So while the Mars-Jupiter opposition is not always bearish in its effects -- either immediate or proximate -- there is a distinct tendency for pessimism around that time.  As a malefic planet, Mars tends to undermine confidence and optimism, which is represented by Jupiter.  Therefore, the fact that the Mars-Jupiter opposition occurs the day after next week's FOMC meeting suggests a greater probability of a negative market reaction to the Fed decision. 


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Photo Credit: Deidre Smith/U.S. Navy

 

A still-divided republic: the US under Biden

 (15 July 2021) "A house divided against itself cannot stand."   With these words uttered in 1858, the future President Abraham Lincoln warned of the coming US civil war.  Borne of a violent war of independence against Britain, the US was never going to be a mild-mannered country.  The bloody Civil War (1860-1865) seemed to only cement its cultural proclivity for bold action and conflict, if deemed necessary.  

Nowadays, we can see that the US is becoming an increasingly divided country once again as the two warring political parties appear more polarized than ever.  This division took root under George W. Bush and Barack Obama, only to see the Trump presidency amplify it even further.  Despite Joe Biden's promise as a moderating force after the raucous Trump years, America remains as divided as ever.  If anything, the pandemic has likely deepened the cultural divide between liberal Democrats and conservative Republicans, as cooperation and compromise is in short supply on every conceivable issue -- Covid, the economy, censorship, climate change, and race relations. 

From an astrological perspective, the Biden presidency seems unlikely to mend any fences.  One key data point in this respect is the Inauguration chart for noon, January 20, 2021.  The presidential swearing-in horoscope is a symbolic representation of the themes that will be prominent for the next four years.  As I have previously noted, the Biden Inauguration chart is very afflicted.  

Aggressive Mars forms an exact conjunction with unstable Uranus in the 1st house in Aries.  This is a pattern that points to potentially historic events unfolding during Biden's term.  The Mars-Uranus combination is usually associated with conflict and violence, especially since it is placed here in the 1st house of the body/nation.  This placement definitely increases the likelihood of some kind of military action between 2021 and 2024.  In addition, however, the involvement of the 1st house could mean that the conflict could be focused within the nation itself.

One key time window to watch for is this coming September and October.  At that time, Saturn is due to station direct at 12 Capricorn, thus forming an exact 90-degree square alignment with Mars and Uranus.  Saturn is a malefic planet which is often implicated in difficult situations.  In this instance, it should be seen as a catalyst or trigger for the powder keg of Mars-Uranus energy.  Moreover, transiting Rahu will form a 120 degree aspect with Saturn and the Sun in the 10th house.  Like Saturn, Rahu is considered a natural malefic which can cause problems.   Since the 10th house represents government and leaders, the Rahu influence could symbolize a disruption of the US government in some way. 

The Biden presidency may therefore come under intense stress with these two simultaneous aspects.  As I have suggested before, Biden himself may be the focus of attention here, as these afflictions may bring major political changes.   One possible scenario could be his resignation although other scenarios are also very possible.  In any event, these stresses seem likely to amplify the political and cultural divisions in the US. 


Weekly Market Forecast

Stocks have remained near their record highs this week despite ongoing inflation concerns.  For now, the Fed seems content with monitoring the situation without actually providing any details on when tapering of its QE asset purchases may begin.  This is good news for investors as the endless injections of government and central bank cash keeps stock prices inflated alongside most other things in the economy. 

Next week could see a bit more uncertainty enter into the market, however, as Mars enters Leo and aligns with Pluto.  And using somewhat broader parameters, Mars will also form minor alignments with Rahu and Saturn early next week.  Overall, this seems more likely to coincide with some downside.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks fall on Delta variant fears

(8 July 2021) US stocks tumbled today on fears the spread of the Delta variant could upset summer reopening plans.   Some investors hit the sell button today after weighing the possibility of more lockdowns despite the largely successful vaccination programs in the US and Europe.   This bearish beginning to the month of July is not too surprising given approaching Venus-Mars conjunction which is exact on Tuesday, July 13.

July as a whole may be somewhat vulnerable to declines due to the extended alignment between Saturn and Rahu, the North Lunar Node.  Both of these malefic planets are now moving backwards while maintaining a very close 120 degree separation within just two degrees of orb.   This extended angular relationship could damage sentiment over the next several weeks. 

Moreover, we can see that this malefic alignment will activate the horoscope of the Nasdaq stock index.   The growth-oriented Nasdaq has been outperforming other indexes recently as bond yields have fallen in anticipation of transitory inflation and a possible Fed tapering of QE asset purchases later this year.  The current planetary afflictions in the chart are fairly clear.  Saturn is forming in a near-exact conjunction with the natal Sun (18 Capricorn) while Rahu is within one-degree of conjoining the natal Moon (15 Taurus).  Both are destabilizing influences that reduce the probability for a continuation of the recent rally. 

