Sunday, August 3, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of Aug 4 - 8


New York ended last week mostly unchanged and the Dow opens trading this week at 11,329 and the S&P at 1260. While my forecast for gains this week was not confirmed by Friday, prices rose above 11,600 at midweek thus providing a plausible exit point. With the Mercury-Ketu conjunction in Ashlesha, this week promises to be volatile with a negative bias especially on Monday and Tuesday. The Mars-Uranus opposition also perfects this week on Wednesday and this will likely add to the volatility. There's a real risk of closes below 11,000 here and that will likely be the interim bottom the market needs to move significantly higher in August.

Despite my belief that the bottom formation would start early with a lower close Friday, Bombay ended with modest gains last week and Sensex opens Monday at 14,656. With Mercury conjoining Ketu so close to the Ascendant in the Nifty Futures chart, I think further gains will be harder to come by this week. The sense of loss may be stronger earlier in the week as transiting Venus opposes the natal Saturn in the BSE 1875 chart. I expect some trades below 14k here, perhaps below 13,500. Once the Sun passes Ketu next week, this market will be on firmer ground to rally higher.

Tokyo was lower last week and opens Monday at 13,094. Last week's forecast did foresee some downward pressure on the Nikkei, and I was more or less correct in predicting little change. My larger oversight was missing Friday's selloff, which was likely due to the transiting Mercury coming under the influence of the natal Mars in the TSE chart. On Monday, the transiting Sun comes under this same probable negative influence of Mars so we can look for a down day. Much of the rest of the week is likely to be biased towards the downside, as transiting Venus conjoins the natal Saturn.

As predicted, the Euro lost more ground last week and opens Monday at 1.5565. There's likely more declines ahead this week as transiting Mars aspects the natal Mercury in the Euro chart. Early in the week looks worse, and we will see trades below 1.54. I would not be too surprised to see even 1.53 for that matter. There may be some late week recovery but not that much.

As predicted, Oil rose last week and opens at $125. I think there's more upside left in this rally, especially earlier in the week as transiting Sun is aspected by the natal Jupiter in the Futures chart. I wouldn't be surprised to see $130 at some point, although gains will probably erode late in the week. Next week looks like another retracement down to $120.

Although our forecast was correct in calling for declines down to $900 last week, Gold finished down overall and opens Monday at $917. I had expected it to bounce back further towards $930 by week's end, hoping that the ingress of Venus into Leo Friday would give it a lift. As it turned out it only made it as high as $925 intraday and Friday was a disappointment. Monday's Venus-Pluto trine near the ascendant of the GLD chart should provide a boost in prices. The midweek action looks less solid, however, as Sun's conjoining with Ketu threatens to send prices lower. Volatility may be extreme this week. The end of the week should be stronger though, as Ashlesha lord Mercury moves into Leo. Overall, Gold should be higher by the end of the week, hopefully to $930.