Sunday, September 28, 2008

Market Forecast -- week of Sep 29 - Oct 3

As predicted, stocks in New York declined 3% last week, as the Mercury retrograde station in conjunction with Mars did, in fact, extend the losing streak on Wall St. While I had thought the damage might have been worse, we did approach the forecast targets as the Dow tested 10,700 and the S&P 1180. As this global financial crisis continues to unfold, the Dow opens Monday at 11,143 while the S&P is at 1213.

Much of the market's immediate fate seems to ride on the US government bailout plan. If it passes as expected on Sunday or Monday, then the market is likely to rally, perhaps substantially, over the coming week. While I had previously forecast early week declines, it's possible that these may not come to pass. Monday features a New Moon in Virgo. One possible difficulty here is that Virgo's ruler Mercury is in aspect to no less than three potentially disruptive planets -- Rahu, Uranus, and Neptune. Moreover, this New Moon occurs just one degree from the natal Rahu in the NYSE chart. Perhaps the malefic New Moon configuration will apply to trading sentiment in the coming month rather than the day of its occurrence. In any event, the market sentiment is likely to improve as the week progresses, so we very well may see net gains overall, regardless of the fate of the bailout package. With benefic Venus rising at the start of Monday's trading, 11,700 is very possible this week, and I wouldn't be surprised to see 12,000 at some point. Any prices near these levels may best be seen as exit points from the market for longer term investors. Watch for a decline on Friday, however, as Mercury will be in exact aspect to Rahu while Mars conjoins the natal Neptune and opposes the natal Saturn in the NYSE chart.

This may set up the jittery mood for next week from Oct 6 - 10 where I am still forecasting a significant decline, perhaps as much as 10%. Even if we have some kind of 'good news' rally this week, I still think next week's sell off will break below support levels of 10,500 and 1150. The second half of October is more favourable so we can expect some kind of rally in advance of another larger move down in November.

As predicted, Mumbai is coming off a terrible week in which it lost over 6% as the Sensex closed at 13,102 and the Nifty at 3985, their lowest levels since July. Whatever happens Monday, markets are more likely to rise this week as Venus applies to conjoin its natal position in the NSE chart. Next week will erase any gains made here and likely retest the lows. There is a very good chance that these lows will be broken -- Nifty 3800; Sensex 12,500.

The Nikkei was unchanged last week and opens Monday at 11,893. It is likely to move higher this week, especially with the Sun-Moon conjunction in good aspect to the natal Jupiter in the TSE chart. The bullish mood will likely come to and end by early next week, however, with the Sun-Mercury conjunction on the natal Neptune.

Against expectations, Shanghai was sharply higher last week as the government passed trading rules that cheered investors. The SSE opens at 2293 on Monday and will likely move higher as the Sun and Venus sit on the 9th and 10th house cusps respectively early in the week. It may take next week and the week following to take it under 2000.

The Euro had another bullish week and closed up one cent at 1.4588 on early week gains over the health of the financial financial system and the US dollar. While I've been wrong the past two weeks on the Euro, I think my bearish views may finally pay off this week as transiting Mars opposes the natal Saturn. 1.42 is possible. Wednesday looks the most positive day of the week as Moon and Venus will simultaneously conjoin the natal Jupiter in the FXE chart. Next week will likely see another bounce to 1.45 or higher as equities move lower.

Oil was up modestly last week and closed at $106. This week is likely to see continued strength in crude as Sun and Venus aspect their natal positions in the Futures chart. $110 is a possibility here, although it is unlikely to hold into next week as Mars conjoins the natal Moon-Saturn. Prices will see a sharp decline then and may move back to $100 or below. While a rally in crude is likely later in October, the longer term outlook into November and beyond is more negative.

As predicted, Gold was higher last week and closed Friday at $888. While I had thought it would be over $900 by now, at least it did trade above that level several times over the week. I think gold is likely to decline this week, although perhaps not by that much. Friday looks like it may be the best day for gold, as the Sun conjoins the natal Jupiter in the GLD chart. My previous forecast of $1000 may have been a little premature, but I still that level is within reach over the next two weeks. In the near term, gold will likely peak in the second week of November.