American markets lost 1% again today as investors saw no reason to buy stocks in the current climate of uncertainty. It seems that the deeper negativity contained in the applying Sun-Mars square is overwhelming positive sentiment of the Venus-Uranus conjunction. Tomorrow looks like another battle as the tr Moon is in aspect with Ketu which is normally a bearish influence. But the Venus-Uranus perfects, so it's hard to think all the action will be negative. Still I think we'll finish down for the day.
Bombay did finish a little lower yesterday as I thought it might, but not very an appreciable amount. The BSE should fare well for most of the day, although some decline is more likely toward the close.
The Euro didn't do much today. Tomorrow looks like a negative start in Europe but with some recovery by the afternoon EST. We should close again near $1.58 but probably a little lower.
Oil rose 1% today and although Gold only held steady. I think Oil is looking stronger of the two tomorrow and should add to its gains this week. I'm not sure that gold will rise, however.
Friday, March 28, 2008
Wednesday, March 26, 2008
Hedges are back
American markets were down about 1% today as more bad economic numbers came in. This market obviously has a pretty thin skin these days for that sort of thing. That Venus conjunction with the New Moon chart was AWOL today as the Moon-Saturn square dictated the grim mood. I think the market has one more up day in it this week, and the ingress of the Moon into Jyeshta occurs tomorrow with benefic Jupiter high in the sky.
Bombay looks negative for Thursday as the transiting Moon falls under the aspect of natal Ketu in the BSE chart. Tokyo has already started lower.
The Euro continued its winning streak week as it rose past $1.58 as investors again sought hedges against a falling greenback and inflation. Look for more gains tomorrow.
Oil and Gold both had big gains today. Both will continue to come back towards their pre-March 18th levels this week. Tomorrow will be similar to today's action as gains could be over 2%.
Bombay looks negative for Thursday as the transiting Moon falls under the aspect of natal Ketu in the BSE chart. Tokyo has already started lower.
The Euro continued its winning streak week as it rose past $1.58 as investors again sought hedges against a falling greenback and inflation. Look for more gains tomorrow.
Oil and Gold both had big gains today. Both will continue to come back towards their pre-March 18th levels this week. Tomorrow will be similar to today's action as gains could be over 2%.
Tuesday, March 25, 2008
Complex energies
While I had thought that the trend would be mostly negative tomorrow due to the Moon squaring the Saturn-Ketu, there is another contact that is potentially very favourable. The previous New Moon occurred at 23 Aquarius 38 on March 7. Both Mercury and Venus will conjoin that point tomorrow and Thursday which may be a positive influence on sentiment. How these two opposed energies resolve themselves will determine the market's direction. I would tend to think that the bulls have more meat to chew on than the bears on this one.
New York treads water
North American markets stayed flat today amidst negative news of falling consumer sentiment. Given recent nervousness, that might be interpreted as a bullish signal. Two weeks ago, that kind of news would have sparked a sell off. So while I thought we'd be up today, after two days, we are about where I thought we'd be, although I'm not claiming any prescience.
This week's planetary motion will be a good test of the popular 7.52 am chart of the New York Stock Exchange which has 23 Gemini rising (Lahiri). Both Mercury and Venus are transiting on the equal 9th house cusp in Aquarius which ought to spark a gain overall on the week. So far we are up over 1% but if this chart is correct, one would expect at least another 1% before the planets move off.
Bombay roared back to life by climbing above 16k in an impressive 6% rally. I'm less keen on the next couple of days however, as Moon will square the Saturn-Ketu conjunction tomorrow and Moon's ingress into Anuradha in the afternoon suggests it may be hard for the market to finish in the plus column on Thursday. Friday looks good though. Tokyo added 2% as well to get back to 12,700. There is some chance for modest intraday gains Wednesday, but they may not hold by the close. Thursday looks more negative, but Friday should be a high point. But even there, we may well ask if the applying Sun-Mars square will take hold and force investors to the exits. Right now, I don't think so. Next Monday looks more like a day of reckoning, however.
Our Euro forecast is more on track, as it rose two cents today to 1.565. This is looking more like it may hit 1.60 very soon.
