Sunday, November 30, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of December 1 -5

Stocks in New York rallied over 10% last week amidst a growing sense that a solid bottom was reached the week previous at 7400. The Dow ended the holiday-shortened week at 8829 while the S&P closed at 896. The rally was largely expected although I had thought we might see more declines later in the week. As it happened, the potential negativity contained within the Moon's transit of Scorpio was offset by the approaching conjunction of benefics Venus and Jupiter.

Monday's triple conjunction of Moon-Venus-Jupiter may coincide with a big rise as the rally enters a more difficult phase. The Sun and Mars will conjoin at 20 degrees of Scorpio on Friday and this may also shift sentiment away from rehabilitated optimism to a more jittery and alarmist orientation. The coming Saturn-Neptune aspect will likely bring back a significant amount of fear and pessimism to the market. In addition, the New Moon of November 27 was quite afflicted and also suggests that December will not be kind to equities. Although the Venus-Jupiter conjunction is fairly close in that chart, Mercury is in a tighter conjunction with Mars and both are aspected by unstable Ketu. This suggests that prices will be volatile through December with sudden ups and downs. To make matters worse, the New Moon in New York features Neptune rising with Saturn in the 8th house of obstacles. This is additional evidence that the markets will see a significant move down this month, perhaps revisiting Dow 7400 or even going below it.

Indian markets made more modest gains last week as the terror attacks in Mumbai shut markets on Thursday. While I had expected higher prices in the early going, stocks ended the week fairly close to forecast levels. The Nifty ended Friday's session at 2755 while the Sensex closed at 9092. The rally will likely be extended this week as the Venus-Jupiter conjunction occurs almost exactly on the natal Uranus of the NSE chart in the 2nd house of wealth. A very rapid rise is possible so Nifty 3000 seems quite doable here. The rally is unlikely to last very long, however, Saturn is moving into a particularly dominant position in the NSE chart. As already noted, the New Moon of November 27 is not a good chart. Moreover, in Mumbai, the New Moon occurred with malefic and unpredictable Ketu rising. While Ketu can simply mean quick and sudden actions, it is also very much an anti-materialist energy that is often at odds with higher stock prices. With Mercury conjunct Mars in this chart, it presents a fairly bleak picture for stocks in December. The only question is how low will they go. I think a retest of Nifty 2525 is inevitable, and stocks will likely trade well below that level for a time.