Wednesday, April 16, 2008

Markets rise on earnings optimism

New York was up 2% today on the basis of good earnings from Intel, as some investors began to believe that the worst was over. While I called for a decline this week, I still think we can look for a significant decline over the next 4 or 5 trading days. My original downside target of 11,750/1270 probably won't be met here, but look for a 2% down day, most likely early next week.

Closing yesterday at 16,244, Bombay continues to be strong this week. Tr Venus conjoins natal 1875 Rahu tomorrow so that should account for the up day that is in store but beware of gains made with Rahu -- they often don't last. There are still some potentially negative influences such as the Mars conjoining the natal Sun but given the market behaviour so far, it may be that Mars rules good houses in the natal chart, i.e. its conjunction coincides with gains and not losses.

Tokyo is above 13,000 and will likely climb higher as forecast. Tr Venus is approaching the MC as Sun-Mercury activate the powerful 10th house Rahu in the natal chart.

The Euro is a record high of 1.595 today laying waste to my expectation for a pullback as Sun-Mercury conjoined the natal Saturn. Certainly, the Euro is due to continue rising over the next few weeks, but it is overdue for a brief correction here. The fact that tr Mars is squaring the natal Mars only reinforces my belief that it is headed sharply lower day (>1%) at some point this week.

While oil did retreat to $112 in morning trading, it rose past $114 in the afternoon. Our longer term forecast has it going higher over the next few weeks ($120 is likely), so it seems that short term negative transits are manifesting as very temporary pullbacks that do not last through to the close. A few dates to watch out for as possible tops then are: 1) Apr 25 when tr Venus enters Aries which is the 12th house in the Oil futures chart; 2) April 28th when tr Mars enters Cancer and thereby afflicts the Moon-Saturn conjunction in the futures chart; 3) May 4th when tr Rahu begins to separate from tr Neptune, which may have had a bullish influence on the price of crude and; 4) May 9th when Jupiter turns retrograde and begins to move away from the equal 8th house cusp in the futures chart. All these factors may each contribute to the easing of the price once we get into May.

Gold rose again today closing at $948. It is also on track with our medium term forecast to continue rising until the Jupiter station in May. The next chance for a price decline might be Friday, and then again early next week. A pressing question now might be whether or not gold can climb back over $1000 on this current Jupiter rally. Given its ability to shake off some apparently negative transits, I'd say it's very doable. It will have about two weeks to do it.