Thursday, August 7, 2008

Euro falls below 1.54

The rally in the U.S. dollar continues this week as the Euro is now trading below 1.54 for the first time since March. Today's decline comes as ECB President Trichet has confirmed that he is more concerned with weakening growth than inflation and that interest rate bias would be towards lowering rates. This confirms my prediction for this week that the Euro would be in for a rough ride as the transiting Mars aspected both the natal Mercury and Jupiter in the Euro chart. I only wish I had taken the hint that a falling Euro would translate into falling Oil and Gold prices as well this week. It's not a particularly complex association given they have been moving in unison for months now.

I think the price correlation between Euro, Oil, and Gold will continue until there is a a significant correction that takes these prices closer to their long term moving average. This would be about 1.45 in the Euro, $100 in Oil, and $850 in Gold. They also display substantial inverse correlation to world equity prices.