Lunar eclipse casts shadow over US midterm elections

 

(26 October 2022)  With the approach the US midterm elections on Nov 8, polls are predicting a close race with Republicans (GOP) enjoying a slight edge.   Held two years after the presidential election, the midterms determine which party controls the two houses of Congress.  Currently, Democrats control both the House and the Senate, albeit by the narrowest of margins in the case of the Senate.  Polls are showing the GOP will easily win the House of Representatives, but the Senate looks much tighter.  Polls over the past two weeks have shown the GOP gaining ground on the Democrats with some aggregators now predicting a narrow GOP win with 51 or 52 seats out of 100.

From an astrological perspective, the Democrats definitely look vulnerable.  President Joe Biden’s chart is significantly afflicted during the run-up to the Nov 8 election.  Transiting Ketu is conjunct his natal Mars (19 Libra) in his 12th house of loss.  Ketu (South Lunar Node) is a natural malefic that symbolizes fast-changing and chaotic situations and its combination with a 12th house Mars looks difficult for Biden and the Democrats. Of course, the Ketu-Mars transit may not necessarily relate to the election result but given the importance of the election for the Biden platform, it nonetheless argues for a major setback for the Democrats.

Saturn (24 Capricorn), now having completed its retrograde cycle, is still locked in a heavy square aspect to Biden’s Mercury and Mars.  Given its slow speed and recent retrograde cycle, Saturn has been in this challenging aspect all year and is one obvious reason why Biden’s approval is remains submerged well below 50% as he struggles to deal with the political fallout of rising inflation and his administration’s blank check funding for the war in Ukraine.

One very intriguing fact about the midterm elections is that they will occur on the same day as a lunar eclipse.  On November 8, a lunar eclipse takes place at 21 degrees of sidereal Aries, thus forming an exact square with unpredictable Uranus and a slightly wider square with pessimistic Saturn.   While eclipses are normally associated with disruptions or suspensions of the status quo in any event, this Nov 8 eclipse is front-loaded with a potential for significant disruption and change.

 

But how to interpret this?  I think the most basic point here is that an election day eclipse occurring in an already-afflicted chart of the incumbent party leader strongly indicates a defeat for the Democrats and specifically, the loss of the Senate.  The conjunction by a freshly retrograde Mars to the Ascendant (1 Gemini) and natal Rahu of the horoscope of Vice-President Kamala Harris’ is additional evidence of the Democrats woes here at the end of October and beginning of November.

But at another level, the effect of an election day eclipse could also increase the risk of an uncertain or disputed outcome.  To be sure, contested election results have become all-too-common in the US these days as the patchwork quilt of state election laws make it more likely for the losing side to launch lawsuits and recounts.  So while the planets are pointing towards a Democrat defeat, they also increase the likelihood of some uncertainty that could last beyond election day and may include legal challenges to the outcome.

Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks have been in rebound mode in recent days as inflation fears have subsided somewhat and taken some of the pressure off the Fed.  This week’s rally appeared to coincide with a favorable solar eclipse which conjoined Venus at 8 degrees of sidereal Libra.  Tuesday’s eclipse was within one degree of Venus, which is considered to be a mostly bullish influence on sentiment.  In addition, Saturn has returned to its normal direct motion as of Oct 23 and thus offers a theoretical reason at least for a lessening of pessimism.

However, Mars is about to turn retrograde on Sunday, Oct 30.  Like Saturn, Mars tends to be a bearish planet when it becomes prominent, either by aspect or by condition.  The period around the retrograde station therefore brings an elevated downside risk for stocks.  We also note that this particular station of Mars at 1 Gemini will aspect Pluto within just one degree.  Mars-Pluto aspects tend to be bearish combinations in any event, and if we include the retrograde station into the mix, market risk would seem to be somewhat higher.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Photo Credit: David

Stocks bounce on earnings optimism; UK inflation weighs

 (19 October 2022) Stocks have moved higher this week on optimism that earnings season may bring better than expected results.  However, Wednesday's pullback was a reminder of the fragility of the current rebound as bond yields moved to new highs after UK inflation hit the psychologically important 10% level. 

