Sunday, March 8, 2009

Investors give up on stocks as Dow falls to 6500

Stocks kept falling last week over continuing questions surrounding the viability of the financial sector. The Dow broke through 7000 and closed Friday at 6626 while the S&P ended at 683. In Mumbai, the Nifty retested its October lows and ended down 5% to close at 2620 while the Sensex stood at 8325. This results are largely in keeping with expectations with the likely fallout from the approaching Venus retrograde station in tense aspect with Saturn. Wednesday's gains in New York deserve special mention here for bucking the down trend. Certainly, the close harmonic aspect between Sun and Venus had the potential for boosting sentiment, although it was something of an open question whether it might manifest Tuesday when Jupiter was also in the mix. Interestingly, the Moon was in Mars-ruled Mrigashira on Wednesday, while Mars was transiting its own nakshatra of Dhanista. This is a favourable combination that may have been a factor in the rise. By Thursday, the Moon had moved into Rahu-ruled Ardra and the selling resumed. For its part, Rahu was in Moon-ruled Shravana, and while the exchange of lords
is often seen as fortuitous, in this case we may speculate whether such an exchange could still generate optimism given the difficult condition of Rahu in Capricorn.

With the Venus station now behind us, there is a good prima facie case for some kind of rebound here. The Sun-Uranus conjunction comes exact on Thursday and this should provide a lot of new, restless energy that could increase volumes. Since the conjunction is occurring in Uranian-ruled Aquarius, that is a possible positive indicator to this contact that could translate into higher prices. Another potentially favourable influence on the markets is the 3rd house aspect (sextile) between Venus and Jupiter on Wednesday. The Moon moves into harmonic alignment with this aspect on Thursday (EDT) so it's possible that the bulk of the bullish trend may be confined towards the end of the week. Nonetheless, Wednesday's Moon looks favourable by another metric since will be in Sun-ruled Uttara Phalguni while the Sun is moving away from Saturn towards Uranus in Jupiter-ruled Purva Bhadra. Before then, the market may be more tentative. On Monday, the Moon is in Magha while Ketu is in Pushyami. Whatever other influences that may be effective at that time, that particular situation is not very supportive of prices.

With Mercury and Mars still remaining to oppose Saturn, one can't be overly confident that the market is prepared to rally substantially from here. Even if this week is positive, the market will be prone to more sideways movement and pullbacks over the next few weeks.