Equity markets are probably headed lower this week. The question is: will they break through support levels? My initial reading of the charts says yes, although things will be clearer by midweek. The end of the week looks most negative, so if we can get some up days in the early part of the week, then the indexes may not break decisively through. In NY, I do think we'll end up lower than where we start (12,266 on the Dow and 1330 on the S&P), but possibly not by much. Right now, I'd say we have a greater than 50% chance of breaking down below 12,000/1320 at least on an intraday basis. Nonetheless, any rallies to 12,500/1360 that may occur early on should be seen as exit points from the market. Venus and Mercury will oppose the natal Uranus in the NYSE chart through much of the week, so expect a lot of volatility.
Tokyo and Bombay's BSE are also headed lower from their present levels. The Nikkei may fare better of the two, although it will seriously retest its January low of 12,572. The Sensex will probably drop below its previous February low of 16,600, especially by Thursday as Mercury and Venus oppose the natal Mars in the BSE chart. It has the potential to be a fairly nasty time with daily declines on the order of 3-5%.
Gold, oil and the Euro will continue on their bullish trends although not as strongly or consistently as in the past couple weeks. The Euro will continue strong but later in the week beginning Wednesday there will be significant declines, perhaps back to 1.51 or lower. Monday and Tuesday will not see any major selloffs. As we said last week, gold is a good bet to move past $1000 this week. Oil is vulnerable to declines this week, so rallies beyond $102 will not likely not last. I think we'll see oil back under $100, at least intermittently through the week and by the close Friday.
I will post some more time-specific revised forecasts through the week.
