New York sold off 2.5% after yesterday's big run-up as investors looked to lock in some gains in the midst of continuing uncertainty. The Dow closed off 293 points to 12,099 while the SPX closed at 1298, down 32. This is roughly in keeping with yesterday's negative forecast. Tomorrow looks pretty good as the Moon trines Jupiter at midday. I think we should finish up moderately for the day and the week.
Overseas markets have not bounced back as strongly on the heels of NY's gains however. Tokyo closed up 300 points to 12,260 but it's unlikely to get back to previous support levels (12,600), although I think an afternoon rally is very possible that puts the Nikkei in the green. Bombay was also sluggish yesterday as the Sensex closed up 1% to 14,993. It is sadly fulfilling our bearish forecast for the week. Thursday looks better, but it's also not going to get back to 16k
.
Commodities sold off sharply as oil finished at $102, down $6. Gold lost $59 to $945. Our bearish forecast for crude will easily be fulfilled this week and its doubtful that oil will stage much of a rally. Gold is also likely to continue to slip backwards until next week.
Despite the rate disappointment, the Euro is holding on to $1.562. This bodes well for its strength down the road. It will likely resume its climb tomorrow.
Wednesday, March 19, 2008
Gold down $60
Gold prices are plummeting today as investors bail out of the safe haven. It's now down under $950.
I hadn't foreseen this decline although I knew that we were in a volatile period where sharp rises and drops were possible.
Here's my current best guess on the astrological causes for today's plunge.
If we use the 10.00 am Gold futures chart (4 Aq rising), we know that transiting Rahu is sitting right on that ascendant. That makes sudden prices changes more likely, although the direction is not indicated.
We also know that this chart is running Venus-Saturn-Mercury dasha. Working backwards, natal Mercury (23 Sg) was recently conjoined by tr Jupiter but now that Jupiter is more than a degree away and separating (24 Sg). This is a bearish influence as I have noted that more often than not, aspects give their fullest effects during application and conjunction. One problem lies in identifying the exact day that hitherto bullish aspect loses its strength.
Transiting Mercury is in an interesting situation. While it is close to transiting Venus, presumably a favourable influence, and it is separating from the opposition aspect of transiting Saturn (another presumably bullish influence), today the transiting Moon joined tr Saturn to oppose tr Mercury. This Lunar influence may have brought forward some of the negative energies of the Saturn opposition to Mercury.
Subperiod lord Saturn is not closely aspected by any planet, although by transit, we may infer a stressful condition owing to the conjunction of tr Moon and tr Mercury. An added possible layer of bearish influence may be found in the fact that Mercury rules the dussthana 8th and Moon rules the dussthana 6th in the natal chart. Any transit combination of these planets with dasha lords may tend to indicate price declines.
But all this is sheer hypothesis as I'm nowhere near satisfied with this explanation. Yet another one of the market's enduring puzzles.
I'm still expecting a major rise Monday and Tuesday next week as the Mer-Ven conjoins the natal Jupiter. It may not take us back over $1000, however.
Other down days will include March 28-31 as tr Mars exactly opposes the natal Sun while tr Sun opposes natal Pluto forming a Western-style "Grand Cross". This looks like another significant sell off.
The next major bullish influence will the tr Jupiter stationing near the natal Venus in late April, soon after which we will likely see another sharp decline.
I'm not sure about the near term top . I think we may have another chance at new highs in April, and then again in August and later on in December. But after April, I think there will be price consolidation in gold that does not bode well for it overall. It may be time to rethink the basis of this secular rally in gold.
I hadn't foreseen this decline although I knew that we were in a volatile period where sharp rises and drops were possible.
Here's my current best guess on the astrological causes for today's plunge.
If we use the 10.00 am Gold futures chart (4 Aq rising), we know that transiting Rahu is sitting right on that ascendant. That makes sudden prices changes more likely, although the direction is not indicated.
We also know that this chart is running Venus-Saturn-Mercury dasha. Working backwards, natal Mercury (23 Sg) was recently conjoined by tr Jupiter but now that Jupiter is more than a degree away and separating (24 Sg). This is a bearish influence as I have noted that more often than not, aspects give their fullest effects during application and conjunction. One problem lies in identifying the exact day that hitherto bullish aspect loses its strength.
Transiting Mercury is in an interesting situation. While it is close to transiting Venus, presumably a favourable influence, and it is separating from the opposition aspect of transiting Saturn (another presumably bullish influence), today the transiting Moon joined tr Saturn to oppose tr Mercury. This Lunar influence may have brought forward some of the negative energies of the Saturn opposition to Mercury.
