Stocks plunge as Fed turns hawkish

 (24 April 2022) We're not in Kansas anymore.  Stocks plunged last week after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a 50 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on May 4.  While the Fed had previously been preparing markets for a much tighter monetary stance to fight inflation, investors seem to have finally got the message after a hawkish Powell promised several hikes through 2022. The prospect of significantly higher borrowing costs is anathema to markets which have become dangerously dependent upon cheap money from the Fed's zero interest rate policy.

The decline was not unexpected given the prevailing Saturn influence. The month of April has been generally bearish due to the relative strength of Saturn.  As noted last week, the near-exact Saturn-Ketu square aspect was primed to release of its negative energy and all it needed was a trigger.  The late week alignment with fast-moving Mercury proved to be that trigger as Mercury conjoined Rahu (and thereby opposed Ketu) and squared up with Saturn.  It was classic case of an alignment of slow-moving bearish planets (Saturn and Ketu) required a triggering planet for the negative potential to fully manifest. 

Moreover, we can see that on Friday, April 22 the Mercury-Saturn-Rahu/Ketu alignment set up almost exactly on the natal Mars-Ketu conjunction in the S&P 500 horoscope.  Since Mars and Ketu are both malefics, the incoming Mercury-Saturn-Ketu alignment piled on the negative energy even more to create a very potent pattern.

This week may also have some continuing volatility although the picture looks more complex.  With Mercury quickly moving away from its conjunction with Rahu and the natal Mars-Ketu, there will likely be less bearish energy available.  Of course, Saturn and Ketu will still be in very close alignment to the Mars-Ketu in the S&P 500 chart but it looks less damaging this week without an obvious triggering planet. 

Bears may still have some hopes though as Saturn is due to change sidereal signs on Wednesday (or Friday if following Lahiri) as it enters Aquarius. Saturn sign changes occur every 2.5 years and can be bearish although they typically need other factors to confirm.   Even if Saturn is now separating from its square with Ketu, it is, however, moving into a 30-degree alignment with Neptune.  This will be an extended alignment, however, as Saturn will be aligned with Neptune for the next four weeks.  While it looks like a bearish influence, this extended alignment means it is more difficult to pinpoint specific days of market declines.

We should note that there is a real chance for some upside this week as Venus conjoins Neptune on Wednesday and enters Pisces, its sign of exaltation.  In the late week, Venus will align with bullish Jupiter.  Wednesday could therefore be an important day since Saturn enters Aquarius just as Venus enters Pisces and both align with Neptune.  While a bounce seems likely at some point this week, Wednesday's outcome is a tough call, although the Moon's transit of Pisces that day would suggest that the strength of the other bullish planets in Pisces (Jupiter, Venus, Neptune) could get a boost.  Let's see. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Oil price fueling inflation spiral

(17 April 2022) As we all know, inflation is high and shows no sign of coming down.  Last week's US inflation report showed consumer prices rose 8.5% in March, which was an increase over February and indeed every month since April 2021.  There are numerous culprits in the inflation story including excessive Fed stimulus, excessive government stimulus, the end of Covid lockdowns and now most recently, Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

Perhaps the single-most important determinant of inflation is the price of crude oil.  Not only is oil the world's main source of energy, it is a significant component in the final price of everything we buy.  If the price of oil rises, then there is a good chance that the price of everything else will rise too. 

Oil prices had been on a steady rise throughout 2021 as lockdowns eased and life was gradually returning to normal.  The war in Ukraine accelerated the increase, however, as prices shot up to $130 a barrel in early March.  While the initial geopolitical shock has passed, oil is still trading well above $100 a barrel and above its pre-invasion levels of $90.  The longer oil remains above $100, the more difficult it will be for inflation to return to its previous target range of 2%. 

In traditional astrological terms, the price of oil is said to be related to the condition of Saturn, which rules things found underground.  Saturn's transit of sidereal Capricorn broadly fits this thesis since Saturn does well in Capricorn, a sign that it rules.  But since Saturn has been transiting Capricorn for over two years, we need to look elsewhere.

Western astrology has often linked oil to the condition of Neptune, since it rules liquids.  Neptune is a more intriguing explanation since Neptune has been conjunct Jupiter for the past several months.  As a bullish planet that is associated with growth, Jupiter's conjunction with Neptune is a more appropriate picture for rising oil prices.  Jupiter exactly conjoined Neptune on April 12.  Moreover, Jupiter and Neptune just entered the sign of sidereal Pisces last week.  Like Neptune, Pisces rules liquids so it is perhaps not surprising that oil prices should be elevated with the ingress of Neptune and Jupiter to this sign.