And since both Saturn and Rahu move quite slowly -- just one degree every three weeks at their current velocities -- the dual afflictions to the natal Sun and Moon will remain in place for a while longer.   Typically, aspects are strongest when exact and begin to weaken when they begin to separate.  Here we have a more complex set up since Saturn is already separating (i.e. a lessening negative influence) from its conjunction with the Sun while Rahu is still approaching its conjunction with the Moon (i.e. an increasing negative influence).  This very mixed picture nonetheless should give bulls pause in the near term. 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.

Trump organization indicted for tax fraud

 (1 July 2021) Donald Trump's fortunes have taken a turn for the worse.  The organization that bears the name of the former US president was indicted for tax fraud this week by the New York district attorney.  On Thursday, the Trump organization CFO Allen Weisselberg pleaded not guilty to the charge.  Since Donald Trump was not named in the indictment, he is unlikely to be subject to direct punishment, however.

While Trump has denounced the investigation as a political witch hunt, it seems likely to damage his reputation and could hamper any potential presidential run in 2024.  Political betting markets now have Florida Governor Ron DeSantis pulling ahead of Trump as the favored GOP nominee in 2024, 29% to 26%. 

This most recent setback for Trump is reflected in his horoscope.  In a January post, I suggested that the first half of 2021 could be quite difficult for him, especially between April and June, and that legal troubles were possible.  He was running an underwhelming Jupiter-Saturn dasha period while Saturn stationed retrograde exactly opposite his 12th house Pluto in May.  In addition, Ketu aspected his Pluto at the same time while Neptune squared his natal Sun (29 Taurus).   As it happens, Trump's Jupiter-Saturn period actually ended on June 1 according to the Krishnamurti ayanamsha which I generally favor, although it ends in July with Lahiri.  It is quite possible that Trump likely knew of the coming indictment several weeks ago, perhaps closer to the time of the Saturn Rx station on May 23.

From the chart, we can see that all of those afflictions are still within range as Saturn, Ketu and Neptune haven't moved much in recent weeks.  We should also note that today's indictment coincided with Mars' conjunction with his natal Pluto, thus creating a very powerful opposition with transiting Saturn.

Looking ahead, I think Trump could remain on the defensive for the rest of July.  Minor dasha lord Mercury will transit the 12th house and will conjoin Pluto (along with the Sun) opposite Saturn on August 1.  At the same time, Mars will conjoins his Ascendant and oppose transiting Jupiter.  This could signify an impactful event that may resolve his legal situation one way or the other.  Given the active alignments, outcomes are unlikely to be positive.  Now just what this may represent is harder to say.  Weisselberg may be found guilty or could take a plea bargain for a lesser charge.  A plea bargain would be potentially worse for Trump since he could flip and implicate Trump directly. 

While it doesn't look good, I still think Trump's fortunes are likely to improve starting in August and especially in September and October.  On the whole, the Jupiter-Mercury dasha period is quite positive for the next two years or so, especially since Trump's Mercury is very well-placed in its own sign in the 11th house of gains.  Also, transiting Jupiter will station in a close 120 degree alignment with his Sun (and Rahu and Uranus) in October.  This suggests a significant boost in his status relative to the preceding period.  So in the event that Trump loses the indictment case in the summer, he is likely to avoid any worst-case scenarios because of this beneficial Jupiter transit.  Alternatively, it could coincide with a major new political or business opportunity for him.   I would definitely not count him out. 


Weekly Market Forecast
 
Stocks have remained in their summer melt-up mode for yet another week as inflation fears have receded.  I had thought we might have seen more volatility this week given the rare Mars-Saturn-Uranus alignment.  Thus far, this pattern hasn't produced much of anything as trading volumes fall in advance of the July 4 holiday.  One possible explanation for the absence of any negative outcomes is that Chiron is forming a 60-degree angle with Saturn.  Since Chiron does not form a more malefic hard angle (90,180 degrees) with Saturn, it may be having a softening effect on the whole configuration.

Despite the absence of any bearish developments this week, the alignment still carries some downside risk as we head into next week.  Venus approaches its conjunction with Mars (bearish bias) and thereby opposes Saturn on Tuesday.   While further upside would not be surprising later in the week, the month of July overall seems increasingly vulnerable to declines as Saturn aligns closely with Rahu (North Lunar Node). 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   I outline the key technical and planetary influences for US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, as well as currencies, gold and oil.