Oil rose by just $0.50 while Gold had a strong day adding $16 to close at $930. I had thought that Tuesday would be good for gold and that came to pass. As I suggested early last week before the post-Fed cut gold collapse there appears to be a divergence forming as the Euro and Gold are still valid dollar plays versus Oil, which recession fears have finally undercut its appeal as an inflation hedge. Still, in keeping with my original forecast, I don't expect to see gold duplicating the extent of today's rally, although it may not finish the week as weakly as forecast.
This week's planetary motion will be a good test of the popular 7.52 am chart of the New York Stock Exchange which has 23 Gemini rising (Lahiri). Both Mercury and Venus are transiting on the equal 9th house cusp in Aquarius which ought to spark a gain overall on the week. So far we are up over 1% but if this chart is correct, one would expect at least another 1% before the planets move off.
Bombay roared back to life by climbing above 16k in an impressive 6% rally. I'm less keen on the next couple of days however, as Moon will square the Saturn-Ketu conjunction tomorrow and Moon's ingress into Anuradha in the afternoon suggests it may be hard for the market to finish in the plus column on Thursday. Friday looks good though. Tokyo added 2% as well to get back to 12,700. There is some chance for modest intraday gains Wednesday, but they may not hold by the close. Thursday looks more negative, but Friday should be a high point. But even there, we may well ask if the applying Sun-Mars square will take hold and force investors to the exits. Right now, I don't think so. Next Monday looks more like a day of reckoning, however.
Our Euro forecast is more on track, as it rose two cents today to 1.565. This is looking more like it may hit 1.60 very soon.
Oil rose by just $0.50 while Gold had a strong day adding $16 to close at $930. I had thought that Tuesday would be good for gold and that came to pass. As I suggested early last week before the post-Fed cut gold collapse there appears to be a divergence forming as the Euro and Gold are still valid dollar plays versus Oil, which recession fears have finally undercut its appeal as an inflation hedge. Still, in keeping with my original forecast, I don't expect to see gold duplicating the extent of today's rally, although it may not finish the week as weakly as forecast.
Good news buoys markets
Some good news on the housing front and a larger bid for Bear Stearns
got the markets going 1.5% higher -- a day earlier than I expected. I
had thought Tuesday would seen a big 2% gain. Contrary to my previous
call for an overall negative week, I think we're headed mostly higher
here. Tomorrow still looks good to me so we may start to run up against
resistance levels at 12,750/1370. I think there's a fair chance we will
break through them at some point in the day, even if we fall back
beneath them at the close. There is a good chance for a major dip in
the afternoon.
It's worth noting that Mercury-Venus conjoined today as Venus
surrendered its leading position to Mercury. This conjunction fell
exactly on the natal Sun in the S&P chart so it's not too surprising
that we went up. It will be interesting to see how much upward karma is
left in both those conjunctions for tomorrow and beyond.
got the markets going 1.5% higher -- a day earlier than I expected. I
had thought Tuesday would seen a big 2% gain. Contrary to my previous
call for an overall negative week, I think we're headed mostly higher
here. Tomorrow still looks good to me so we may start to run up against
resistance levels at 12,750/1370. I think there's a fair chance we will
break through them at some point in the day, even if we fall back
beneath them at the close. There is a good chance for a major dip in
the afternoon.
It's worth noting that Mercury-Venus conjoined today as Venus
surrendered its leading position to Mercury. This conjunction fell
exactly on the natal Sun in the S&P chart so it's not too surprising
that we went up. It will be interesting to see how much upward karma is
left in both those conjunctions for tomorrow and beyond.
Sunday, March 23, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of March 24-28
The NYSE is coming off a life-saving rally last week. This week will be a crucial opportunity for a respite with recent nervousness. Certainly, there are some nice planetary configurations to factor in, particularly the equal degree alignment between Mercury, Venus, Jupiter, and Uranus. While this is a fairly rare occurrence, I don't think it will result in a big gain. That's partially due to a fairly bearish-looking March 21 Full Moon that featured an ascendant hemmed in between Mars and Saturn/Ketu. We will have days with large rises, probably on Tuesday and to a lesser extent on Thursday. But the overall market will remain mixed and I believe we will close Friday within 1% of our present levels, probably on the downside. I will make some revised daily forecasts through the week.