But we can get another perspective on the question by examining the horoscope of oil futures (March 30, 1983).  We can see the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction in a commanding position at the very top of the chart in the 10th house.  This placement suggests the bullish attributes of the Jupiter-Neptune conjunction are more likely to manifest fully in the crude oil chart.  The bullish influence of this conjunction is further magnified since it is very close to the degree of the 10th house cusp (29 Aquarius) as it forms a 90-degree alignment with the Ascendant (29 Taurus). 

Saturn is also in the mix here since it is currently placed at 29 degrees of Capricorn.  While Saturn is usually a bearish influence, its effect here may be seen in a more positive light since it placed on the more favourable 9th house cusp and aligns with the Ascendant exactly.  Also, much of the potentially negative Saturn influence may be neutralized by the simultaneous placement of Jupiter and Neptune near the same degrees of their signs.  If Saturn was there at 29 degrees of Capricorn without Jupiter or Neptune, it may have been a very different outcome. 

Another key factor in the current bull market in oil could be the ongoing conjunction of Uranus (19 Aries) to Venus (19 Aries).  Uranus-Venus aspects tend to be bullish in financial astrology and often correspond with especially sudden moves.  Further positive reinforcement is seen through the 30-degree alignment of Chiron (19 Pisces) with Venus and its own conjunction with natal Mercury.  Overall, it's a certainly very bullish chart.

So what happens next to oil prices?   It's a complex picture that has to account for the influences of a number of factors.  The gradual separation of Jupiter from Neptune in the coming weeks suggests moderation of the recent bullish price impulse.  Another potentially negative influence is that Uranus will start to separate from its conjunction with natal Venus in the coming days.  While this may not have an immediate impact, it will be one less positive factor in the mix. 

On the other hand, Neptune will remain very close to the first degree of Pisces throughout the summer.  Saturn will also station at 1 Aquarius and thus will maintain its close alignment to the Ascendant (29 Taurus).  These two placements could therefore provide a floor under price for several months yet.  However, prices may become weaker as Saturn moves out of alignment with the Ascendant.  This will occur slowly during its retrograde cycle (June-October) but looks more likely to manifest towards the end of summer.  With oil prices likely to stay high, inflation could remain a major concern for some time to come. 

Weekly Market Forecast

Following last week's decline, financial markets could remain on the defensive this week.  Saturn will be in a close square aspect with Ketu (South Lunar Node) throughout the week.  And Friday's Mercury-Rahu conjunction is likely to activate that bearish Saturn energy once again.  It's worth mentioning that heliocentric Mars conjoins Pluto on Tuesday.  Since both of those planets tend to be bearish, the combination suggests a possible focus of negative energy early in the week. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.


Photo Credit: Brent Moore

Stocks weaken as war in Ukraine drags on

(11 April 2022) Despite ongoing peace negotiations, the war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending anytime soon.  Russia has pulled back its forces from the Kyiv area, but it is now concentrating them in the Eastern part of the country.  A quick victory by Putin's army appears to have been thwarted as Ukraine has received billions in weapons and aid from the West.  The NATO allies remain strongly supportive of the defense of Ukraine, as evidenced by the surprise weekend visit to Kyiv by UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

As I noted back in early March, the war is unlikely to go well for Ukraine.  In late March and here in early April, transiting Saturn has been conjunct its Moon at 28 Capricorn.  This reflects the generally dire military and humanitarian situation in the country as the war has created millions of refugees.  The Moon symbolizes the people as a whole, so the conjunction with Saturn, the planet of loss and suffering, is an unfortunately appropriate measurement of the tragic situation there. 

The problem for Ukraine is that while Saturn will move past its conjunction with the Moon, it will approach another difficult exact alignment with Mars in early June.  Saturn is due to station retrograde at 1 Aquarius on June 4.  At that time, it will form a near-exact quincunx aspect with Mars at 1 Virgo.  While the 210-degree quincunx aspect is not a full-strength aspect by Vedic principles, it is nonetheless exact and therefore merits our attention.  

