Tuesday, March 25, 2008

New York treads water

North American markets stayed flat today amidst negative news of falling consumer sentiment. Given recent nervousness, that might be interpreted as a bullish signal. Two weeks ago, that kind of news would have sparked a sell off. So while I thought we'd be up today, after two days, we are about where I thought we'd be, although I'm not claiming any prescience.

This week's planetary motion will be a good test of the popular 7.52 am chart of the New York Stock Exchange which has 23 Gemini rising (Lahiri). Both Mercury and Venus are transiting on the equal 9th house cusp in Aquarius which ought to spark a gain overall on the week. So far we are up over 1% but if this chart is correct, one would expect at least another 1% before the planets move off.

Bombay roared back to life by climbing above 16k in an impressive 6% rally. I'm less keen on the next couple of days however, as Moon will square the Saturn-Ketu conjunction tomorrow and Moon's ingress into Anuradha in the afternoon suggests it may be hard for the market to finish in the plus column on Thursday. Friday looks good though. Tokyo added 2% as well to get back to 12,700. There is some chance for modest intraday gains Wednesday, but they may not hold by the close. Thursday looks more negative, but Friday should be a high point. But even there, we may well ask if the applying Sun-Mars square will take hold and force investors to the exits. Right now, I don't think so. Next Monday looks more like a day of reckoning, however.

Our Euro forecast is more on track, as it rose two cents today to 1.565. This is looking more like it may hit 1.60 very soon.

Oil rose by just $0.50 while Gold had a strong day adding $16 to close at $930. I had thought that Tuesday would be good for gold and that came to pass. As I suggested early last week before the post-Fed cut gold collapse there appears to be a divergence forming as the Euro and Gold are still valid dollar plays versus Oil, which recession fears have finally undercut its appeal as an inflation hedge. Still, in keeping with my original forecast, I don't expect to see gold duplicating the extent of today's rally, although it may not finish the week as weakly as forecast.