Sunday, April 13, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of Apr 14 -18

As predicted, the NYSE finished down last week amid new fears that corporate earnings may be vulnerable to fallout from the sub-prime crisis. The Dow opens at 12,325 and the S&P at 1332. I think we will see the markets move lower again this week, with Monday and Tuesday looking the most bearish. Transiting Sun and Mercury will move into Aries early in the week and will fall under the aspect of unpredictable Ketu. I consider this a negative influence owing to Ketu's conjunction with Saturn. The transiting Moon will come to the Saturn-Ketu conjunction Tuesday, so that might be the more negative day. As an additional burden, by their ingress into Aries, Sun and Mercury are moving into the 12th house of the the S&P chart. At this point, Friday appears to be the best day, as tr. Venus applies to the natal S&P Moon, although it will still be a couple degrees short. If Monday does in fact produce a lower close, then we could be looking at a significant decline for Tuesday, on the order of 2% or more. I think we will see 1300/12,000 at some point this week, with a slight possibility of.intraday re-testing of the 11,700/1270 support levels. On balance, I think that next week would be a better candidate for the re-testing of those support levels, however.

Bombay is closed Monday, but trading on Tuesday should be mostly negative. I had thought the decline would being late last week as the transiting Mars came to the natal 1875 Mercury, but traders had other ideas as the Sensex closed at 15,807. Tr. Mars now applies to the natal Sun so the negative energy is now, if anything, more concentrated. Some relief rally is possible for Thursday, however, as optimism, no matter how baseless, may return with the approach of transiting Venus to the natal 1875 Rahu. With the shortened three-day trading week, I think we will finish lower, perhaps moving below 15,000 at least for one day's close.

Tokyo is coming off a decent week and will open at 13,323. Transiting Sun and Mercury will conjoin the natal Rahu in the TSE chart, making for a lot of volatility. We can expect a down day Monday following on the the heels of US markets. Transiting Moon will come under negative pressure from the aspect of the natal TSE Mars. However, transiting Venus will move toward the TSE unequal 10th house cusp (MC) later in the week. This is one reason why I can see the Nikkei closing over 13k for the week and indeed moving higher from current levels.

I was overly bearish on the Euro last week, but I'm fairly certain it will sell off this week as tr. Sun and Mercury conjoin the natal Saturn. I see that it has sold off almost a cent already in early trading so that forecast is bearing fruit. We may see $1.55 or lower in the early part of the week, but look for some recovery by Friday, perhaps back to $1.56 or 1.57. Overall, though we should be lower from its present level of $1.582.

Oil is similarly going to suffer a big pullback early on in the week as tr Sun and Mercury conjoin the natal Mars in the futures chart. Given its recent volatility, a big move of at least 5% to the downside is very likely over Monday and Tuesday. We may see the Oil price go below $105, perhaps decisively so. There will some rally later on, but I think we'll finish Friday below current levels of $110.

Gold will also fall this week as tr Mars conjoins the natal Saturn in the futures chart. $900 is very possible at some point this week and I think we'll close Friday lower than where we started.