Monday looks modestly negative (<1%) as the Moon is in Rahu/Saturn at the open. If the market drops more than 1%, the week will be worse than I thought. Tuesday appears to be the best day (+2%) as the Moon is in Jupiter's nakshatra while completing that upbeat configuration of aforementioned planets. Look for the rally to fade in the afternoon after perfection of the lunar aspect. Wednesday looks like the worst day (-2%) as the Moon is in Saturn/Mercury and squares the Saturn-Nodes. Thursday's Moon is in Mercury's star while the planet of trading enjoys a strong placement. I'm expecting at least a rise of 1%. Friday looks modestly negative as the Moon transits Mercury-Saturn. There is a chance for a larger loss here of perhaps 2% but more likely it will be held to 1% on late buying.
Tokyo will likely track higher this week as the Full Moon showed a clustering of benefics around the ascendant. The Nikkei starts the week at 12,482 and we may see 13k at some point. Monday looks good. Wednesday appears to be the best day, with gains over 2% possible. Friday may be negative as the Moon enters the 6th house of the TSE chart.
Bombay starts the week at 14,994 and will likely end the week in negative territory reinforcing the bearishness. The Full Moon occurred opposite the natal Saturn in the BSE chart and the transiting Sun is between the natal Saturn-Ketu conjunction. Things may get grim here, and we may go below 14,000k at some point. Thursday looks worst.
After the more modest rate cut and revival of confidence in the US dollar, a lot of investors cut their inflation hedge instruments and got out of gold, oil and the Euro. As a result, the Euro fell back under $1.55. I think it's due to rise again this week back near its recent highs, perhaps to $1.57 or $1.58. We are likely looking at an up week here, with real strength towards the end of the week. $1.60 is very possible. The following week also looks bullish for the Euro, even if other commodities continue to weaken.
Opening the week at $101, Oil looks like it will continue to weaken this week. We may go lower than $98. Thursday looks like a gain as the Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. Friday looks bearish.
Gold looks like it may be in better shape this week to rise above its $920 open, although it's not likely to resume its frenetic bull run for a little while, perhaps in May or June. Monday looks like a gain, especially in the afternoon. Tuesday also has the potential to move up, although things may get shaky after that. Overall, I think we'll end the week lower, but the declines will be more orderly suggesting a consolidation near $850-900 may be taking place. We may test below $900 at some point.
Monday looks modestly negative (<1%) as the Moon is in Rahu/Saturn at the open. If the market drops more than 1%, the week will be worse than I thought. Tuesday appears to be the best day (+2%) as the Moon is in Jupiter's nakshatra while completing that upbeat configuration of aforementioned planets. Look for the rally to fade in the afternoon after perfection of the lunar aspect. Wednesday looks like the worst day (-2%) as the Moon is in Saturn/Mercury and squares the Saturn-Nodes. Thursday's Moon is in Mercury's star while the planet of trading enjoys a strong placement. I'm expecting at least a rise of 1%. Friday looks modestly negative as the Moon transits Mercury-Saturn. There is a chance for a larger loss here of perhaps 2% but more likely it will be held to 1% on late buying.
Tokyo will likely track higher this week as the Full Moon showed a clustering of benefics around the ascendant. The Nikkei starts the week at 12,482 and we may see 13k at some point. Monday looks good. Wednesday appears to be the best day, with gains over 2% possible. Friday may be negative as the Moon enters the 6th house of the TSE chart.
Bombay starts the week at 14,994 and will likely end the week in negative territory reinforcing the bearishness. The Full Moon occurred opposite the natal Saturn in the BSE chart and the transiting Sun is between the natal Saturn-Ketu conjunction. Things may get grim here, and we may go below 14,000k at some point. Thursday looks worst.
After the more modest rate cut and revival of confidence in the US dollar, a lot of investors cut their inflation hedge instruments and got out of gold, oil and the Euro. As a result, the Euro fell back under $1.55. I think it's due to rise again this week back near its recent highs, perhaps to $1.57 or $1.58. We are likely looking at an up week here, with real strength towards the end of the week. $1.60 is very possible. The following week also looks bullish for the Euro, even if other commodities continue to weaken.
Opening the week at $101, Oil looks like it will continue to weaken this week. We may go lower than $98. Thursday looks like a gain as the Moon conjoins the natal Jupiter. Friday looks bearish.
