Jupiter boosts stocks; Saturn prepares for Ketu

The September rally took another step higher last week as positive housing and manufacturing data persuaded more investors to buy in. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2% to close at 10,860 while the S&P500 finished at 1148. It was much the same story in Mumbai, as Indian equities continued their torrid pace with the Sensex again reaching the 20,000 plateau for the first time since January 2008. The Sensex closed Friday at 20,045 and the Nifty ended at 6018. Not to be outdone, gold futures touched $1300 an ounce and made a new all-time high. The Jupiter-Uranus conjunction is the gift that keeps on giving as the last weekend's conjunction is still overflowing with sunny optimism and an appetite for risk-taking. The early week gains arrived more or less on schedule as Tuesday's Sun-Jupiter aspect produced the expected gains. On Tuesday, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke reaffirmed his commitment for further stimulus measures to prevent a deflationary spiral from taking hold in the event of further sluggishness in the US economy. While the market had risen into his afternoon announcement, stocks embarked on a modest selloff afterwards and this down trend continued into Thursday. Friday's gains provided further evidence of the strength of Jupiter here despite the fact the conjunction is now separating.

This week offers another opportunity for a change in the trend as Saturn is thrust into the spotlight through its square aspect with Ketu, the South Lunar Node. As the planetary maestro of pessimism, Saturn's relative strength in the sky is an important indicator of where sentiment is tilting. When Saturn is prominent through the formation of significant angles with other planets, then the odds of a decline increase. When Saturn is tucked away into the background, then optimism has a better chance to flourish. The Saturn-Ketu aspect this week combines two clearly negative energies so caution and fear are more likely to manifest. That said, these two slow moving planets sometimes require a third planet to release their karmic payload. On paper, the role of that third planet may well be assumed by the Sun as it conjoins Saturn in sidereal Virgo on Friday. So the end of the week could be significant in terms of marking a trend change. To make things more interesting, Friday will be the first day of October and the first day of the fourth quarter. With the possibility of end of quarter window dressing, the new quarter may kick off with a bang. It will bear close watching.



"Man only likes to count his troubles, but he does not count his joys." -- Fyodor Dostoyevsky

Stocks running on Jupiter; Saturn waits its turn

Stocks moved mostly higher last week as growth prospects in emerging economies lifted sentiment. In New York, the Dow was higher by more than 1% closing at 10,606 while the S&P500 finished at 1125. In Mumbai, the atmosphere was almost euphoric as India continued to attract interest from foreign institutions. The Sensex jumped another 4% to close at 19,594 as the Nifty ended the week at 5884. Gold also made new all-time highs closing near $1280. Market sentiment appears to be flourishing under the protective umbrella of the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction as stocks have rallied off their late August lows. While I expected this pairing would act as a sort of insurance policy against any major declines, its ability to block out most other influences has been a little surprising. What was less surprising, however, was the early week strength that coincided with the Mars-Jupiter aspect. If the market was set to rise, this seemed like the combination to do it. However, we didn't get much negativity afterwards despite more aspect activity involving bearish Saturn.

So when it all this Jupiterian optimism going to end? Next week will offer more clues to that question since we will be in the post-conjunction phase of the Jupiter-Uranus aspect. As a rule of thumb, planetary aspects begin to lose their power only after they are exact and begin to separate. Today, September 18, Jupiter exactly conjoins Uranus. By next week, it will slowly begin to move away from Uranus and thereby begin the process through which its energy begins to fade. Well, that's the theory anyway. There are many exceptions here, but it is nonetheless worth considering. And while Jupiter's optimism may be waning, gloomy Saturn maybe ready to assume a larger role. While the aspects with fast-moving Mercury and Venus did not deliver much in the way of caution, Saturn gets another opportunity to strut its stuff thought its square aspect with Ketu -- aka the South Lunar Node. The aspect is exact on September 27 and is perhaps a more reliably bearish influence since Ketu is considered a malefic planet, just as Saturn is. by contrast, both Mercury and Venus are both considered benefic influences. In this case, then, malefic planet + malefic planet = a very negative result! Just when the effects of this aspect will be felt is a little unclear since these distant, slow moving planets often require triggers from faster moving planets.

