(23 September 2020)
Last week's passing of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg has
introduced a new dynamic into the US election campaign. The loss of
the left-leaning RBG could mark a significant rightward shift in the
Supreme Court if Trump and the GOP carry through on their promise to
appoint her successor. As of now, Trump and the GOP-controlled Senate
have the 50 votes necessary to confirm a new justice over the coming
weeks, regardless of who wins the election on November 3. The
administration's term concludes on January 20, 2021 so even if Trump
should lose the November election, the confirmation of a conservative
justice such as Amy Coney Barrett or Barbara Lagoa could still take
place sometime in November or December.
This development is likely a political boost for Trump. The prospect of
another conservative member of SCOTUS will likely increase the
enthusiasm and turnout of his voting base. Whatever his many
shortcomings and failures, Trump has delivered on his campaign promise
of appointing two and now, possibly three conservative judges. In the
US system of government, the judicial branch has a greater and more
direct political importance than in, say, the British Parliamentary
system. Also, the focus on the campaign can now shift away from his
administration's bungled handling of the Covid crisis and onto the more
politically beneficial confirmation of a conservative justice.
As I suggested three weeks ago, I thought that Trump's standing could improve in September
due to the Mars retrograde cycle and the transit of Mercury to his
natal Jupiter. Interestingly, I highlighted the day of Mercury's
conjunction to Trump's Jupiter on September 17 as the time of a
possible favorable development. As it happened, Justice Ginsburg
passed away the following day, on September 18. To be sure, Trump's
polls numbers and betting odds haven't moved much in September, but
there is some sense that the battleground states are very much in
contention as we approach the first presidential debate next Tuesday,
September 29.
And the debates could be very important. For Joe Biden, they are an opportunity to decisively put to rest the widely-held view that he may no longer be mentally sharp enough to be president. The 77-year old Biden has at times seemed confused and incoherent on the campaign trail so a strong debate showing against Trump could help to solidify his support. Trump therefore needs to make Biden look like he is incapable of leading the country in order to build more momentum towards his failing campaign.
The planets for the first debate suggest a mixed picture for both candidates. In Trump's chart, the transiting Mars-Saturn square will be closely aligned with his Venus-Saturn conjunction. This is a difficult pattern that suggests frustration, tension and generally negative social interactions. Jupiter isn't helping him much here, although I do note that it forms an exact 120 degree aspect with his relocated Midheaven (10th house cusp) for Cleveland where the debate will be held. That could indicate some favorable outcomes at least. Transiting Venus will be conjunct his Mars in his 1st house. This can be good for public perceptions (1st house) although the Mars influence on Venus is usually a sign of disagreements and conflict. Well, it is a debate, after all.
Mercury in Libra will transit Trump's 3rd house which should enhance his ability to communicate. Of course, the slow-moving Rahu-Sun conjunction and Ketu-Moon conjunction is a huge wild card although its effects are not specific to the night of the debate. This heavy nodal influence often marks situations of disruption and instability and may make Trump's behavior even more unpredictable than usual. We may charitably say that he could succeed in keeping Biden off balance in the debate, but he also may not do himself any favors in the process.
Biden's chart is also afflicted by that Mars-Saturn square as it sets up
against his Jupiter in the 9th house. This could symbolize an
inability to communicate his philosophy and campaign platform. The
Venus in Leo transit looks generally positive for him in the 10th house,
although that may simply be a reflection of the greater social
exposure he will enjoy as a result of the debate. More worrying is the
Moon-Neptune conjunction that is conjunct his 4th house cusp (IC)
opposite his 10th house cusp (MC). Moon-Neptune aspects can indicate
situations of confusion or loss of self, especially when they are
located around one of the chart angles as is the case here.
Mercury in Libra will transit his 12th house opposite his Moon. This
suggests that Biden may have some difficulty getting the specifics of
his message across to the debate audience. Moon-Mercury oppositions can
indicate creative thinking but it is less well-suited for logical and
orderly presentations.
Overall, both charts have significant problems on September 29. Trump's
may be a bit better, however, in terms of communication (Mercury in 3rd
house, vs in the 12th in Biden's chart) and the Venus in the Ascendant
with his Mars could actually boost his personal appeal, albeit through
conflict. I would not expect a clear win by either candidate,
although I think that Trump could do better than Biden.
Weekly Market Forecast
Stocks have retreated in recent days as the reality of the Covid second
wave has begun to sink in. US stocks fell sharply again today just as
Mercury and Mars aligned with Saturn and Ketu (the South Lunar Node).
Since three of these four planets were natural malefics (i.e planets
that tend to produce negative outcomes), it was no surprise that the
market moved lower. The downdraft was in keeping with expectations as I
have previously noted both here and in my newsletter the likelihood of
some significant declines in late August and throughout September,
with a special focus on late September and this rare four-planet
alignment.
Further declines are possible this week as Mercury and Mars remain in
fairly close alignment with Saturn and Ketu. Mercury will begin to
separate tomorrow (Thursday) so that could indicate some lessening of
the negative sentiment, however. But Mars will stay in a tense square
with Saturn well into next week so I would not expect much upside over
the next few days. It seems more likely that markets will trend lower
going into next week.
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