US stocks finish flat after steep midday plunge

US markets ended flat after after a huge final hour rally erased deep losses that saw the indexes move closer to their November lows. After trading below 7700, the Dow closed at 7932 while the SPX ended at 835 after touching 810 around 3 p.m. In Mumbai, the Sensex closed at 9465, down 1.5% on the day while the Nifty ended at 2893.

An interesting point about today's rollercoaster action: the Moon moved from Mars-ruled section of Hasta to Rahu's section in the early afternoon. Given Rahu's strength from the Jupiter conjunction, this may have been one factor that allowed sentiment to improve for the rally in the last hour. Of course, the sublord shift occurred while the market was still falling at 1 pm so we can't take this influence too far. The relief rally will likely continue tomorrow in New York, although I'm less optimistic about the Indian market.

Geithner fails to impress; New York plunges 5%

In what must be seen as a bracing, if rude, welcome for the new Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner's bank bailout plan was greeted with a huge stock sell off as the Dow lost 400 points to close at 7888 while the SPX ended near session lows at 827. The drop reversed the prevailing optimism that moved Asian markets on Tuesday as Mumbai rose modestly with the Sensex closing at 9647 and the Nifty at 2934.

I had thought we would see more upside this week, but Monday's failure to generate any new highs above SPX 870 convinced enough investors that the time to sell was nigh. A couple of planetary observations here may suffice as an explanation. First, I had wondered if the movement of several planets into Jupiter-ruled sectors of nakshatras might change the overall equation. It did change the equation, and for the worse. Even though I called for some early week upside, I knew that the Jupiter influence here was a little shaky due to Jupiter's close conjunction with malefic Rahu and its debilitated state in sidereal Capricorn.

An additional negative factor was the 135 degree aspect between Mars and Saturn. Given my discussion in the weekly forecast of the potential role of Mars as a trigger in releasing the Saturn-Uranus energy, it seems that some of that energy has now been realized. My previous hypothesis focused on Mars' full strength quincunx aspect that will become stronger towards the end of February. Certainly, the drop today suggests that some of that energy has been manifested with today's trading.

The best the bulls can hope for is probably not much more than a fairly weak technical bounce for the rest of the week. Tomorrow may well start out fairly negative as well. Asia should be quite negative also tomorrow since the Mars-Saturn aspect does not perfect until after the trading day in Mumbai. The trend continues to be down, so next week still looks worse, so we could retest the Fall 2008 lows then.

Forecast for week of Feb 9 -13

After being in the doldrums for most of the week, US markets rallied towards the end of the week on hopes for a speedy passage of the stimulus package and the bank plan and closed up 4% on the week. After trading below 7900 at the open Thursday,. the Dow closed Friday at 8280 and the SPX at 868. I had thought the Saturn-Uranus aspect might provide more down energy now, but with such slow moving planets it is sometimes harder to identify the necessary triggering planet and predict when their negative energy will be released. For example, the first exact Saturn-Uranus opposition on November 4 coincided with a rise. It is worth noting, however, that the market did fall in the days following the aspect. Also the market made a significant low the week prior on October 27. So even with some of the declines we saw in late January, I would argue that the bearishness of this aspect has yet to be fully expressed. It may require the Mars aspect in late February to bring it out and for the markets to move lower.