Subperiod lord Saturn is not closely aspected by any planet, although by transit, we may infer a stressful condition owing to the conjunction of tr Moon and tr Mercury. An added possible layer of bearish influence may be found in the fact that Mercury rules the dussthana 8th and Moon rules the dussthana 6th in the natal chart. Any transit combination of these planets with dasha lords may tend to indicate price declines.
But all this is sheer hypothesis as I'm nowhere near satisfied with this explanation. Yet another one of the market's enduring puzzles.
I'm still expecting a major rise Monday and Tuesday next week as the Mer-Ven conjoins the natal Jupiter. It may not take us back over $1000, however.
Other down days will include March 28-31 as tr Mars exactly opposes the natal Sun while tr Sun opposes natal Pluto forming a Western-style "Grand Cross". This looks like another significant sell off.
The next major bullish influence will the tr Jupiter stationing near the natal Venus in late April, soon after which we will likely see another sharp decline.
I'm not sure about the near term top . I think we may have another chance at new highs in April, and then again in August and later on in December. But after April, I think there will be price consolidation in gold that does not bode well for it overall. It may be time to rethink the basis of this secular rally in gold.
Tuesday, March 18, 2008
Markets up off the mat -- at least for now
NY markets staged a stunning 4% rally today in the wake of a huge rate 75 pt cut and some decent earnings news from teetering investment houses. Both key indexes closed above their old support levels of 12,150 and 1320 as investors did not succumb to fear.
Although I missed this rally completely, I take some comfort in the fact that the markets are moving within the range I laid out back in January and February. At that time, I thought that the markets would be increasingly choppy especially on the downside and rallies towards 1400 on the SPX or 13,200 on the Dow wouldn't stick. So the official bear market call can stay on the shelf for another few weeks until the last gasps of air are gone which should be in April or May.
Tomorrow starts off with the Moon conjunct Saturn so it looks like an early round of profit taking. I don't foresee a big move tomorrow either way, although I think we'll likely finish somewhat lower.
I had thought the market was due for a decent rally starting next week, but it seems to have got an early start. We might see a little give back down to 1310/11,900 for the rest of this week, but next week's rally will take us back in heady territory of the old resistance levels near 1400. I don't think we'll quite get all the way back, but it will look impressive.
Although I missed this rally completely, I take some comfort in the fact that the markets are moving within the range I laid out back in January and February. At that time, I thought that the markets would be increasingly choppy especially on the downside and rallies towards 1400 on the SPX or 13,200 on the Dow wouldn't stick. So the official bear market call can stay on the shelf for another few weeks until the last gasps of air are gone which should be in April or May.
Tomorrow starts off with the Moon conjunct Saturn so it looks like an early round of profit taking. I don't foresee a big move tomorrow either way, although I think we'll likely finish somewhat lower.
I had thought the market was due for a decent rally starting next week, but it seems to have got an early start. We might see a little give back down to 1310/11,900 for the rest of this week, but next week's rally will take us back in heady territory of the old resistance levels near 1400. I don't think we'll quite get all the way back, but it will look impressive.
Monday, March 17, 2008
Queasy Monday
After the Fed's emergency rate and the shocking Bear Stearns takeover, NY markets bravely fought their way uphill all day finishing pretty much where we thought they would finish -- just down about 1%. The planet of trading, Mercury was aspected full of Saturn's bearish sentiment. The Dow closed up 21 to 11,972 but the broader S&P closed down 11 to 1276. They'll be no shortage of news tomorrow as Lehman Bros and Merrill Lymch report earnings (they could be the next corporate welfare cases) while the FOMC meets in the afternoon. I don't see much evidence for a big snapback rally here, but neither do I see a big downdraft either. Sentiment still looks negative, but I'm less convinced of that than I was of today's trading. I'd say we stand a good chance to lose another 1% although the intraday range will probably be huge. Overall, the week still looks bearish. Friday is a holiday (Good Friday) so everything will come together on Thursday. Right now, it's looking middling to negative, which is pretty amazing considering we're in the middle of perhaps the worst financial crisis since WW2.
Tokyo and Bombay were down sharply as the Nikkei closed at 11,787 and the Sensex finished at 14,809. Look for relief rallies there on Tuesday although I wouldn't expect more than a 2-3% comeback in both.
Oil fell as forecast, as crude slipped $5 to $105. Gold rallied early overseas to $1025 but was caught up in the selling mood in North America and finished marginally higher to $1002. It seems the speculators may now have de-camped from oil and set up shop in gold. Oil will probably fall further (below $100 maybe) and gold will hold firm and likely try for $1010.
