Thursday, April 24, 2008

US dollar rebounds

Some good news on durable goods caused the US dollar to rebound on expectations that the Fed was near the end of its easing phase. This put a dent in the speculation that has been fueling the recent rise in the Euro and crude oil. The Euro closed down two full cents to under $1.57. While I had expected a sharp pullback, I thought the decline would not get started until next week. This is useful lesson on the unreliability of exact transit points as tr Venus had yet to conjoin the natal Saturn. I think we will likely see the retracement continue for the next week as tr Mars will aspect the natal Venus. I think there will be rallies in the weeks ahead, but the short term future looks quite bearish. We could be under 1.50 very quickly. I take some solace in the fact the 1.60 forecast was achieved, if only briefly.

Oil sold off as well closing near $116. This decline was also a little premature as Venus still hasn't quite left Pisces yet. Perhaps the skies are not as neatly divided as one would like. The Sun-Saturn sell off I had forecast came a day later than expected. I don't see us selling off hugely Friday but a down day is likely. Next week does look more bearish, so we may fall back below $110.

Gold fell back sharply to $890 today mostly on the renewed interest in the US dollar. I had wondered about the possible negative effects of the Mars opposition to Venus at the end of the week. That bearish manifested a day earlier than forecast, however, and may well extend the weakness into tomorrow. I don't think we're headed straight down here, but the trend will be mostly negative over the next couple weeks.

US stocks ended up modestly to return to where they started the week. Microsoft's earnings outlook has sparked some after-hours selling, so we'll see how negative the market will be Friday.

The Sensex has held on to early gains this week but has been unable to build upon them. I think it will fall back near Monday's levels.