Nonetheless, this week's bounce is in keeping with our astrological expectations.  First, the entry of Venus into sidereal Libra on Tuesday tends to be bullish, even if this year's ingress was marked by a potentially complicating influence from its simultaneous alignment with Mars.  But last week we also noted the presence of a second bullish influence in the four-planet alignment of Mercury, Venus, Jupiter and Chiron.   On Tuesday, the angular separation of the bullish pairing of Mercury and Venus was 13 degrees.  This matched the angular separation of another bullish pairing of Jupiter and Chiron.  While the week is not yet over, Tuesday was the high of the week and provided some confirmation of the effects of these two different positive influences.

There is some reason to be cautious for the next several sessions.  On the plus side, the Mercury-Venus separation will narrow to 12 degrees but still be within one degree of the Jupiter-Chiron angular separation.  This may act as residual, if declining, bullish sentiment.  Also we should note that the Sun-Mercury angular separation is just a bit under 13 degrees for Thursday's session.  While probably not as positive as Mercury-Venus, this could act as another favourable influence as it resonates with Jupiter and Chiron. 

However, some of this bullish influence could be offset by the square alignment of Sun-Venus with Pluto.  With the Sun and Venus are essentially moving as one in early Libra, the 90-degree alignment with Pluto suggests a more negative mood.  And if we throw in the approaching Saturn direct station on Sunday, Oct 23 which highlights its ongoing square with Uranus, there are also some potentially negative influences to consider here. 

However, on a relative basis, sentiment could be subject to an even greater risk as we approach the Mars retrograde station on Oct 30, when the red planet reverses its apparent motion from forwards to backwards.  Mars is a malefic planet, of course, and the time around its retrograde stations can be volatile, especially if Mars forms alignments with other planets.  This is very much the case here as Mars will cast its full-strength 8th house aspect (i.e. 210 degrees) to Pluto at the end of October.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.


Photo Credit: A. Duarte

US stocks fall to new lows ahead of CPI inflation data

(12 October 2022) US stocks closed at a new low for the year today as wholesale PPI inflation came in higher than expected at 8.5%.  And with the Fed showing no signs of pivoting towards easing any time soon, investors are now considering the very real possibility that interest rates will continue to climb well into 2023. 

This week's decline was not unexpected as it coincided closely with the Mars-Neptune square.  Hard Mars aspects (0, 90 or 180 degrees) have a bearish bias in any event, and this is even more likely when it involves an outer planet like Neptune.   Although it has been within range for the past several days, Mars formed its exact square aspect with Neptune this morning.   It is also worth noting that this was a partial strength backward square alignment rather the full-strength forward square according to Vedic aspecting rules.  Nonetheless, it was clearly bearish in the days leading up to today's theoretical maximum influence.

Tomorrow's CPI inflation number is likely to be a market mover.  I must admit I don't have any strong opinions of how the market will react given the mix of influences.  With Mars now moving past its square with Neptune, there is the possibility of a reduction of negative sentiment which could increase the odds of a rebound.  

Also, the Moon will form a loose alignment with Mercury and Jupiter in the morning which could also be a plus.  But the Venus-Saturn-Uranus alignment is more of a question mark and leaves open the possibility of more downside.  Of course, the underlying Saturn-Uranus square is not doing the markets any favours here, especially as Saturn slows ahead of its direct station on October 23.  But the short term alignments do offer some renewed hope for bulls here. 

Next week, we can see that the entry of Venus into sidereal Libra could throw the bulls a lifeline.  As I have previously noted, the transit of Venus through Virgo, its sign of debilitation, is often marked by market weakness.  This has been the case again this year as markets are trading lower since the entry into Virgo on Sep 24.  But where Virgo is a difficult sign for Venus, Libra tends to be better, especially right around the exact day of the ingress which occurs on Oct 18 this year.  While this isn't always bullish, the correlation is fairly high nonetheless.  If nothing else, it reduces the probability of some downside on that day.  

