Wednesday, September 17, 2008

Gold surges 10% to $868; Stocks fall another 4%

As Wall St continued to operate in panic mode on the heels of the AIG bailout, investors dumped stocks across the board today and sought the safety of short term treasuries, gold and oil. Gold had its biggest one day jump since 1980 as it soared over $80 and closed at $868.

While I had forecast a volatile week and higher prices generally in September, the extent of this incredible rally caught me off guard. I did however forecast gains for the conjunction of transiting Venus to the MC of the GLD chart and that is exactly what is happening today. Clearly, we have entered the much anticipated September rally that will take Gold back above $900. Given where we are now, $900 is an overly conservative target. I think $950 is more realistic target that we will hit in October. I don't see prices going straight up from here, however, so gold investors wishing to take long positions may get lower entry points over the coming days.

Remember, however, that this gold rally may be quite short-lived. Once equity markets settle down -- most likely after a full-blown crash -- then gold will quickly sell off. This seems likely in November although possible dates for a top include October 21, or November 4 and December 12.