Saturday, February 16, 2008

Market Review -- week of Feb 11-15

All in all, the markets mostly went our way this week. I had forecast and up week in NY and the Dow rose from 12,181 to 12,384 and the S&P from 1331 to 1349. While I got the Monday afternoon rally right, I was mostly off on the intraweek action. I had thought a rally was due late Wednesday and Thursday when it fact it had already hit the weekly highs by then. We did, however, manage to reach our forecast highs above 12,500 and 1360 for an extended period midweek. I am also pleased that the markets rallied as predicted through the afternoon and at the close on Friday. I had hoped this would put them in the green for the day but the Dow finished slightly just short while the S&P was up a single point.

Tokyo also largely followed our game plan as it finished up on the week rising from 13,000 on the NIKKEI to finish at 13,622. Our forecast was also correct on the intraweek trends as the markets were flat Monday and Tuesday and then rose at the end of the week. Our target had been 13,500 for the week so that Friday close was quite a nice call.

Bombay followed this same pattern and we hit the brutal Monday selloff right on the money. The SENSEX bottomed out at 16,500 Monday and Tuesday and then came back strongly at the end of the week to finish at 18,115. My main disappointment here for me was missing the Friday rally of 348 pts as I had predicted a down day. Overall though, the weekly market direction fell within our margin of error.

The Euro had its best week in many months as it peaked at the close Friday at 1.4685 as the US dollar approached the psychological 0.68 support level. While I was correct in forecasting an up week for the Euro, I underestimated its strength. Happily, my revised forecast on Tuesday did correctly predict a testing of the 0.68 level.

I was also largely correct on Gold this week as it fell back towards the end of the week, closing Friday at $901. I had forecast that it could test the $900 level with the Mercury Ketu aspect at the end of the week which is precisely what happened. I mistakenly forecast an up day Monday, however, which turned out to be a barely noticeable $4 gain during early trading after which the price fell. Generally, though, I was pleased with my forecast in terms of market direction and the particulars of intraweek action.