This week promises to be quite eventful. Not only will we get our first glimpse of what a post-Jupiter-Uranus world feels like, but the Sun will aspect this conjunction on Monday and Tuesday. On paper, this is a very bullish alignment that ought to increase risk appetite and put investors in a buying mood. At the same time, there is a sense that this aspect could act as a final cherry on top of the this recent run-up, since after this aspect is out of the way, there won't be much else Jupiter can do for an encore. This sense of finality is reinforced since Saturn-Ketu looms just two degrees out of range waiting to assume center stage. To add to the excitement, there is also a tight Venus-Ketu aspect in the early part of the week that may distort buying patterns in some way. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke is due to speak Tuesday, so the fate of the markets may well hinge on his comments. If he offers new stimulus measures to boost the sagging economy, there is a chance for a sudden rally. But with Venus harmed by Ketu's aspect, I wonder how long that buying opportunity may last. Days, hours, or even just minutes? There is an instability here that would seem to incompatible with a durable rally, both in the economy and the stock market. Tuesday should be very interesting indeed. I would not be surprised with any outcome, but I do think the market is quite vulnerable here.

"In practice, randomness is fundamentally incomplete information."
-- Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Stocks rise on Venus-Jupiter; Mercury turns direct this week

Stocks edged higher in the US last week despite government reports indicating the recovery would be slower than expected. After putting in a losing day Tuesday, stocks rebounded and closed slightly higher for the week with the Dow standing at 10,462 and the S&P500 at 1109. In Mumbai, buyers came out in force as the Sensex rose more than 3% before closing at 18,799 while the Nifty finished at 5640. The continued optimism in the market was not surprising given the alignment of Venus, Jupiter and Uranus that was at its closest on Tuesday and Wednesday. Since both Venus and Jupiter are benefic planets, a rise was the most likely outcome here although there were locally unique expressions of this bullish energy. Most of the rise in Indian markets arrived on Monday while the US rallied more strongly on Wednesday. Interestingly, we saw very little evidence later in the week of the approaching aspect between Mercury and Saturn. Normally, this combination would tend to depress sentiment.

As the market mood remains relatively buoyant, we have to look no further than the Jupiter-Uranus conjunction for its source. Once these two planets exactly conjoin on September 18, however, this optimism may begin to wane as Jupiter starts to move away. A weaker and less prominent Jupiter could mean that gains will be harder to come by in the near term. At the same time, bearish Saturn may be strengthening as it is in aspect with both Mercury and Venus this week and then it forms a square aspect with the Moon's Nodes, Rahu and Ketu, on September 27. A stronger Saturn often translates into a falling stock market, although there are some exceptions to that notion. Nonetheless, the simultaneous weakening of Jupiter and strengthening of Saturn would appear to limit the upside here.

This week we have the somewhat unusual phenomenon of two planets reversing their directions with days of each other. Mercury ends its retrograde cycle on Sunday while Pluto ends its retrograde cycle on Tuesday. Reversals in planetary direction can sometimes reflect reversals in market trends, so we should be aware that there is an increased possibility of a change in the prevailing mood. At the same time, aspects are usually more reliable indicators of sentiment, even if their influence may be fairly brief. On that score, we can see a close aspect between Mars, Jupiter and Uranus early in the week (especially Monday) that could mimic some of last week's rise. The difference here, however, is that Mercury is sitting very close to an aspect with Saturn through the whole week. I thought some of this caution might enter the equation last week but it seems we may have to wait until this week. The aspect isn't exact until Wednesday, though, so perhaps the midweek period is a more probable window for it. Later in the week, we get another dose of Saturn as Venus moves into aspect. Even against the backdrop of Jupiter-Uranus optimism, all this Saturn should find a negative expression in the markets sometime this week.

"All money is a matter of belief." --Adam Smith

Stocks rise as Venus enters Libra; Mars follows this week

Some mildly encouraging US economic data made the glass look half-full again last week as investors pushed stocks higher. After early weakness, the Dow gained more than 3% to close at 10,447 while the S&P500 ended the week at 1104. In Mumbai, the Sensex added 1% closing at 18,221 with the Nifty finishing at 5479. In last week's post, I noted how the entry of Venus into sidereal Libra on Wednesday would tend to be positive for the stock market. Venus, the planet of shopping, can more readily deliver its positive energy when in the conducive environment of Libra. Wednesday saw stocks around the world rise with the Dow gaining almost 3% in a single day. It was an intriguing reminder just how neatly these sidereal ingresses can work. Unfortunately, they don't always work this way (alas, astrology is rarely simple), and hence I was tentative about the prospect for gains last week given the range of factors, both positive and negative.