The Euro was up a bit closing at $1. 573, again after hitting $1.59 overseas. The Euro will likely go into orbit tomorrow after the Fed cuts rates by likely 1 full percent.
Tokyo and Bombay were down sharply as the Nikkei closed at 11,787 and the Sensex finished at 14,809. Look for relief rallies there on Tuesday although I wouldn't expect more than a 2-3% comeback in both.
Oil fell as forecast, as crude slipped $5 to $105. Gold rallied early overseas to $1025 but was caught up in the selling mood in North America and finished marginally higher to $1002. It seems the speculators may now have de-camped from oil and set up shop in gold. Oil will probably fall further (below $100 maybe) and gold will hold firm and likely try for $1010.
The Euro was up a bit closing at $1. 573, again after hitting $1.59 overseas. The Euro will likely go into orbit tomorrow after the Fed cuts rates by likely 1 full percent.
Sunday, March 16, 2008
Market Forecast -- week of Mar 17-21
NY starts the week at 11,951/1288. This looks like another negative week upcoming as a number of hard aspects are perfecting. In the background there is the promise of some upside as a harmonically favourable relationship between Jupiter and Uranus is forming. I still think this has another week to go before we see any big upwards movement from it, however. Monday should decline by at least 1% as Mercury opposes Saturn. Friday also looks quite bearish. I think we'll see new intraday and closing lows (below 11,500/1270) at some point in NY in the week, possibly as low as 11,250/1250.
Tokyo and Bombay will follow suit . The Nikkei starts at 12,241 and is already down below 12k in early Monday trading. I think we'll see a range from 12,500 to 11,400 during the week and it will close below 12k by Friday. The Sensex opens at 15,760 Monday and will likely finish below that level by Friday, possibly near 15k. A range between 16,200 and 14,500 is possible.
The Euro continues on its bull run this week and into the Spring. Monday and Tuesday look fantastic and we should see at least a 2 cent gain in those days, perhaps getting us as high as 1.60 by week's end. We are in good position to ride the Euro significantly higher by May.
Oil is due for a pullback this week as tr Sun squares Ketu and Neptune while Mercury and Venus square Uranus-Jupiter. While some new intraday highs above $111 are possible, I think the safer bet is the downside, perhaps as low as $105. And given the recent speculative volatility of this market, I would not be surprised to see crude to fall below that.
Gold is shining brightly this week and will add to last week's historic gains. While we may see lows in the $990 range, it will close above $1010 by Friday, probably at least $1020-1030.
Tokyo and Bombay will follow suit . The Nikkei starts at 12,241 and is already down below 12k in early Monday trading. I think we'll see a range from 12,500 to 11,400 during the week and it will close below 12k by Friday. The Sensex opens at 15,760 Monday and will likely finish below that level by Friday, possibly near 15k. A range between 16,200 and 14,500 is possible.
The Euro continues on its bull run this week and into the Spring. Monday and Tuesday look fantastic and we should see at least a 2 cent gain in those days, perhaps getting us as high as 1.60 by week's end. We are in good position to ride the Euro significantly higher by May.
Oil is due for a pullback this week as tr Sun squares Ketu and Neptune while Mercury and Venus square Uranus-Jupiter. While some new intraday highs above $111 are possible, I think the safer bet is the downside, perhaps as low as $105. And given the recent speculative volatility of this market, I would not be surprised to see crude to fall below that.
Gold is shining brightly this week and will add to last week's historic gains. While we may see lows in the $990 range, it will close above $1010 by Friday, probably at least $1020-1030.
Friday, March 14, 2008
Market Review -- week of Mar 10-14
The week finished up as it started -- down. Markets were down about 2% as the Dow fell 194 points to 11,951 and the S&P dropped 27 to 1288. For the week, the Dow gained 58 points while the S&P lost 5. My weekly forecast had called for a modest decline so this mostly flat result was a little wide of the mark but still credible as the week did end bearishly. Our call that previous lows would be broken on an intraday basis was also overly bearish as the previous low on the S&P 1270 was tested on Monday (1272) but held firm the rest of the week, especially after Tuesday's spectacular run up. Monday holds the promise of a Mercury-Saturn opposition.
My bearish forecast better captured the action on the Tokyo and Bombay markets. Tokyo did finish down on the week as forecast to close at 12,241 (Monday open: 12,782) while the Sensex ended the week at 15,760, down modestly from Monday's open at 15,975. The Nikkei's intraday low of 12,167 wasn't far off our forecast for 12,000 and is its lowest level since 2005.
