Tuesday, June 17, 2008

Oil falters

Oil stayed around $134 today and it appears that the rally is over for now. Tomorrow may have a chance at a rise but things generally look weaker going forward. I expect it to form a bottom around $110-120 over the next few weeks. I would also not be surprised to see it sink as low as $100. Late July will see prices rise again and current levels will be eclipsed going into the Fall. We will almost certainly see $150 and perhaps much higher. The first week of August looks very strong for oil in the futures chart.

Gold is still in the process of forming a bottom in advance of the next move up. I would not be surprised to see short term sell offs to $850 in the next couple of weeks, although that is more of a worse case scenario. Chances are we stay between $860-920 in the next few weeks and then another big rally over $1000 ensues beginning in August.