Stocks rebound in New York

Stocks in New York had a nice bounce today and rose 5% on optimism that some kind of revised bailout bill will pass later this week. The Dow closed at 10,850 and the S&P ended the day at 1164.

The extent of these gains were somewhat surprising, but the comeback is largely in keeping with my forecast for a rally later on in the week. The Senate is going to reconvene tomorrow to vote on a revised bill and this should extend the rally well over 11,000. We are in good shape for highs above 11,300 by Thursday, and if all goes well, perhaps even to our original target of 11,700. I am still thinking the terrain may shift Friday in advance of a difficult or even cataclysmic week next week so long positions here need to be handled with care.

Oil came back after Monday's record sell off and closed above $100. Although I was not specific in calling for yesterday's precipitous decline, I have forecast a positive week for crude, so let's see how high it can go in these relief rallies today and tomorrow. $110 may be a stretch, but $105 is very possible.

Not surprisingly, gold slumped back to $886 today as investors breathed a sigh of relief and no longer sought out the safe haven metal. Look for prices to drop further here, perhaps to $850 before recovering.

Mumbai and other Asian markets were surprisingly strong and rose 2% as the Sensex closed at 12,860 and the Nifty at 3921. 4000 on the Nifty is quite likely this week, with an outside chance at 4100, but it is unlikely to hold next week as we move down again.

The Euro plummeted over 3 cents yesterday down to 1.40, well in excess of our target of 1.42. There's more downside there this week and it may test 1.38 at some point.

Market plunges 9% on failed bailout vote

Markets in New York fell off a cliff today after the House of Representatives unexpectedly rejected the emergency financial bailout bill. The Dow lost a record 777 points or 7% and closed near its worst levels of the day at 10,365. The S&P lost 9% or 106 points and closed at 1107. This decline confirms my prediction from two weeks ago that the 29th would be very negative, although I had thought the drop might be more like 5%. Over the weekend, when it seemed that the bill would pass, I wondered if my original prediction had been mistaken, as I wrote in my weekly forecast. As it turned out, it underestimated the losses. Not surprisingly, oil fell $11 to $95 as investors worry of a global economic slowdown and gold rose over $22 and closed at $910. Today's New Moon in Virgo that featured a beleaguered Mercury may be seen as one important indicator for the decline in stocks.

I think tomorrow's trading will likely be negative but I don't foresee any huge drop like today's. In fact, there may be a stabilizing in the afternoon. I still expect some kind of rally perhaps on Wednesday and Thursday. As in my weekly forecast, Friday is looking quite iffy, perhaps due to some bad economic news in the jobs report.

Next week looks even worse, so we may be preparing for a 1000 point drop in the Dow. Even with a rally later this week that might get the market back to 11,000, I think we'll be under 10,000 with next week's collapse. 9000 is a worse case scenario by October 10th, although that is a very speculative target.

Market Forecast -- week of Sep 29 - Oct 3

As predicted, stocks in New York declined 3% last week, as the Mercury retrograde station in conjunction with Mars did, in fact, extend the losing streak on Wall St. While I had thought the damage might have been worse, we did approach the forecast targets as the Dow tested 10,700 and the S&P 1180. As this global financial crisis continues to unfold, the Dow opens Monday at 11,143 while the S&P is at 1213.

Much of the market's immediate fate seems to ride on the US government bailout plan. If it passes as expected on Sunday or Monday, then the market is likely to rally, perhaps substantially, over the coming week. While I had previously forecast early week declines, it's possible that these may not come to pass. Monday features a New Moon in Virgo. One possible difficulty here is that Virgo's ruler Mercury is in aspect to no less than three potentially disruptive planets -- Rahu, Uranus, and Neptune. Moreover, this New Moon occurs just one degree from the natal Rahu in the NYSE chart. Perhaps the malefic New Moon configuration will apply to trading sentiment in the coming month rather than the day of its occurrence. In any event, the market sentiment is likely to improve as the week progresses, so we very well may see net gains overall, regardless of the fate of the bailout package. With benefic Venus rising at the start of Monday's trading, 11,700 is very possible this week, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 12,000 at some point. Any prices near these levels may best be seen as exit points from the market for longer term investors. Watch for a decline on Friday, however, as Mercury will be in exact aspect to Rahu while Mars conjoins the natal Neptune and opposes the natal Saturn in the NYSE chart.

