Friday, April 4, 2008

Stocks finish flat / Market Review -- week of Mar 31 - Apr 4

Stocks in NY ended the day flat to close up for the week with the Dow at 12,606 and the S&P at 1370. While we thought the market might show more strength Friday, this was largely in keeping with our weekly forecast, although we closed a little higher than expected.

Tokyo closed down modestly on Friday. Our call to close higher than 13k on the Nikkei was correct as the index finished at 13,293. Bombay closed down Friday which went against expectation and closed at 15,343. I underestimated the bearish importance of the transit Sun conjunction with the natal Rahu in the BSE 1875 chart. The BSE did much poorer than expected this week and this bodes poorly for next week as well and beyond. There is some real downside potential here in the coming weeks.

The Euro finished strong as predicted as it closed at 1.573, up half a cent. Unfortunately, our forecast for a gain this week did not come to pass as we only managed to return to the Monday open. This reflects the growing strength of the US dollar generally. Next week may be the last chance to hit $1.60 for a while, and I'm thinking it may not happen, since the week after next looks very bearish.

We missed the our revised Friday forecast on Oil however, as it rose $2 to finish at $106. Our weekly forecast did have crude rising, so getting the direction right is some consolation. Next week will likely see Oil trend downwards.

Gold finished higher by $3 to end the day at $913. We missed the big sell off Monday so our weekly forecast was far too optimistic. I expect the weakness to continue next week, especially by Friday.