Sunday, January 25, 2009

Forecast for week of Jan 26 -30

US stocks took another beating last week as fears about the viability of the banking sector continued to rattle investors. The feel-good Obama inauguration failed to boost sentiment as the Dow lost over 2% on the week and ended Friday at 8077 with the S&P at 831. I had thought the Sun-Mercury-Jupiter conjunction might have provided the necessary lift for some kind of a brief rally but in the end Mercury's motion away from the positive influence of Jupiter limited the available optimism. Tuesday's loss coincided with Mercury's conjunction with the Sun, which gives support to the notion that planetary combustion is clearly a malefic influence.

This week looks action-packed, as we have the solar eclipse on Monday and the Mercury-Mars conjunction on Tuesday, along with Venus' ingress into Pisces. While the eclipse configuration has the imprint of both Jupiter and Saturn, I think the overall effect will be negative and underlines the probability that we are headed lower over the coming weeks. The early part of the week may see sharp declines with the possibility of some recovery by Friday.

Indian markets were also strongly negative last week with the Nifty falling to 2678 and the Sensex at 8674. Tuesday and Wednesday saw the markets fall over 6% at the time of the Sun-Mercury conjunction. That conjunction occurred at 6 Capricorn formed a harmonic aspect with the malefic Mars-Rahu square in the NSE chart and should be seen as a possible signature for the depth of the decline in Mumbai.

With Monday's holiday closing, most of the action this week will occur Tuesday. The Mercury-Mars conjunction occurs at 11.40 a.m. IST. While not necessarily negative in itself, the latent Saturn influence on the conjunction has the potential to push markets over the edge. We could see more significant declines there with only a small chance of recovery later on. Friday may be the best day as the Moon and Venus conjoin in early Pisces near the 10th house cusp of the NSE chart and near the 4th house cusp in the Nifty chart. I think most of the movement in the coming weeks will be on the downside.

Crude oil and Gold both rose sharply last week, mostly due to the Sun-Jupiter conjunction. The Sun received Jupiter's optimism and therefore Gold rose to $895 on Friday. Oil rose because its dispositor is also the Sun, since Saturn is currently in the sign of Leo. I think the rally in crude may continue this week although the rise may be more muted. Gold seems to be at the end of its recent rally and with the Jupiter's influence behind it, the Sun now has to contend with the conjunction with Rahu on Wednesday. By Friday, I think gold should be down significantly from its highs.