This week there are a few interesting patterns including a lunar eclipse on Monday which may increase trading volumes and intraday swings. The eclipse pattern seems negative given the close harmonic aspect with Saturn, but I think we may move somewhat higher this week, at least in the early going before the Sun moves into sidereal Aquarius. One thing I will be watching is the effect of Jupiter moving from Rahu's to Jupiter's portion of Shravana. Given Rahu's current conjunction with Jupiter, one could see how the market might get support from Jupiter receiving this Rahu energy. And yet now that Jupiter is transiting through its own section of the nakshatra (until Feb 15), there could be a change in attitudes towards wealth (Jupiter). It is worth noting that last week's rise came during the Sun's transit of the Rahu portion of Dhanista. The Sun will be in Jupiter's sub of Dhanista Monday and then Saturn for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mumbai lost a bit of ground last week as the rally only arrived on Friday. After bouncing up from 2760 a couple of times earlier in the week, the Nifty ended the week at 2843 and the Sensex at 9300. Aside from the unfulfilled downside energy from the Saturn-Uranus opposition, one of the interesting features of last week's action was the abrupt shift in sentiment from Thursday to Friday. Using the Nakshatra lord and sublord paradigm, we can find several changes, any one of which might have been involved in the move from bearish to bullish. Mercury transited from the Mars to the Rahu section of Uttarashada, hence increasing the plausibly positive energy available to market participants. At the same time, Mars moved from Mercury to Ketu's portion of Uttarashada. While Ketu is nominally negative for material endeavours, Ketu does come under the favourable aspect of Jupiter now, so it may not be as bearish as it may first appear. Finally, the Sun transited from Moon-ruled Shravana to Mars-ruled Dhanista between Thursday and Friday. Shravana is a very changeable nakshtra due to the constantly shifting influences upon its ruler, the Moon. But currently Mars may be interpreted as more positive given its exaltation in Capricorn and its approaching conjunction with Jupiter and Rahu. Further study of Mars' energy may shed more light on its effects in its transit of Capricorn over the next few weeks.

This week the market seems poised to go higher as the US stimulus package moves closer to becoming law. Optimism may be overflowing this week as Jupiter finally conjoins Rahu on Friday. And yet much depends on the effect of the various planetary transits to Jupiter-controlled nakshatras. Jupiter is debilitated in Capricorn and the influence of Rahu can make for sudden changes and reversals. The late week looks more negative as transiting Mercury comes close to the malefic 8th house cusp in the Nifty natal chart.

US rally runs out of gas

Stocks closed lower today after the rally fizzled in the morning. After hitting 850, the SPX ended the day at 832 while the Dow finished at 7952. In Mumbai, the market continues to struggle higher after Monday's sell off. The Nifty closed at 2803 after trading as high as 2840 and the Sensex ended the day at 9201.

We might see some morning gains in Mumbai but generally I think the mood will grow increasingly bearish over the rest of the week as we move into the Saturn-Uranus opposition. SPX 800 may well hold on Friday, while the recent lows on the Nifty (2700) look safe for now.

Stocks slump back after rally

Stocks in New York followed a sisyphean trajectory last week as an early rally culminated in Wednesday's high only to fall back by Friday below last week's close. The Dow closed at 8000 and the SPX ended at 825. I had thought the early week could be more negative with the Mercury Rx-Mars conjunction but it seems only to have increased the energy available to market participants rather than move the market in any particular direction. Its placement in Sun-ruled Uttarashada may be shaped the outcome as the Sun is under the presumed influence of Rahu and Jupiter in Capricorn. While Rahu is disruptive by itself, its current conjunction with Jupiter can produce acquisitiveness and buying. Overall, the market was slightly negative.

This week should see continued volatility as Saturn exactly opposes Uranus on Thursday with a t-square from the Moon forming during trading hours EST . There is a potential for a short rally before then, perhaps Monday or Tuesday when Moon is in Aries while its dispositor Mars is exalted in Capricorn. Tuesday's Moon has the added positive feature of being in Venus-ruled Bharani which is also currently exalted in Pisces. By Friday, Venus will square Pluto and combined with Saturn-Uranus opens the door to a possible return down to current support levels of Dow 7900 and SPX 805. February and March are shaping up quite negatively so the only question is whether the November lows of 7400/750 will hold. I think they won't.

Mumbai bounced back last week as markets rallied 7% with the Sensex closing Friday at 9424 and the Nifty at 2874. The extent of the upside surprised me, mostly because I did not expect the early week gains on the Mercury Mars conjunction. As strong as the rally was, I don't think it changes the fundamental direction of the market down. This week should see averages somewhat lower by Friday although if the early week gains come to pass, then the overall decline could be minimal or even be flat. Monday and Tuesday will see the now forward moving Mercury in a helpful aspect with the natal Jupiter in the NSE chart. This may give some support to prices. In addition to the difficult transit patterns that will build up by late week, Mercury will be sitting on the 12th house cusp of the Sensex natal chart. On Friday, the Moon will transit Ardra, a particularly difficult nakshatra. These are bearish influences that could bring down prices sharply.