I continue to be correct on the direction of the Euro but still too conservative. I had thought we wouldn't go beyond $1.55 until next week but alas, we closed at $1.567 as the abandonment of the greenback continues in the face of inflationary bailouts by the Fed.
Oil rode the bull again this week as forecast, and my call for $110 was more or less correct. Oil finished at $110.21, after being as high as $112.
Gold finally reached $1000 on Friday touching as high as $1009, although it closed just under at $999.50. I wasn't sure we could do it this week but I did think that if we did, it would be on Friday and it was. On the other hand, the lack of a close about $1000 may force us to take Monday more seriously as an historic day on that score.
My bearish forecast better captured the action on the Tokyo and Bombay markets. Tokyo did finish down on the week as forecast to close at 12,241 (Monday open: 12,782) while the Sensex ended the week at 15,760, down modestly from Monday's open at 15,975. The Nikkei's intraday low of 12,167 wasn't far off our forecast for 12,000 and is its lowest level since 2005.
I continue to be correct on the direction of the Euro but still too conservative. I had thought we wouldn't go beyond $1.55 until next week but alas, we closed at $1.567 as the abandonment of the greenback continues in the face of inflationary bailouts by the Fed.
Oil rode the bull again this week as forecast, and my call for $110 was more or less correct. Oil finished at $110.21, after being as high as $112.
Gold finally reached $1000 on Friday touching as high as $1009, although it closed just under at $999.50. I wasn't sure we could do it this week but I did think that if we did, it would be on Friday and it was. On the other hand, the lack of a close about $1000 may force us to take Monday more seriously as an historic day on that score.
Wednesday, March 12, 2008
Euro soars past $1.55
As forecasted on Sunday, the Euro hit a new record of 1.555 today just
as the Sun conjoined its natal Jupiter. Our bullish forecast on the
Euro has been too conservative perhaps and with ongoing concerns about
the US economy it seems that 1.60 may be only weeks rather than months
away. It seems that medium term top may form in May or June. This
rally has much more to go, perhaps to 1.70 or 1.80.
Oil hit $110 today as our bullish forecast had suggested. Tomorrow
looks like the speculative frenzy will continue perhaps as high as
$112-114 with the biggest gains occurring at the NY open. There will
profit taking after that that may take the price back towards $110.
Gold rose today as forecast although we didn't manage a $10 gain.
Bullion closed at $982 up $8. Tomorrow looks fairly bullish although
gains may be modest. Friday looks better though, as does Monday. It
may put us over the top finally.
NY markets closed moderately lower after yesterday's big gain. As
forecast yesterday we did see an afternoon sell off with the approach of
the Moon-Saturn square and the Dow closed at 12,110 off 46, and the S&P
finished at 1308 down 11. I think we're headed down further from here
for the rest of the week with Monday's lows in the cross hairs. Expect
to see the S&P back around 1280.
Bombay and Tokyo did not fare too well in the wake of the US rally
yesterday. The Sensex was basically unchanged at 16,127 and the Nikkei
closed up 202 at 12,861. Thursday looks mildly bearish so the close may
be under 16k on the BSE while Tokyo will likely experience a significant
decline, possibly down to 12,600 or lower.
as the Sun conjoined its natal Jupiter. Our bullish forecast on the
Euro has been too conservative perhaps and with ongoing concerns about
the US economy it seems that 1.60 may be only weeks rather than months
away. It seems that medium term top may form in May or June. This
rally has much more to go, perhaps to 1.70 or 1.80.
Oil hit $110 today as our bullish forecast had suggested. Tomorrow
looks like the speculative frenzy will continue perhaps as high as
$112-114 with the biggest gains occurring at the NY open. There will
profit taking after that that may take the price back towards $110.
Gold rose today as forecast although we didn't manage a $10 gain.
Bullion closed at $982 up $8. Tomorrow looks fairly bullish although
gains may be modest. Friday looks better though, as does Monday. It
may put us over the top finally.
NY markets closed moderately lower after yesterday's big gain. As
forecast yesterday we did see an afternoon sell off with the approach of
the Moon-Saturn square and the Dow closed at 12,110 off 46, and the S&P
finished at 1308 down 11. I think we're headed down further from here
for the rest of the week with Monday's lows in the cross hairs. Expect
to see the S&P back around 1280.
Bombay and Tokyo did not fare too well in the wake of the US rally
yesterday. The Sensex was basically unchanged at 16,127 and the Nikkei
closed up 202 at 12,861. Thursday looks mildly bearish so the close may
be under 16k on the BSE while Tokyo will likely experience a significant
decline, possibly down to 12,600 or lower.
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