This may set up the jittery mood for next week from Oct 6 - 10 where I am still forecasting a significant decline, perhaps as much as 10%. Even if we have some kind of 'good news' rally this week, I still think next week's sell off will break below support levels of 10,500 and 1150. The second half of October is more favourable so we can expect some kind of rally in advance of another larger move down in November.

As predicted, Mumbai is coming off a terrible week in which it lost over 6% as the Sensex closed at 13,102 and the Nifty at 3985, their lowest levels since July. Whatever happens Monday, markets are more likely to rise this week as Venus applies to conjoin its natal position in the NSE chart. Next week will erase any gains made here and likely retest the lows. There is a very good chance that these lows will be broken -- Nifty 3800; Sensex 12,500.

The Nikkei was unchanged last week and opens Monday at 11,893. It is likely to move higher this week, especially with the Sun-Moon conjunction in good aspect to the natal Jupiter in the TSE chart. The bullish mood will likely come to and end by early next week, however, with the Sun-Mercury conjunction on the natal Neptune.

Against expectations, Shanghai was sharply higher last week as the government passed trading rules that cheered investors. The SSE opens at 2293 on Monday and will likely move higher as the Sun and Venus sit on the 9th and 10th house cusps respectively early in the week. It may take next week and the week following to take it under 2000.

The Euro had another bullish week and closed up one cent at 1.4588 on early week gains over the health of the financial financial system and the US dollar. While I've been wrong the past two weeks on the Euro, I think my bearish views may finally pay off this week as transiting Mars opposes the natal Saturn. 1.42 is possible. Wednesday looks the most positive day of the week as Moon and Venus will simultaneously conjoin the natal Jupiter in the FXE chart. Next week will likely see another bounce to 1.45 or higher as equities move lower.

Oil was up modestly last week and closed at $106. This week is likely to see continued strength in crude as Sun and Venus aspect their natal positions in the Futures chart. $110 is a possibility here, although it is unlikely to hold into next week as Mars conjoins the natal Moon-Saturn. Prices will see a sharp decline then and may move back to $100 or below. While a rally in crude is likely later in October, the longer term outlook into November and beyond is more negative.

As predicted, Gold was higher last week and closed Friday at $888. While I had thought it would be over $900 by now, at least it did trade above that level several times over the week. I think gold is likely to decline this week, although perhaps not by that much. Friday looks like it may be the best day for gold, as the Sun conjoins the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart. My previous forecast of $1000 may have been a little premature, but I still that level is within reach over the next two weeks. In the near term, gold will likely peak in the second week of November.

After the bailout: stocks slump; oil, gold, Euro rally

As predicted, stocks in New York fell over 3% today as investors worried that the government bailout may not be enough to stave off a recession. I think we will see more downside pressure the rest of the week.

Gold has resumed its upward direction as it rose to $913 today. We're on track to hit $1000 by perhaps next Monday, if not before.

Oil also rallied strongly and closed at $120. While I had anticipated gains early in the week, I was not prepared for this meteoric rise. Clearly, the US dollar is going to be pummeled in the near term as fears grow about the increased debt burden of the US government. This will drive up the value of commodities and other currencies. The Euro also moved sharply higher above 1.48 today.

Just as gold will rally in the coming weeks, it seems certain that it will be joined by oil and the Euro. It's possible we'll see the old highs of $147 eclipsed in crude while the Euro may once again be headed for 1.60. Please note, this is a significant revision of my weekly forecast. All these gains will not last long, however, as the Fed will likely have to raise interest rates perhaps in November to defend the greenback.

I am expecting a near term high in gold, oil and the Euro (and other currencies) next Monday the 29th. After that, the rally may slow somewhat but it should continue until about October 15-18. After that, I would begin to expect a change in sentiment that could occur in late October, or may be delayed until early November.

