Sunday, February 24, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of Feb 25-29

American markets have been trading within a fairly narrow range for the past few weeks. This will continue this week. The best days will probably be Monday and Tuesdaywhere may see 12,600 on the Dow and 1380 on the S&P on an intraday basis. The mood will turn negative on Wednesday and Thursday as the market will retreat back to those old familiar support levels we saw tested last week. Friday should start with a good rally as the Moon is in good aspect to Jupiter, but the indicators are mixed to negative after that, so short term traders would be advised to sell while the market is rising in the morning. Overall, I think the market will finish close to where it started the week (12,381/1353) but I think we're more likely to finish higher.

Tokyo will probably end the week a little lower. Monday looks positive, as does Friday, but in between we will see some declines. The Wednesday open stands out as a substantial sell-off. Overall, we are likely to see a retesting of 13,000 on the Nikkei but may finish in the 13,300 to 13,600 range.

Bombay's best days of the week will also likely be Monday and Friday, but it will be tough sledding to keep the Sensex above its current level of 17,369 by Friday. Probably we will finish below that level around 17,000. The best chance for a midweek rally is Wednesday, although this will lose some strength at the close. Thursday's close will likely be negative as Moon squares Saturn.

The Euro will likely continue its rally this week and finish above its current levels of 1.485. It will go above 1.49 at some point and may even touch 1.495, although it may occasionally slip below 1.48. Look for a sell-off Monday at midday CET as the Moon aspects Saturn. The best rally of the week will probably be Wednesday late afternoon CET.

Oil will likely push through $100 again this week, but this time it will probably hold above that psychological threshold. Prices will retreat Monday morning EST, but then move higher from there. Thursday looks like a day of consolidation with the rally resuming Friday.

Gold is rallying lately but I think sentiment will turn more cautious this week. The best rallies are likely Monday or Tuesday, both early in the day EST. We will probably close about $950 on one or both of those days. But the rest of the week looks less optimistic, so I think we'll probably finish the week below $940.