(11 April 2022)
Despite ongoing peace negotiations, the war in Ukraine shows no signs
of ending anytime soon. Russia has pulled back its forces from the
Kyiv area, but it is now concentrating them in the Eastern part of the
country. A quick victory by Putin's army appears to have been thwarted
as Ukraine has received billions in weapons and aid from the West.
The NATO allies remain strongly supportive of the defense of Ukraine,
as evidenced by the surprise weekend visit to Kyiv by UK Prime Minister
Boris Johnson.
As I noted back in early March, the war is unlikely to go well for
Ukraine. In late March and here in early April, transiting Saturn has
been conjunct its Moon at 28 Capricorn. This reflects the generally
dire military and humanitarian situation in the country as the war has
created millions of refugees. The Moon symbolizes the people as a
whole, so the conjunction with Saturn, the planet of loss and suffering,
is an unfortunately appropriate measurement of the tragic situation
there.
The problem for Ukraine is that while Saturn will move past its
conjunction with the Moon, it will approach another difficult exact
alignment with Mars in early June. Saturn is due to station retrograde
at 1 Aquarius on June 4. At that time, it will form a near-exact
quincunx aspect with Mars at 1 Virgo. While the 210-degree quincunx
aspect is not a full-strength aspect by Vedic principles, it is
nonetheless exact and therefore merits our attention.
The affliction of Mars by Saturn suggests conflict and military encounters will go poorly for Ukraine. We can also see that Neptune (1 Pisces) will oppose Mars at this time. This is also unhelpful as Neptune-Mars aspects typically correspond to a weakening of vitality and fighting ability, either through loss of will or by deception or malfeasance by the enemy. Chemical weapons are also more likely to be used given this Neptune influence. In addition, Saturn will closely oppose the Mercury-Jupiter conjunction (2 Leo) during late May and early June. Since Mercury and Jupiter represent the economy and wealth of the nation, this extended Saturn affliction could translate into a devastating period of economic disruption.
As the war drags on, sanctions are having a major impact both in Russia and the rest of the world. With little chance for a ceasefire in the near term, it is possible that Europe could finally agree to cut off all Russia energy imports. The prospect of even more damaging sanctions is undermining sentiment in financial markets this week as stocks sold off sharply Monday. The decline coincided with Saturn's full-strength, 60-degree aspect to the Sun. Mars was also in an exact 30-degree alignment with Pluto.
While these malefic influences could impact stocks a bit more this week, bulls should enjoy some upside as well as Jupiter conjoins Neptune and then enters Pisces. The Jupiter-Neptune conjunction is exact tomorrow (Tuesday) and hints at a possible reversal higher. Jupiter's entry into Pisces on Wednesday looks more bullish, as does the alignment with the Sun on Wednesday and Thursday. That said, the Saturn-Ketu square is ongoing and will likely mitigate any upside. Mercury is also due to form a bearish contraparallel with Saturn on Thursday, although I would not expect this to be decisive. It is nonetheless part of the overall mosaic of influences this week.
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