Gold looks like it may be in better shape this week to rise above its $920 open, although it's not likely to resume its frenetic bull run for a little while, perhaps in May or June. Monday looks like a gain, especially in the afternoon. Tuesday also has the potential to move up, although things may get shaky after that. Overall, I think we'll end the week lower, but the declines will be more orderly suggesting a consolidation near $850-900 may be taking place. We may test below $900 at some point.
Friday, March 21, 2008
Market Review - week of Mar 17-21
Markets came back strong after the Fed rate cut as the Dow closed up 261 points to 12,361 while the SPX finished up 31 to close at 1329. I had thought we were due for a rally, but I reckoned it would be next week so my bearish forecast this week missed the mark. We're still in line with our medium term forecast of sideways movement between 1270 and 1380. Early April may see some rallies to the high side of that range, but the end of the month looks bearish as Rahu will tightly conjoin Neptune as Neptune prepares to enter Aquarius.
Tokyo closed up for the week at 12,482, again upstaging my gloomy forecast. I think Tokyo is likely to start a significant rally in April that extends into May. This may take the Nikkei up to recent resistance levels to14,000. Maybe they'll finally get around to appointing someone to head the BOJ. Bombay did follow the script I had prepared and closed below 15,000 as forecast. While we might see some gains in the weeks ahead, I don't think there is much upside to the Sensex in the coming months while the downside risk is hard to ignore. There is solid support at 14,000 that will be severely tested in the coming months. I don't think it's going to hold.
The Euro finally succumbed to some greenback optimism and broke it's winning streak closing at $1.543. Our medium term forecast for a much higher Euro above 1.60 is still in place but we'll have to wait a while longer.
I correctly called the oil pullback this week as it closed at 101.84. I think it's likely to drift down further to the $90 to $100 range over the next two months as fears of a slowdown take root. Prices should rebound after Jupiter turns retrograde in early May. The late summer should see prices making new all-time highs.
Gold's fall from stratospheric grace was perhaps the biggest story this week. It was one I missed unfortunately. I knew that there was a no-man's land in between Mercury and Venus in the gold futures chart that transiting Jupiter could not hope to straddle indefinitely. It seems to have lost its boosting power in the middle, just as transiting Mars was moving into position in the 6th house. There may be a pullback under $900 in the coming weeks as the price consolidates with profit taking. We may still see rallies towards $1000 in April but I'm not sure they will succeed. The medium term prospects for gold are still very bullish by my reckoning as Jupiter's retrograde motion in May will likely help support prices. A monster rally will ensue in August and September where gold will likely move past $1100 and well beyond.
Tokyo closed up for the week at 12,482, again upstaging my gloomy forecast. I think Tokyo is likely to start a significant rally in April that extends into May. This may take the Nikkei up to recent resistance levels to14,000. Maybe they'll finally get around to appointing someone to head the BOJ. Bombay did follow the script I had prepared and closed below 15,000 as forecast. While we might see some gains in the weeks ahead, I don't think there is much upside to the Sensex in the coming months while the downside risk is hard to ignore. There is solid support at 14,000 that will be severely tested in the coming months. I don't think it's going to hold.
The Euro finally succumbed to some greenback optimism and broke it's winning streak closing at $1.543. Our medium term forecast for a much higher Euro above 1.60 is still in place but we'll have to wait a while longer.
I correctly called the oil pullback this week as it closed at 101.84. I think it's likely to drift down further to the $90 to $100 range over the next two months as fears of a slowdown take root. Prices should rebound after Jupiter turns retrograde in early May. The late summer should see prices making new all-time highs.
Gold's fall from stratospheric grace was perhaps the biggest story this week. It was one I missed unfortunately. I knew that there was a no-man's land in between Mercury and Venus in the gold futures chart that transiting Jupiter could not hope to straddle indefinitely. It seems to have lost its boosting power in the middle, just as transiting Mars was moving into position in the 6th house. There may be a pullback under $900 in the coming weeks as the price consolidates with profit taking. We may still see rallies towards $1000 in April but I'm not sure they will succeed. The medium term prospects for gold are still very bullish by my reckoning as Jupiter's retrograde motion in May will likely help support prices. A monster rally will ensue in August and September where gold will likely move past $1100 and well beyond.
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