After a fairly volatile week that featured days of both triple digit losses and gains, New York finished slightly lower. The Dow closed at 11,628 and the S&P at 1292. Last week's forecast had called for a little more upside bias but the early week rally never materialized as the Mars-Pluto square had more energy than I had anticipated. Friday's rally was possibly the result of the approaching Mercury-Venus-Uranus configuration but all in all, the minimal price movement was within expectations.
I think this week looks bearish, especially towards the end as Mercury and Venus both square Pluto. This week is more likely to begin fairly strong, however, as Mercury and Venus move into Virgo to join Mars. There's a reasonable chance we'll see 12k here, but the late week trading suggests that any gains made here won't last by Friday so 11,300-11,500 seems like a better downside target. With the long Labor Day weekend ahead and no trading next Monday, there is a chance that some of the bearishness may be held off until Tuesday Sept 2nd. Nonetheless, Friday should be a down day.
While I had expected some meaningful rally to take place over the next few weeks, I'm much less convinced this will be the case. I think the big down days will overwhelm the up days so the best we can hope for are mini-rallies back to 11,000 - 11,500 from sell offs that are likely to occur in the next two weeks. Once we get into October, all bets are off. I'm very concerned that some kind of major decline in just around the corner, starting in the second half of October, although most of the negative energy is focused around the last week of October and first week of November. This coincides with the US presidential election, so that may be in the mix in some way. The Dow will almost certainly drop below 10,000 at that time, depending on how far it falls before the major selling event occurs. Investors who are long here and are looking to take profits would do well to sell into any rallies in the coming weeks. I would consider anything above 11,500 as acceptable, and 12,000 as heaven sent.
Mumbai closed lower last week on the renewed strength in commodities and fear of inflation. The Sensex finished Friday at 14,401 and the Nifty at 4327. I had thought the early week would produce more gains that would be able to withstand the predicted late week sell off but the market had other ideas. The Mercury-Venus conjunction moves over the 8th house cusp in the Sensex chart early in the week, so that may indicate volatility. Gains may be short-lived, however, as the late week action looks more negative. A Friday close above 14,000 would be fairly decent.
Tokyo's Nikkei had a very bad last week and closed Friday at 12,666, down almost 3%, it's lowest level since March. It's finally starting to catch up to some of the other global equity markets. While a negative outcome is likely here, I do note some patterns of strength in the natal chart of the TSE. The transiting Sun conjoins the ascendant in the Topix chart while Mercury and Venus apply to the natal Jupiter in early Virgo. It's possible that the declines will be relatively smaller than last week's. There is even an outside chance at some net gains here.
The Euro rallied last week on renewed strength in commodities and geopolitical fears over Georgia and opens the week at 1.4792. I believe the worst is over for now for the Euro and this week should see gains, perhaps back to 1.50. As Mercury and Venus move into Virgo, they will both be approaching the Euro's ascendant at 5 Virgo thus providing an upward momentum to prices. 1.55 still seems like a realistic short term target here as the Euro's days in the sun wind down before the autumnal slaughter.
After a volatile week that saw Oil rise above $121 on Russia-US geopolitical tensions, crude settled very close to where it began the week at $114. While I mistakenly thought there would be an early week decline, at least I did foresee the late week recovery in prices. The question now is can Oil hold above $112? I think the answer is yes, although I acknowledge the possibility we may see a retest of long term support levels in the coming weeks. This week looks quite strong, although I think the volatility will continue as we could see price moves of 3% either way. Assuming Monday isn't too negative and prices stay above $112, $116 is a reasonable intraweek target. There's more upside in crude in the coming weeks, so $132 is quite possible at some point.
Gold rallied off its catastrophic lows last week and closed at $829. Like Oil, I expected more early week difficulty that in retrospect had already been manifested by the previous week's sell off. As predicted, the late week trading was generally kinder to Gold as it moved sharply above $800. I'm guardedly optimistic about Gold this week, although next week looks better as transiting Sun moves closer to Saturn in Leo and the Jupiter aspect. If early week declines are below $800, Friday's trading should take it back to current levels and above. For traders waiting for a return to $850, next week seems like a better bet.
