The week finished up as it started -- down. Markets were down about 2% as the Dow fell 194 points to 11,951 and the S&P dropped 27 to 1288. For the week, the Dow gained 58 points while the S&P lost 5. My weekly forecast had called for a modest decline so this mostly flat result was a little wide of the mark but still credible as the week did end bearishly. Our call that previous lows would be broken on an intraday basis was also overly bearish as the previous low on the S&P 1270 was tested on Monday (1272) but held firm the rest of the week, especially after Tuesday's spectacular run up. Monday holds the promise of a Mercury-Saturn opposition.
My bearish forecast better captured the action on the Tokyo and Bombay markets. Tokyo did finish down on the week as forecast to close at 12,241 (Monday open: 12,782) while the Sensex ended the week at 15,760, down modestly from Monday's open at 15,975. The Nikkei's intraday low of 12,167 wasn't far off our forecast for 12,000 and is its lowest level since 2005.
I continue to be correct on the direction of the Euro but still too conservative. I had thought we wouldn't go beyond $1.55 until next week but alas, we closed at $1.567 as the abandonment of the greenback continues in the face of inflationary bailouts by the Fed.
Oil rode the bull again this week as forecast, and my call for $110 was more or less correct. Oil finished at $110.21, after being as high as $112.
Gold finally reached $1000 on Friday touching as high as $1009, although it closed just under at $999.50. I wasn't sure we could do it this week but I did think that if we did, it would be on Friday and it was. On the other hand, the lack of a close about $1000 may force us to take Monday more seriously as an historic day on that score.