Market Forecast -- week of Sep 22 - 26

Global markets teetered on the brink last week as the banking crisis threatened to bring down the whole financial system. After steep early losses early in the week, the US government and Federal Reserve were compelled to intervene to stabilize the situation by bailing out the insurer AIG and injecting $700 billion into the system in an effort to restore shaken investor confidence. Markets rallied strongly Thursday and Friday and finished the week largely unchanged from Monday's open. The current situation remains extremely fragile and uncertain. My prediction two weeks ago for a significant decline on either Sep 12 or 15th was exactly on the money, as I had written that the American markets would retest their previous July lows at this time. This is exactly what happened as Monday's decline on the Dow broke through the all-important 11,000 level and Wednesday's close of 10,600 was even lower than the January low. Similarly the S&P breached the significant 1200 support level formed by the July low on Monday and hit 1150 on Wednesday. The Dow ended Friday's session at 11,388 while the S&P closed at 1255. While the strength of the late week rally was a little surprising to me, I did expect some gains later in the week.

Despite the astonishing recovery in the markets, my fundamental prediction for lower prices in the near term has not changed. This week looks mostly negative as the Sun-Pluto square perfects on Monday suggesting the possibility of a down day. Tuesday may see a bounce but we may end up testing 11,000 and 1200 at some point this week. Mars will conjoin the slowing Mercury on Tuesday and Mercury will turn retrograde on Wednesday so that is unlikely to help matters. A 2-3% decline is possible there, probably on Wednesday. I think Friday looks negative also, however and the following Monday the 29th looks even worse, so that could be another a new significant move down below 10,500 and 1150. We may see a 5% decline on Monday the 29th. This is going to get ugly very quickly. By mid-October, we could be below 9000 on the Dow. So what I'm predicting here is something akin to a crash. I'm not certain there will be a single, one day capitulation but perhaps instead a series of smaller drops. However, October 6-10 does look worse than most other time windows here, so if a crash occurs, it would most likely be then. One can't help but paraphrase the Prince song, 'we're going to party like it's 1929...'

Mumbai is coming off a similarly roller coaster week as the Sensex opens at 14,042 and the Nifty at 4245. After the predicted early week losses pushed indices down sharply, markets rallied on improved sentiment. My prediction that previous lows would not be breached was largely correct as the Nifty only got down to 3915. Monday will see the catch up rally, but the mood should darken after that. Hard to say if the week will finish up overall -- much depends on how negative the Mercury retrograde station is. What's particularly troubling about this Mercury-Mars conjunction is that it occurs exactly conjunction the natal Mercury of the NSE chart. This seems very disruptive, and may indicate substantial declines. I would not bank on any substantial gains after Monday. The following Monday the 29th looks quite grave, so we can expect the old lows to be knocked out by next week at the latest. That will mean 3800 on the Nifty and 12,500 on the Sensex. After that, I think there will be at least another 10% decline in early October. Buckle up.

Tokyo also got caught up in the financial vortex as the Nikkei closed lower and ended the week at 11,920, despite a huge rally on Friday. As predicted, the early week losses did break through the March lows as the index sank as low as 11,500. After a rally Monday, next week will see further erosion on the downside. The next support level is 11,000 which dates back to 2005 and that will be in jeopardy by the 29th. Transiting Saturn is applying to square the natal Mercury in the TSE chart over the next couple of weeks, so it's clear that Tokyo is headed much lower.

Shanghai also did not escape the market turmoil last week and did indeed break well below the 2000 level on the SSE as we predicted. It finished the week mostly unchanged and opens trading Monday at 2075. As a result of the chaos, the Bank of China changed some key trading rules, so it's possible that declines will be more modest this week than on other bourses. Nonetheless, the Mercury-Mars conjunction occurs very close to the Part of Fortune in the SSE chart, so it seems that Shanghai will follow other world markets lower. I think it will close below 2000 by week's end. By the second week of October, it may be close to 1600.

