New York is coming off a moderately negative week and opens at 12,745/1388. While I had thought the market would finish somewhat higher by Friday, these levels are in line with my worse-case intraday expectation of 1390 on the SPX. With Jupiter now retrograde, I think we are going to see some fundamental shifts in sentiment in the coming weeks as the glass will begin to appear half-empty to more market players. I don't think the market will go straight down from here though, since a rally of some size is likely heading into mid-June.
Last week, I predicted that Monday the 12th may see a substantial decline. I still think there is a big downside risk early this week owing to the simultaneous aspecting of transiting Mars and Saturn to the SPX natal Mercury. Also tr Mercury opposes the natal SPX Saturn as well, making the density of these contacts very high, and largely negative. Discerning outcomes is made more complicated since tr Jupiter trines tr Sun (a bullish influence) and these planets are exactly aligned with the Mars-Ketu conjunction in the SPX chart. While I think this natal contact essentially neutralizes the favourable influence of the trine, I acknowledge there is a slight possibility that the market could go the other way and rally. Regardless, I think Monday-Tuesday will see large price swings, most probably to the downside. The latter part of the week starting on Wednesday looks like a nice rally as a grand trine forms between tr Jupiter, Moon, and Sun. Overall, I think the market will finish the week lower with possible intraday lows of 12,500/1350.
Although I was steadfast in my belief that the recent run-up on Indian markets is nothing but a bear market rally, I thought the rise would last through last week. It didn't, and the BSE finished lower and opens at 16,737. In retrospect, I underestimated the negative impact of the late week tr Mars aspect to the natal Moon in the Nifty Futures chart. The Sun-nodal t-square perfects this week just as the tr Sun passes over the natal Saturn in the Nifty chart creating a situation of extreme uncertainty and confusion leading to fear. This aspect makes its closest pass on Tuesday and Wednesday, on the heels of the likely Monday sell off in NY. A close under 16k is possible here and negative week seems the most likely outcome although with a decent snapback rally late in the week, the Sensex may not be down by that much. My sense is that this isn't the end of the bear market rally and we may see more sizable rallies up until about June 10.
I was similarly sanguine about the TSE last week which finished lower at 13,655, although I was correct in predicting the end of the week weakness. This global bearish pattern for the week is also seen in the Tokyo chart. Tr Mars opposes natal Jupiter, although interestingly it doesn't perfect until later in the week. The Sun-nodal t-square also affects this chart, as the Sun is just four degrees from its natal position on Monday. Note also that the transiting Moon joins Ketu on Monday for added punch. This chart looks less afflicted than either NY or Mumbai, so it's possible the decline may be less here.
The Euro closed fractionally higher last week and opens at 1.5492. While I had forecast a down week, my projection for intraday lows of 1.53 was spot on as the Euro hit that level twice on Wednesday and Thursday. However, it bounced back sharply both times and even managed a decent gain on Friday. The Sun-nodal t-square will hit the Euro head-on as the nodes sit in inverse conjunction to their natal position -- tr Rahu conjunct natal Ketu. I think the Euro will revisit 1.53 again this week and will probably go below it. With Jupiter no long applying to the natal Venus, I think the Euro is headed down over the next few weeks. We should be well under 1.50 by June.
Last week's bearish forecast missed the mark as Oil is coming off another record-setting week with an apparent speculative blow off top and closed Friday above $125. Well, the party may well be over -- at least for this week. Tr Mars squares the Moon-Saturn in the futures chart this week with the perfection of the aspect due mid-week. With tr Saturn also aspecting that natal conjunction, there is a real risk for a large drop, perhaps back under $115. At this point, I am interpreting tr Mercury coming to the ascendant of the futures chart as a sign of increased trading, rather than a bullish price indicator.
I was similarly overly negative on Gold last week as it closed at $885, up $30. While I had thought some good rallies were possible, I didn't think they would hold as much as they did. I'm generally bearish short term, as I think Gold is in the process of forming a bottom here so I am expecting more testing of $850 and below in the coming weeks. This week Gold seems poised to decline as tr Mercury opposes the natal futures Mars, while tr Mars squares the natal Uranus. This apparently bearish pattern is reinforced by some hard aspects in the GLD ETF chart. It won't be all downhill from here, although I think the bearishness is likely strongest on Monday and Tuesday. I would not be surprised to see $850 at some point this week, although I'm not wholly committed to the gloom for this week. The drift should be down, but prices could be choppy here.
