Saturday, June 14, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of June 16 - 20

New York ended the week strongly but ended flat for the week as the Dow opens at 12,307 and SPX at 1360. I missed this late week rise, believing that the nastiness of the Mars-Ketu conjunction would cast a pall on whatever rosy fantasy the Venus-Neptune trine could conjure. No such luck. This week seems also biased towards the downside as the Mars-Ketu may offer some residual negativity while Venus and then the Sun oppose Pluto. Some late week rally is possible, especially after Mercury turns direct on Thursday morning (EDT), but overall, I think we will see continued retracement towards 12,000 and 1320. Monday may be the worst, however, as the Moon will square Saturn. With the Mars-Saturn conjunction in July still ahead, this may not be a good time to commit new money to the market. Friday will be an interesting battle as the Moon-Jupiter conjunction suggests a ray of optimism amidst the gathering gloom of the applying Mars-Neptune opposition. Given the proximity of the Sun-Pluto opposition that day, I would not bet on any bull run.

The BSE is coming off a down week and opens at 15,189. Thanks to the late week rally, this is higher than forecast and the Sensex remains above the psychologically important 15k level. Monday looks negative as the Moon is in square aspect to Saturn, while Mars has only just moved past Ketu in the sky. I believe it has yet to deliver its bearish karmic payload. Transiting Venus passing over the natal 12th house Mars in the Nifty Futures chart so that is another potential source of decline early in the week. While I think we're headed for a close decisively below 15k, I don't think declines here are going to be massive. There's a good chance we'll stay above 14k and may well be close to 15k until early July. After that, the lows may well be re-tested. Longer term, I am looking for some kind of substantial rally in August.

The Nikkei opens at 13,973 after a negative week. This week really does not look good for the TSE as both tr Venus and Sun will fall under the disruptive influence of the natal Ketu. While this is not in itself bearish, dispositor Mercury is going to be retrograde while tr Saturn is squaring the natal Venus very closely. 13,500 is very possible here, although if we see a nasty Monday or Tuesday, it could go much lower.

The US dollar rallied strongly last week and the Euro bore the brunt of it. It opens trading Monday at 1.5393. I missed this move completely, although in retrospect, I can see the source of my error. My much-hoped for tr Venus to the natal Moon fell under the influence of the natal Ketu so this likely threw a wrench into the works. While central banks are trying to talk up the dollar, I still believe the Euro is due for a rally, as tr Venus moves over the natal Midheaven. It is possible that the Euro sell off continues given the presence of Pluto on the IC, but I think the bias will be towards the upside. Whatever direction the Euro takes, there is a good chance that it will be large -- possibly 2 cents in one day. At the same time, tr Mars conjoins the natal Rahu in the 12th opposite Neptune. This appears to be a very bearish indicator. One possible scenario is for a Euro rally early in the week back to 1.55 or 1.56 and then another decline Thursday and Friday back to current levels. It definitely looks volatile this week although I would like to think we finish higher than 1.54.

After an early week sell off, Oil rallied towards the end of the week but could not match last week's prices. It opens at $134.86. I think Oil will attempt another rally this week, as the tr Venus conjoins the natal Rahu in the Futures chart. With Pluto anchoring the aspect through an opposition aspect, there is a chance for a spectacular rally Monday or Tuesday. But it is anything but certain. More than anything, this combination suggests a large price swing and it could be in either direction. As the week progresses, prices should stabilize. I think we're getting very near the short term high and we may hit it this week, if we haven't already. Late June and July looks worse for Oil. Right now, I think there will be a significant negative turn in sentiment around July 5.

Following on my missed call for the Euro, and the bidding up of the greenback, the dominoes fell and Gold also had a bad week. It opens at $873, stuck in its current trading range between $850 and $950. The Venus-Sun opposition to Pluto this week contains the possibility for big moves here and there is a good chance they will be on the upside. In the Gold ETF chart, 5 Sagittarius rises, so the Pluto-Venus aspect will straddle the ascendant and create the potential for strong gains early in the week. Friday may also see a rise as Venus makes a good aspect to the natal Uranus in this chart. There's a reasonable chance to get back over $900 this week but much depends on Monday's action. If it's up, then we're likely headed substantially higher.