The Euro had a strong week as it gained 3 cents to finish at 1.4474. While I did not foresee this move up, I am maintaining my bearish stance as this week looks more clearly negative. The transiting Sun is moving away from the natal ascendant, while Mercury and Mars transit close to the aspect of natal Ketu. We will likely see 1.40 again by week's end or by next Monday at the latest. With all of these US government bailouts, the Fed may be forced to raise rates to defend the dollar which would spell disaster for the Euro.

Oil finished the week strong, as crude futures closed Friday above $104. While I did expect to see some upside above $100 last week, I thought prices would generally be weaker as the trend is to the downside. There is a chance for some modest short term gains this week, but the planets looks generally more bearish as the week progresses as transiting Venus conjoins the natal Saturn in the Futures chart on Friday. We could see $90 again over the next two weeks with the price continuing to fall through October back to $80 or below.

Last week, I thought Gold looked "volatile" with "daily $20 moves in both directions". Quite true, but I grossly underestimated the upside potential later in the week with the approach of Venus and Mercury to the MC of the GLD chart. I thought it would rise, but nowhere near as much as it did. Gold experienced its biggest one-day rise ever as it soared $80 in a single session. Its intraday high was $900 and finally settled at $864 at the close on Friday. I think bullion is poised to rise again this week, likely to well over $900. By next Monday the 29th, it may get to $1000 as the transiting Sun conjoins the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart. I believe gold is likely to trend higher until at least mid-October and by that time we may see prices well above $1000, perhaps to $1100. Calling a top in such a turbulent and chaotic market will be difficult. Gold will not stay at those lofty levels for long, however, so I am expecting a price collapse late in October or November back to current levels or below.

Dow rallies 400 pts on government regulatory plan

After a seesaw day, the Dow surged more than 400 points in the last hour of trading on the news of a new regulatory proposal by the US government. The Dow closed near previous support levels at 11,019 and the S&P at 1206. This is in keeping with my forecast that there would be a recovery rally later in the trading week. Friday may well continue the trend, although I doubt it will have any staying power. This may be the last chance for investors to exit the market above 11,000 since we can expect further deterioration next week and then accelerating declines after that. At this point, I expect we'll see 10,000 on the Dow by early October and then a sudden crash-like event probably in the second week of October, perhaps near the Columbus Day holiday that takes the Dow to 9000 or below. November's crash will likely send the Dow towards the retesting of the 2002 lows of 7500.

Gold continues to be the best safe haven in this market turbulence as bullion hit $900 early in the day before the government announcement and subsequent equities rally. It ended the day around $855. As predicted, volatility is the watchword here this week. There will likely be some more good opportunities to buy gold here at these levels, and there is a good chance it can climb back to $1000. Depending on how bad things get, gold could well go significantly higher than that. I'm expecting a big rise in the last days of September as there are a number of very favourable hits with benefic planets in the GLD horoscope. But I think the bulk of the rise on a percentage basis will occur by October 15th. It is important to remember that this explosive rally will be short-lived as gold is likely to drop precipitously in November and after.

Gold surges 10% to $868; Stocks fall another 4%

As Wall St continued to operate in panic mode on the heels of the AIG bailout, investors dumped stocks across the board today and sought the safety of short term treasuries, gold and oil. Gold had its biggest one day jump since 1980 as it soared over $80 and closed at $868.

While I had forecast a volatile week and higher prices generally in September, the extent of this incredible rally caught me off guard. I did however forecast gains for the conjunction of transiting Venus to the MC of the GLD chart and that is exactly what is happening today. Clearly, we have entered the much anticipated September rally that will take Gold back above $900. Given where we are now, $900 is an overly conservative target. I think $950 is more realistic target that we will hit in October. I don't see prices going straight up from here, however, so gold investors wishing to take long positions may get lower entry points over the coming days.

Remember, however, that this gold rally may be quite short-lived. Once equity markets settle down -- most likely after a full-blown crash -- then gold will quickly sell off. This seems likely in November although possible dates for a top include October 21, or November 4 and December 12.