Sunday, March 23, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of March 24-28

The NYSE is coming off a life-saving rally last week. This week will be a crucial opportunity for a respite with recent nervousness. Certainly, there are some nice planetary configurations to factor in, particularly the equal degree alignment between Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, and Uranus. While this is a fairly rare occurrence, I don't think it will result in a big gain. That's partially due to a fairly bearish-looking March 21 Full Moon that featured an ascendant hemmed in between Mars and Saturn/Ketu. We will have days with large rises, probably on Tuesday and to a lesser extent on Thursday. But the overall market will remain mixed and I believe we will close Friday within 1% of our present levels, probably on the downside. I will make some revised daily forecasts through the week.

Monday looks modestly negative (<1%) as the Moon is in Rahu/Saturn at the open. If the market drops more than 1%, the week will be worse than I thought. Tuesday appears to be the best day (+2%) as the Moon is in Jupiter's nakshatra while completing that upbeat configuration of aforementioned planets. Look for the rally to fade in the afternoon after perfection of the lunar aspect. Wednesday looks like the worst day (-2%) as the Moon is in Saturn/Mercury and squares the Saturn-Nodes. Thursday's Moon is in Mercury's star while the planet of trading enjoys a strong placement. I'm expecting at least a rise of 1%. Friday looks modestly negative as the Moon transits Mercury-Saturn. There is a chance for a larger loss here of perhaps 2% but more likely it will be held to 1% on late buying.

Tokyo will likely track higher this week as the Full Moon showed a clustering of benefics around the ascendant. The Nikkei starts the week at 12,482 and we may see 13k at some point. Monday looks good. Wednesday appears to be the best day, with gains over 2% possible. Friday may be negative as the Moon enters the 6th house of the TSE chart.

Bombay starts the week at 14,994 and will likely end the week in negative territory reinforcing the bearishness. The Full Moon occurred opposite the natal Saturn in the BSE chart and the transiting Sun is between the natal Saturn-Ketu conjunction. Things may get grim here, and we may go below 14,000k at some point. Thursday looks worst.

After the more modest rate cut and revival of confidence in the US dollar, a lot of investors cut their inflation hedge instruments and got out of gold, oil and the Euro. As a result, the Euro fell back under $1.55. I think it's due to rise again this week back near its recent highs, perhaps to $1.57 or $1.58. We are likely looking at an up week here, with real strength towards the end of the week. $1.60 is very possible. The following week also looks bullish for the Euro, even if other commodities continue to weaken.

Opening the week at $101, Oil looks like it will continue to weaken this week. We may go lower than $98. Thursday looks like a gain as the Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. Friday looks bearish.

Gold looks like it may be in better shape this week to rise above its $920 open, although it's not likely to resume its frenetic bull run for a little while, perhaps in May or June. Monday looks like a gain, especially in the afternoon. Tuesday also has the potential to move up, although things may get shaky after that. Overall, I think we'll end the week lower, but the declines will be more orderly suggesting a consolidation near $850-900 may be taking place. We may test below $900 at some point.