(2 September 2020)
With just two months to go before the election, President Donald Trump
finds himself trailing in the polls behind Democratic challenger, Joe
Biden. While Trump has seen a slight uptick in support over the past
few weeks, Biden still enjoys a solid 7-point lead. Trump's polling
numbers have trended modestly higher in August as he has benefited from
the ongoing rioting and civil unrest in cities such as Portland,
Seattle and most recently, Kenosha, Wisconsin. As an early indicator
of possible growing support, political betting markets
now see a 50% chance of a Trump win in November. This is up from just
a 35% chance of winning at the beginning of August. Betting markets
are less reliable than polls, however.
This upward trend in support may well continue into September.
Previously, I suggested that the Biden-Harris campaign would likely
experience a significant setback in September. This was closely related
to the Mars retrograde station that occurs on September 9. With Mars
due to turn retrograde at 4 degrees of sidereal Aries, this will
directly impact the horoscopes of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. The Mars
influence will likely reflect a general increase in stress and
activity but it is likely to also create problems for them. For
example, Mars will station in Biden's 6th house of enemies and
conflict.
By contrast, the Mars retrograde station may actually be a plus for
Trump. That is largely because Mars stations retrograde in his benefic
9th house in a sign that it rules (Aries). Favourable outcomes around
this time are more likely in areas of long distance travel, higher
knowledge and religion, and law.
Some possible manifestations could be a positive development involving an overseas ally (e.g. Taiwan, Israel, UK) or a helpful legal development. Trump already won a court appeal to keep his tax returns secret until after the election, so that may be part of this 9th house influence. But we should keep an eye out for further favourable developments in the legal sphere for Trump, including the handling of the election itself. There is considerable debate about mail-in ballots and the ability of the post office to handle the increase in mailed ballots due to Covid.
Mars (4 Aries) will also align with Trump's natal Mars (3 Leo) at this time. This Mars-Mars combination is also suggestive of conflict and disputes. But since he was born with Mars rising, conflict is a normal condition for him. He is usually comfortable with a certain amount of conflict and anger so he is more likely to gain some advantage from any new conflictual situation.
The other reason why Trump is likely to do well in September is because Mercury will be conjunct his natal Jupiter (24 Virgo). Jupiter is his current major dasha lord so any favourable transits to Jupiter are likely to coincide with positive outcomes. Since Jupiter is in Trump's 2nd house of wealth, there may be positive economic news for him and the US in general. The exact Mercury-Jupiter conjunction takes place on September 17 so that could be an interim high-water mark for Trump.
However, I would expect Trump's fortunes to worsen in late September as Mars casts its square aspect more exactly to Venus and Saturn. And with the lunar nodes returning to their natal position (Rahu-0-Rahu; Ketu-0-Ketu) in October, Trump seems less likely to do well in the final month of the campaign.
For now, I still think Joe Biden will have more votes on election night and it seems likely that he will be the next president. That said, given the likelihood of some post-election uncertainty, the final result may not be known for some time afterwards. This creates some uncertainty in terms of making a prediction about the final outcome.
Weekly Market Forecast
US Stocks have continued their relentless upward ascent this week on hopes for an early Covid vaccine. Other stock markets have been more mixed with Japan and Germany mostly flat over the past week with some profit-taking place in India. I thought we might have seen more downside by this time given the ongoing Mars-Saturn-Ketu alignment, however.
While we have yet to see any negative impact from this alignment, it will remain in place to some degree for the next month or so. Therefore, it seems more likely that stocks will move significantly lower eventually.
Tomorrow and Friday lean more bearish in this respect as Mars aspects Venus. This aspect won't last too long but it could break the current bullish spell over the market. And then next week we will see if there is any immediate fallout from the Mars retrograde station on Wednesday Sep 9. To be sure, there are some interesting times ahead.
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