The affliction of Mars by Saturn suggests conflict and military encounters will go poorly for Ukraine.  We can also see that Neptune (1 Pisces) will oppose Mars at this time.  This is also unhelpful as Neptune-Mars aspects typically correspond to a weakening of vitality and fighting ability, either through loss of will or by deception or malfeasance by the enemy.  Chemical weapons are also more likely to be used given this Neptune influence.   In addition, Saturn will closely oppose the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction (2 Leo) during late May and early June.  Since Mercury and Jupiter represent the economy and wealth of the nation, this extended Saturn affliction could translate into a devastating period of economic disruption. 

As the war drags on, sanctions are having a major impact both in Russia and the rest of the world.  With little chance for a ceasefire in the near term, it is possible that Europe could finally agree to cut off all Russia energy imports. The prospect of even more damaging sanctions is undermining sentiment in financial markets this week as stocks sold off sharply Monday.  The decline coincided with Saturn's full-strength, 60-degree aspect to the Sun.  Mars was also in an exact 30-degree alignment with Pluto. 

While these malefic influences could impact stocks a bit more this week, bulls should enjoy some upside as well as Jupiter conjoins Neptune and then enters Pisces.  The Jupiter-Neptune conjunction is exact tomorrow (Tuesday) and hints at a possible reversal higher.  Jupiter's entry into Pisces on Wednesday looks more bullish, as does the alignment with the Sun on Wednesday and Thursday.   That said, the Saturn-Ketu square is ongoing and will likely mitigate any upside.  Mercury is also due to form a bearish contraparallel with Saturn on Thursday, although I would not expect this to be decisive.  It is nonetheless part of the overall mosaic of influences this week. 


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Stocks fall on hawkish Brainard comments

 (5 April 2022) US stocks fell today after the normally dovish Fed Governor Lael Brainard sounded a lot more hawkish by committing to a rapid selling of QE assets from its balance sheet in order to tackle inflation.   No matter how much the Fed may want to keep the stock market bubble going, it seems it can no longer ignore its mandate of price stability during this midterm election year.  The cycle of monetary tightening which began at the last FOMC meeting on March 16 will only accelerate now as markets are anticipating 50 point hikes at the next two Fed meetings in May and June.

While stocks rallied strongly in the second half of March, it could be a different story as we start the month of April.  This week features a rare six-planet alignment that significantly elevates downside risk.  The Mars-Saturn conjunction was exact in longitude on Monday when stocks surprisingly finished higher.  However, some additional fallout is possible since they will be in exact declination on Wednesday.  These are both malefic planets which do have a bearish bias in conjunction although we should note that they do not always coincide with selling.  Whether sentiment will get bearish often depends on their situation relative to other planets. 

Their more negative sides are more likely to manifest this week since they are aligned with the Lunar Nodes, Rahu and Ketu.  Mars casts its forward square aspect to Rahu while Saturn casts its backward square aspect to Ketu.  While this alignment is exact early this week if we use the True Node measurement, the Mean Node is more than a degree difference and postpones the Mars-Rahu square until Thursday, while the Saturn-Ketu square isn't exact until April 19. 

What is particularly unusual about this alignment is that is closely coincides with another conjunction, that of Jupiter and Neptune. Jupiter is a bullish planet and its conjunction with Neptune (exact on April 12) is normally a positive influence on sentiment.  Since these two conjunctions are almost simultaneous, it is tempting to think they may at least partially cancel each other out. 

That may well be the case and yet we have to recognize that even the bullish potential of Jupiter-Neptune could be disrupted or subverted in some way by the 120-degree/5th house aspect from Ketu, the South Lunar Node.  Ketu is considered a spiritual, anti-materialist planet so that it cannot be considered a neutral influence.  Therefore, the Ketu influence on Jupiter-Neptune slightly increases the probability of a negative market outcome in early April. 

Overall, there is definitely some downside risk this week, even if it the outcome is less predictable than we would like.  We can also see that Saturn will cast its full-strength 3rd house aspect (=60 degrees) on Mercury later in the week.  This is also seen in the semi-parallel aspect in the latitudes (i.e. Mercury (0 27) is about halfway between the latitude of the Sun(0) and Saturn (0 57).  This is usually bearish and perhaps more so since Mercury will be in Pisces, its sign of debilitation. So even if a major decline is averted, there is a decent chance for some selling on this Mercury-Saturn aspect on Thursday.  Given all these aspects involving malefic planets, the month of April looks unlikely to be smooth sailing for financial markets.


For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.


Photo Credit: Stuart Isett