This year's ingress is a bit more complicated since Venus will align with Mars.  This Mars influence could offset some of the potential positive mood at the start of the week, although it seems less likely to totally negate it.  In addition, we can see that there is a potentially bullish four-planet set up next week.   Mercury and Venus will be separated by 13 degrees, and Jupiter and Chiron will also be separated by 13 degrees.  While Chiron can be either positive or negative in its effects, the other three planets are generally considered benefics and therefore seem more likely to generate some optimism.  These equal angular separations create a kind of bullish resonance among the four planets which make gains more likely during the time of when the angular separations are closest.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks rebound as inflation worries ease

(5 October 2022) US stocks have staged an impressive 5% rebound so far this week after easing inflation concerns saw bond yields and the dollar move sharply lower.  Investors are fixated on inflation since the falling inflation translates into lower bond yields, cheaper credit and greater economic activity.  The Federal Reserve is something of a wild card in this equation, however, as its ultra-hawkish stance this year has arguably made the sell-off worse.  Of course, the Fed's inaction in 2021 allowed inflation and the asset bubble get out of control in the first place.

There are several astrological reasons for this week's rebound.  First, Mercury ended its three-week retrograde cycle over the weekend and returned to direct motion on Sunday.  Mercury, the planet of trading and commerce, tends to be more bullish when it moves forward, although we should note this is usually not a strong influence. More important perhaps was the fact that Mercury began to separate from its opposition with Neptune.  Mercury-Neptune oppositions are usually bearish, especially if Mercury stations retrograde or direct around the time of the opposition.  That was very much the case here as stocks fell through much of last week just before the direct station while Mercury was still approaching its opposition with Neptune.  Sentiment began to improve once the opposition aspect began to separate on Monday.

One other significant reason for this week's gains is due to a bullish midpoint alignment involving Mercury, Venus, Jupiter and Chiron.  While midpoints are not part of traditional Vedic astrology, I have found them to be a useful add-on to more fundamental techniques of analysis.  Specifically, I have found that midpoints that are defined in terms of angular separation are worth paying attention to.  When two pairs of planets are separated by an equal number of degrees, their energies are more likely to resonate, for good or ill.  So if Jupiter is one of the four planets, then there is a better chance for gains.  If Saturn is one of the four planets, then declines become more likely. 

One way to eyeball these planetary resonances is to focus first on slow-moving pairs involving distant planets. We can see that Jupiter and Chiron, a bullish planetary pair, are separated by about 12 degrees.  And we can see that Mercury and Venus were also separated by about 12 degrees in the first half the week.  Since both Mercury and Venus are considered benefic planets, there are arguably three bullish planets involved in this alignment and Chiron is also usually bullish unless it is aligned with Saturn.  In terms of midpoints, we can say that the midpoint of Mercury and Chiron (10 Gemini) equals or resonates with the midpoint of Venus and Jupiter (10 Sagittarius).

But since Mercury has a very slow velocity in the aftermath of its direct station on Sunday, this 12-degree separation was quite short-lived. By today's session, it had widened to 13 degrees while the slow-moving Jupiter-Chiron pairing was still near 12 degrees.  That was one reason why we may have seen a modest decline on Wednesday. 

While these four-planet angular separations do not override other, more direct aspects, they should be integrated into a broader analysis of market influences. In fact, we can see another four-planet alignment could negatively shape sentiment in the coming days.  The slow-moving bearish Saturn-Neptune pairing is separated by 34-35 degrees.  On Friday, Mars and Uranus will also be separated by 34 degrees.  Since both Saturn and Mars are malefic planets, this four-planet resonant alignment increases the odds of declines later this week.  Although the angular separation of Mars and Uranus widens to 35 degrees next Monday, this could still be within range of the ongoing Saturn-Neptune pairing.  While there are no hard and fast rules about the effective range of these resonate pairings, I would think anything within one degree or less is potentially significant. 

Of course, the approaching Mars-Neptune square (exact late on Tuesday), is bearish in its own right and significantly boosts downside risk next week.  While this is not a full-strength forward square Mars aspect, it is nonetheless worthy of consideration due to its exactitude.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Photo Credit: Scott Beale