Sunday, August 31, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of Sep 1 - 5



As predicted, New York stocks finished down last week, as the Dow closed at 11,543 and the S&P at 1282. The 1% drop was a more modest decline than forecast and reflected Thursday's unexpected gains in advance of the Venus-Pluto square. The persistence of bad economic news is making it hard for this market to rally, and the planets aren't helping either. This market is now residing in a fairly nondescript anteroom of a very frightening house of bear market horrors.

This week looks mixed, as stocks may start weaker Tuesday and Wednesday after the Monday holiday for Labor Day. Tuesday in particular may feature some anxious tendencies as the Moon is in aspect to Rahu in Hasta. There's a good chance prices will head higher towards the end of this week after the Sun has moved past its conjunction with Saturn. Thursday may have the most bullish configuration (at least on paper) as the Moon joins an assortment of planets around 18 degrees of their respective signs. If the early week losses stay above 11,300, then there's a good chance the market will finish higher overall. Nonetheless, I'm not at all confident that there will be many more gains here. The risk of significant losses will increase towards the end of next week and particularly with the Full Moon on Monday the 15th. There is a very real chance of of breaking below the July lows at that time.

Mumbai stocks eked out a slight gain last week as the Sensex stands at 14,564 and the Nifty at 4360. Early week trading should be mostly negative as the transiting Moon and Venus oppose Saturn in the Nifty chart. While prices may fall, they are unlikely to go below 14,000. Late week trading looks more positive as the Moon moves into the 5th house of Libra in the Nifty chart. Overall, the week may close fairly near current levels, with a minimal upside bias.

Tokyo rose about 3% last week and opens at 13,072. While I had hinted at the chance for gains last week, this move up was surprising. The tough sledding early in the week may prevent much more upside this week, although if Tuesday is positive with the Moon in Virgo joining Mercury, Venus, and Mars, then we can look for more gains overall. On Tuesday, the transiting Moon will join Venus as both will be in fairly close aspect to the natal Jupiter in the TSE chart.

Chinese stocks continue to drag along the bottom here, below all the moving averages as the Shanghai Composite opens trading Monday at 2397. With the square aspect of transiting Mars to the natal Venus in the SSE chart Monday, stocks should decline significantly, perhaps below 2300. By week's end, however, prices should rise with the transits of Mercury and Venus into the 9th house of the SSE chart. 2400-2450 are reasonable targets here.

The Euro sank backwards a bit last week and stands at 1.4674. I had thought we would see more of a rally underway by now but it seems we will have to wait for this week's trading. Monday and Tuesday will likely be higher with the higher oil prices in any event and will correspond with the transiting Moon in Virgo joining Mercury and Venus near the ascendant in the Euro chart. 1.48 is likely, possibly higher. But as transiting Mars squares its natal position by Friday, the Euro may slip back to 1.47. Next week may take the Euro back above 1.50.

Oil closed above $115 last week, and hit $118 in intraday trading, basically confirming our bullish forecast. Prices are continuing this upward trend today in a special trading session to handle market demands in advance of the likely disruption of supply by hurricane Gustav in the Gulf of Mexico. This upward trend will probably continue until Wednesday and the Sun-Saturn conjunction. It will be interesting to see when prices start to fall back as this conjunction will be in near exact square aspect to the natal Jupiter in the futures chart. Whatever the price spike here, prices are likely to come back below $118 by week's end, possibly down to $116. There is a chance that crude will fall only starting Friday, since there will be a grand trine formed with transiting Sun/Saturn, Jupiter, and natal Venus in the Futures chart. Next week looks bullish.

Gold closed marginally higher last week in keeping (barely) with the forecast and opens trading at $836. Intraday trades were as high as $844, indicating a tentative exploration of that crucial $850 resistance level. I think Gold may reach $850 this week but is unlikely to hold on to it by week's end. $900 is looking very possible by the end of September at the latest, but possibly as soon as September 15th.