Saturday, June 7, 2008

Market Forecast -- June 9 - 13

Stocks in New York plunged 3% on Friday and ended the week lower as the Dow closed at 12,209 and the S&P at 1360. This confirmed last week's bearish forecast for Friday in particular and for the negative trend on the week. If anything, I underestimated the extent of the pullback as I had thought the larger declines would come the week following with Mars conjoining Ketu. These declines are still imminent, however, so we will likely see more downside here. The end of the week looks especially negative with the tr Sun-Venus squaring Uranus and the tr Mars moving in close to Ketu as it conjoins the natal Uranus in the 1792 chart. If the market manages some gains midweek, it may limit the losses to perhaps 2-3%. But that looks like a best case scenario. The Dow may re-test its March lows of 11,750 at some point, while the S&P may find itself approaching its winter support level of 1320. Monday looks quite negative, while Tuesday will probably see a significant snapback rally as the Moon trines Jupiter. Buckle up.

Tokyo has stood up rather well of late and the Nikkei is still well above 14,000. This is about to change, however, as tr Saturn will square the natal 11th house Venus in the TSE chart. Monday will be predictably terrible, but look for a larger than NY's 3% loss as the transiting Moon conjoins both the transiting Saturn and the natal Saturn of this chart. Expect the short term low to occur early next week (June 16-18) as tr Sun-Venus will pass over the equal 12th house cusp. I think it will decline below 13,000.

The Euro had a big day Friday against the US dollar and closed at 1.5778. Its gain of 2 cents on the week was broadly in line with our bullish forecast. I think the Euro will continue to move higher this week as tr Sun-Venus is aspecting the natal chart ruler Mercury. 1.60 is well within reach. Tuesday may be the best day of the week, as the Tr Moon falls under the benefic aspect of natal Jupiter. Friday may also have some significant upside as Tr Venus conjoins the natal Moon in the 10th house. That may be an indicator of a new all-time high in the Euro against the dollar.

Oil had a record-setting day on Friday as it closed up over $10 to finish at $138. I had forecast that there would be a second leg up in this rally with the Sun-Venus conjunction moving to the ascendant of the futures chart, although I had thought it would not arrive until this week. Clearly, another major speculative rally is underway. Part of the difficulty calling the top concerns the ambiguity of the futures chart itself. Its exact time of inception is unknown. If it is in fact 9.00 a.m as Friday's rally would strongly suggest given the impact of Sun and Venus passing over the ascendant, then the rally may not have that much further to go. One possible sign of a top would be the Sun and Venus falling under the exact aspect of Rahu on Tuesday and Wednesday. I don't think it will be done then, however, as Sun and Venus will trine Neptune on Friday. Neptune is considered by many astrologers to be the significator for oil. It's usually impossible calling the date and level of the exact market top but I think Friday is the most likely candidate. I have no idea what the price might be by then. $150 seems almost certain given all the talk, and it may be much higher than that. Whatever day it turns out to be, I don't think we will see much downward movement until perhaps the Mercury station on the 19th. This will be aspected by the Jupiter in the Oil futures chart, so its separation from this favourable energy may take some of the enthusiasm out of this market.

With the result of the dollar weakeness, Gold rose sharply on Friday and closed at $899. While my forecast mixed up the days for the larger price movements, I did mention $900 as a possible close and I did allude to increased volatility. It's noteworthy that the greater than normal number of aspects in the Gold futures chart equated to a big gain, even though many of the aspects involved malefics and supposedly hard aspects. I think Gold is likely headed higher this week, although there is an opposition aspect from tr Mars to the natal Moon in the ETF chart that makes me wonder if we won't see at least one negative day. $920 seems within reach. Monday looks positive as tr Moon will be aspected by the natal Jupiter. I think this short term up trend will probably continue into early next week, up until about June 18th. Actually, there seems to be a general bullish trend until perhaps the first week of July when Sun and Venus will be aspected by the natal Jupiter. I would not be surprised to see gold at $950 by then.