Sunday, February 8, 2009

Forecast for week of Feb 9 -13

After being in the doldrums for most of the week, US markets rallied towards the end of the week on hopes for a speedy passage of the stimulus package and the bank plan and closed up 4% on the week. After trading below 7900 at the open Thursday,. the Dow closed Friday at 8280 and the SPX at 868. I had thought the Saturn-Uranus aspect might provide more down energy now, but with such slow moving planets it is sometimes harder to identify the necessary triggering planet and predict when their negative energy will be released. For example, the first exact Saturn-Uranus opposition on November 4 coincided with a rise. It is worth noting, however, that the market did fall in the days following the aspect. Also the market made a significant low the week prior on October 27. So even with some of the declines we saw in late January, I would argue that the bearishness of this aspect has yet to be fully expressed. It may require the Mars aspect in late February to bring it out and for the markets to move lower.

This week there are a few interesting patterns including a lunar eclipse on Monday which may increase trading volumes and intraday swings. The eclipse pattern seems negative given the close harmonic aspect with Saturn, but I think we may move somewhat higher this week, at least in the early going before the Sun moves into sidereal Aquarius. One thing I will be watching is the effect of Jupiter moving from Rahu's to Jupiter's portion of Shravana. Given Rahu's current conjunction with Jupiter, one could see how the market might get support from Jupiter receiving this Rahu energy. And yet now that Jupiter is transiting through its own section of the nakshatra (until Feb 15), there could be a change in attitudes towards wealth (Jupiter). It is worth noting that last week's rise came during the Sun's transit of the Rahu portion of Dhanista. The Sun will be in Jupiter's sub of Dhanista Monday and then Saturn for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Mumbai lost a bit of ground last week as the rally only arrived on Friday. After bouncing up from 2760 a couple of times earlier in the week, the Nifty ended the week at 2843 and the Sensex at 9300. Aside from the unfulfilled downside energy from the Saturn-Uranus opposition, one of the interesting features of last week's action was the abrupt shift in sentiment from Thursday to Friday. Using the Nakshatra lord and sublord paradigm, we can find several changes, any one of which might have been involved in the move from bearish to bullish. Mercury transited from the Mars to the Rahu section of Uttarashada, hence increasing the plausibly positive energy available to market participants. At the same time, Mars moved from Mercury to Ketu's portion of Uttarashada. While Ketu is nominally negative for material endeavours, Ketu does come under the favourable aspect of Jupiter now, so it may not be as bearish as it may first appear. Finally, the Sun transited from Moon-ruled Shravana to Mars-ruled Dhanista between Thursday and Friday. Shravana is a very changeable nakshtra due to the constantly shifting influences upon its ruler, the Moon. But currently Mars may be interpreted as more positive given its exaltation in Capricorn and its approaching conjunction with Jupiter and Rahu. Further study of Mars' energy may shed more light on its effects in its transit of Capricorn over the next few weeks.

This week the market seems poised to go higher as the US stimulus package moves closer to becoming law. Optimism may be overflowing this week as Jupiter finally conjoins Rahu on Friday. And yet much depends on the effect of the various planetary transits to Jupiter-controlled nakshatras. Jupiter is debilitated in Capricorn and the influence of Rahu can make for sudden changes and reversals. The late week looks more negative as transiting Mercury comes close to the malefic 8th house cusp in the Nifty natal chart.