Saturday, April 19, 2008

Market Review -- week of Apr 14-18

On positive earnings news from Google, New York rallied strongly Friday to finish the week at 12,849 on the Dow and 1390 on the S&P. This left our bearish forecast in the dust. I missed the upward move by overestimating the negative influence of Ketu on the transiting Sun and Mercury. Stocks are near some key resistance levels here, so any more upside would be seen as a very bullish breakout move. I think it's possible we may see some up days here that put us over that 13,000/1400 threshold, but the downside risk is still greater so new gains will likely not hold. Next week features the apparently bearish Mars-Jupiter opposition coming exact so we will have to watch that carefully. A longer lasting rally is more likely to begin in May after the the Sun-Saturn square has occurred and run into early June.

Bombay had a bullish week closing at 16,481. Again, optimism returned despite our analysis to the contrary. One plausible explanation of the upward movement can be seen in the BSE Nifty Futures chart where tr. Venus conjoined the equal 9th house cusp while the natal lagnesh Moon was aspected by tr Sun and Mercury. Both of these are clearly bullish signals and suggests that this chart warrants further consideration as a useful proxy for the BSE.

Tokyo followed the upward trend this week and gained about 1% to close at 13,476. This confirmed our bullish forecast based on the TSE 1949 chart as tr Venus approached the unequal 10th house cusp.

Euro closed Friday at $1.581, down over a cent after touching $1.595 briefly midweek. This also confirmed our negative forecast for the week, although only barely. Our Thursday revised forecast was borne out by Friday's sell off as the transiting Sun finally combined with the natal 8th house Saturn, albeit a couple of degrees after the fact. There are still a preponderance of bullish factors at work in this chart that should tend to push it higher in the coming weeks, although after May 9th, that climb may be weakened, perhaps mortally.

Oil became a haven for speculators as it powered to new all-time highs, closing at $116.83 on Friday. Our bearish prediction was defied by the strength of transiting bhukti lord Venus exalted in Pisces and transiting the 11th house of gains in the futures chart. My expectation was that the influence of the tr Sun and Mercury over the natal 12th house Mars would take prices down. The fact that this Mars sits in the unequal 11th house suggests that whole sign house placements may demand alternative interpretations from time to time. While Venus' movement into Aries after the 25th may bring a slowing of recent gains, I think we'll have to wait for May and Mars' ingress into Cancer to bring prices down.

Gold closed down $27 to $915. After a surprisingly strong week, at least our revised Wednesday forecast indicated the possibility of a Friday decline with tr Venus coming within range of the aspect from natal Saturn in the futures chart. The medium term factors are still in place for a rally in the next couple of weeks, although I note that the Mars-Jupiter opposition next week will activate the natal Venus in the futures chart. This is likely bullish given Mars' rulership over the 11th house, but it is not certain.