Sunday, November 9, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of Nov 10 - 14

US stocks fell 4% last week on a post-election sell off as the Dow closed at 8943 and the SPX at 930. I had expected a negative week on the basis of the Saturn-Uranus opposition, but was somewhat disappointed that the decline wasn't bigger. In retrospect, the market saw gains when the Venus-Saturn-Uranus alignment was most exact, so that it another reminder that the exactitude of transit aspects should not be given greater importance over other factors. One could make a better case for the triggering effects of Mercury moving into Rahu-ruled Swati on Wednesday as the explanation for the decline.

This week will see Jupiter (expansion) move into closer harmonic alignment with both Saturn (restriction) and Uranus (sudden energy). While Jupiter with Uranus often connotes sharp rises, Saturn's role in this multi-planet alignment may dampen market enthusiasm. We may also see subtle sentiment shifts in some sectors as both Venus and Mars have just changed signs. Venus has moved into Sagittarius to join Jupiter and this may assist the consumer sector in a general way. Mars has now entered Scorpio, a sign it rules, and should therefore be regarded as a stronger planet. Of course, strength alone is neither positive or negative for the market, but can indicate that Mars has a greater say in market direction. By virtue of entering Scorpio, Mars has now moved into a tense alignment with Saturn and Uranus which now occupy signs 4 signs away. This aspect is still far from being exact so it would be mistaken to ascribe too much influence to it. As the aspect becomes more exact, we can expect the negative side of Mars to be expressed through declines. For the moment, though, it seems relatively unafflicted, so it is unlikely to push prices down. Another potentially significant aspect this week is the conjunction of Venus and Pluto that occurs on Wednesday. Venus can be seen to represent money in this case, while Pluto symbolizes power and control. On the face of it, this may be a bullish influence for the market. However, sudden falls following the conjunction are common, and indeed one cannot assume that they will correspond exactly to the moment of conjunction itself.

Against my expectations, Indian stocks rose last week as the Sensex closed at 9964 and the Nifty at 2973. While prices did fall towards the end of the week, I was surprised by the extent of early week rise. Market movements reflected the NSE horoscope quite well as markets fell Wednesday and Thursday as transiting Sun conjoined the natal Rahu. While I did not foresee Friday's rise, it was also plausibly indicated through transiting Venus conjoining the NSE ascendant. My error was in ascribing too much influence to the simultaneous transit of Mars to the 12th house cusp of this chart. With transiting Ketu moving away from the natal Mars, it is not unreasonable to believe that the worst losses of the market are now behind us in the short term. This aspect was exactly conjunct in October when the losses were at their steepest. Transiting Sun comes to the natal Jupiter this week so some gains seem likely, although perhaps they will be subject to rapid profit taking as Mercury will conjoin malefic Rahu late in the week.

Most global currencies rallied against the US dollar last week as the banking situation normalized and confidence returned. The Euro even traded above 1.30 earlier in the week and closed Friday's session at 1.27. This was much stronger than I had expected. It seems that the US dollar rally may be over for the short term. I think more gains are possible this week as the Venus-Pluto conjunction may provide a boost for an acquisitiveness thus boosting demand in local currencies. The Rupee is also likely to benefit from this improvement in sentiment.

Crude oil fell back to $61 last week as transiting Mars afflicted the ascendant in the Futures chart. As Mars moves away from this sensitive point, we can expect crude to rise, perhaps sharply. One possible unknown is that the Venus-Pluto conjunction will occur very close to the natal Ketu-Neptune in the Futures chart. It is possible that this will reflect a negative sentiment towards crude, but Ketu is a very changeable planet and it can be converted, as it were, from a malefic to a benefic if the benefic influences on it predominate.

Gold rose modestly last week as it closed at $738. Part of the explanation for the gain lay in the aspect between the transiting Sun and the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. While this only accounted for perhaps two days' influence, it may have been enough to temporarily offset the longer term background influence of transiting Ketu on the natal Moon. Although Ketu remains a negative influence on Gold now, it is possible we may again see a temporary rise this week as transiting Mercury now falls under the benefic influence of the natal Jupiter. Perhaps more than usual, gold prices will reflect a struggle between Ketu (bearish) and Mercury (bullish).

For a more detailed forecast, please consult the MVA Investor Newsletter, now available by subscription only.