Sunday, November 16, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of Nov 17 - 21


Stocks slumped 5% worldwide last week on continuing fears that the recession may be deeper than first thought. Despite an impressive rally Thursday in New York following an apparent retest of Dow 8000, the market slipped back Friday as the Dow closed at 8497 and the SPX at 873. I had expected more of rally last week on the basis of the favourable Jupiter-Uranus aspect but it seems that the hangover effects of the preceding week's Saturn-Uranus opposition still carried the day.

I think markets are likely to be shaky in the early part of the week on the heels of Saturn's aspect to Mercury on Monday. I would not be surprised to see yet another retest of Dow 8000 then. Stocks are likely to improve significantly as the week progresses as Mercury joins the Sun and Mars in Scorpio. Venus' ingress into Purvashada will also be supportive of sentiment as Jupiter's aspect to Saturn perfects on Friday. Depending on how low we go early on, we could end the week at or above current levels.

In Mumbai, markets also succumbed to pessimism as the major indices failed to hold onto early gains that put them over key psychological levels of 10,000 on the Sensex and 3000 on the Nifty. The Sensex closed Friday at 9385 and the Nifty at 2810. Monday should be quite negative but look for a reversal Tuesday or Wednesday as transiting Mercury conjoins the natal Jupiter in the NSE chart. Friday looks quite favourable as the Moon transits Purva Phalguni while its lord Venus lords over Purvashada. Barring some catastrophic meltdown in the early part of the week, Indian markets should finish higher than current levels.

The Euro slipped back to 1.26 last week the bearishness in stocks pushed investors to once again seek safe haven in the US dollar. I think there could be more weakness at the start of the week, perhaps under 1.25, but look for the Euro to recover by week's end as Venus conjoins the natal Sun in the Euro chart. We should see a similar pattern in the Rupee which also lost ground last week and closed at 48.8. Early trading may push it above 50 but looks for strengthening by Friday at least back to current levels and then some.

Crude oil fell sharply last week and opens Monday at $57. With Sun and Mercury transiting the 6th house of the Futures chart, more declines are likely early in the week, and we will likely see $55 easily broken. Some bounce is likely by Friday so we return to current levels or slightly above. Crude prices will likely continue to weaken through December, however, as transiting Ketu aspects natal Jupiter

Gold made some modest gains to $742 last week, just as the Sun was leaving Libra, its sign of debilitation. I think gold is likely to move higher this week as the Sun is joined by Mercury in Scorpio after midweek.


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