Gold extended its recent gains last week as it closed at $928. While some retracement down did occur early on, prices resumed their upward climb following the Sun-Rahu conjunction. This week may see a couple of down days as Mars aspects Ketu in the GLD chart, but gold seems likely to continue to rise at least for the duration of the Sun's transit of Capricorn until Feb 12 and perhaps several days beyond. Gold may only begin to fall significantly in March once the Venus retrograde cycle has started. (Mar 6). So even if it tops out around $1000 in the next two weeks, the Venus retrograde period will return it back below $800.

Stock rally extended

Wall St rose sharply today on expectation of the bank bailout and the passing of the stimulus plan. Stocks gained 3% as the Dow closed at 8375 and the S&P at 874. Indian markets also extended Tuesday's gains as the Nifty closed at 2849 and the Sensex at 9257.

So far the rally is ahead of schedule, as I had expected declines earlier in the week and for gains at the end of the week. The market has risen on the heels of the Mercury-Mars conjunction, perhaps as the negativity of Mars moves out of the picture. While Mercury approaches its direct station on the weekend, we can still wonder how long this rally will last. There will be a lot of resistance around 8500 on the Dow and 880 on the SPX. The Nifty may similarly have a tough time going over 2950 and staying there.

Forecast for week of Jan 26 -30

US stocks took another beating last week as fears about the viability of the banking sector continued to rattle investors. The feel-good Obama inauguration failed to boost sentiment as the Dow lost over 2% on the week and ended Friday at 8077 with the S&P at 831. I had thought the Sun-Mercury-Jupiter conjunction might have provided the necessary lift for some kind of a brief rally but in the end Mercury's motion away from the positive influence of Jupiter limited the available optimism. Tuesday's loss coincided with Mercury's conjunction with the Sun, which gives support to the notion that planetary combustion is clearly a malefic influence.

This week looks action-packed, as we have the solar eclipse on Monday and the Mercury-Mars conjunction on Tuesday, along with Venus' ingress into Pisces. While the eclipse configuration has the imprint of both Jupiter and Saturn, I think the overall effect will be negative and underlines the probability that we are headed lower over the coming weeks. The early part of the week may see sharp declines with the possibility of some recovery by Friday.

Indian markets were also strongly negative last week with the Nifty falling to 2678 and the Sensex at 8674. Tuesday and Wednesday saw the markets fall over 6% at the time of the Sun-Mercury conjunction. That conjunction occurred at 6 Capricorn formed a harmonic aspect with the malefic Mars-Rahu square in the NSE chart and should be seen as a possible signature for the depth of the decline in Mumbai.

With Monday's holiday closing, most of the action this week will occur Tuesday. The Mercury-Mars conjunction occurs at 11.40 a.m. IST. While not necessarily negative in itself, the latent Saturn influence on the conjunction has the potential to push markets over the edge. We could see more significant declines there with only a small chance of recovery later on. Friday may be the best day as the Moon and Venus conjoin in early Pisces near the 10th house cusp of the NSE chart and near the 4th house cusp in the Nifty chart. I think most of the movement in the coming weeks will be on the downside.

Crude oil and Gold both rose sharply last week, mostly due to the Sun-Jupiter conjunction. The Sun received Jupiter's optimism and therefore Gold rose to $895 on Friday. Oil rose because its dispositor is also the Sun, since Saturn is currently in the sign of Leo. I think the rally in crude may continue this week although the rise may be more muted. Gold seems to be at the end of its recent rally and with the Jupiter's influence behind it, the Sun now has to contend with the conjunction with Rahu on Wednesday. By Friday, I think gold should be down significantly from its highs.