Markets came back strong after the Fed rate cut as the Dow closed up 261 points to 12,361 while the SPX finished up 31 to close at 1329. I had thought we were due for a rally, but I reckoned it would be next week so my bearish forecast this week missed the mark. We're still in line with our medium term forecast of sideways movement between 1270 and 1380. Early April may see some rallies to the high side of that range, but the end of the month looks bearish as Rahu will tightly conjoin Neptune as Neptune prepares to enter Aquarius.
Tokyo closed up for the week at 12,482, again upstaging my gloomy forecast. I think Tokyo is likely to start a significant rally in April that extends into May. This may take the Nikkei up to recent resistance levels to14,000. Maybe they'll finally get around to appointing someone to head the BOJ. Bombay did follow the script I had prepared and closed below 15,000 as forecast. While we might see some gains in the weeks ahead, I don't think there is much upside to the Sensex in the coming months while the downside risk is hard to ignore. There is solid support at 14,000 that will be severely tested in the coming months. I don't think it's going to hold.
The Euro finally succumbed to some greenback optimism and broke it's winning streak closing at $1.543. Our medium term forecast for a much higher Euro above 1.60 is still in place but we'll have to wait a while longer.
I correctly called the oil pullback this week as it closed at 101.84. I think it's likely to drift down further to the $90 to $100 range over the next two months as fears of a slowdown take root. Prices should rebound after Jupiter turns retrograde in early May. The late summer should see prices making new all-time highs.
Gold's fall from stratospheric grace was perhaps the biggest story this week. It was one I missed unfortunately. I knew that there was a no-man's land in between Mercury and Venus in the gold futures chart that transiting Jupiter could not hope to straddle indefinitely. It seems to have lost its boosting power in the middle, just as transiting Mars was moving into position in the 6th house. There may be a pullback under $900 in the coming weeks as the price consolidates with profit taking. We may still see rallies towards $1000 in April but I'm not sure they will succeed. The medium term prospects for gold are still very bullish by my reckoning as Jupiter's retrograde motion in May will likely help support prices. A monster rally will ensue in August and September where gold will likely move past $1100 and well beyond.