After bouncing off a key support level early on, stocks appear to have embarked on a new up trend as we enter September. The month of August was quite bearish for the market as stocks in the US fell up to 7%. What is interesting here is the correlation with the planet Venus and its transit of sidereal Virgo. It entered Virgo on August 1 and completed its transit of this sign on September 1 when it then entered Libra. As I pointed out in my July 31 update, Venus typically does not do well in Virgo where it is said to be debilitated and this may constrict spending and act as a depressive factor upon stocks. So that's a nice correlation of a very negative outcome (-7%) with a debilitated Venus. Even more provocative is the fact that the market made an interim high within a few days of the entry of Venus into Virgo and it made a low on the last day that Venus was in Virgo. Of course, this is only one data point and can still be written off as coincidence, particularly given the other bearish aspects I have noted through last month. I'm certainly not so blinded by the stars to I can't acknowledge that coincidences do happen, not everything is meaningful and that some things are simply random noise. Still, it's interesting.

We will see the effects of another ingress this week as Mars follows Venus into sidereal Libra on Monday. Whereas Venus is a benefic planet that generally lifts prices, Mars is a malefic planet that should be considered a negative influence. There are a couple of complicating factors here, however, that may undermine the transparency of the effects of Mars. First, US markets are closed for Labor Day Monday, so other markets may be the ones to experience any effects. Second, and more importantly, Venus forms a minor aspect with both Uranus and then Jupiter early in the week. Two out of these three planets are benefics and in such a situation, Uranus often acts as a booster rocket that generates optimism that leads to more buying and rising prices. So these two forces are somewhat at odds with each other -- Monday's Mars ingress and then Tuesday and Wednesday's Venus-Jupiter-Uranus alignment. Perhaps the market will simply take their cues sequentially with weakness evident on Monday but recovery into midweek. Astrology rarely operates to simply, but it may be useful to think heuristically here. Later in the week, Mercury slows down ahead of the culmination of its retrograde cycle on Sunday and will form a fairly close aspect with Saturn. Saturn usually does not blend well with Mercury so this may coincide with greater caution.

In the background, of course, Jupiter is inching closer to its conjunction with Uranus and is now just one degree away. This bullish planetary combination comes exact on September 18 so that will tend to keep any down moves from going too far and may act as a reservoir of optimism in the event of any passing rallies.


"Theory helps us to bear our ignorance of facts." -- George Santayana

Stocks slide on Mercury retrograde; Venus enters Libra this week

Financial markets continued to look shaky last week as poor US housing data provided more evidence that the recovery may have stalled. Despite Friday's post-Bernanke rally, the Dow nonetheless closed down for the week at 10,150 while the S&P500 finished at 1064. Indian markets finally broke their winning streak and moved lower by more than 2% as the Sensex ended Friday's session at 17,998 with the Nifty closing at 5408. This latest weakness in the markets was perhaps a reflection of the Mercury retrograde cycle that began on August 20. Last week, I suggested that Mercury retrograde periods can be an added burden on sentiment which is often incompatible with higher prices. In addition, there were several difficult planetary combinations that would tend increase anxiety and take stocks lower. Interestingly, I had specified Thursday as a possible down day since there were two pairings that did not look favourable that day -- Mercury-Mars and Sun-Saturn. Thursday was lower in Europe and the US but India actually put in a positive performance. This is a reminder that there is always a margin of error in astrology, especially when dealing with global markets separated by many time zones. Sure enough, the Indian market then experienced a stronger selloff one day later on Friday while the US market rebounded after Bernanke's 10 a.m. promise to prevent deflation by any means necessary.

Like most complex knowledge systems, one of astrology's greatest challenges lies in trying to combine a high number of variables into one coherent picture. Nine planets, twelve signs, a dozen different aspects, 27 nakshatras, and so on -- that makes for millions of potential outcomes. And to make matters that much more intricate, there is comparatively little empirical evidence for the likely effects of each of these factors, much less what may happen when they occur simultaneously. This means a lot of astrological forecasting has to rely on deductive thinking from untested assumptions and theories about the potential effects of various planets and their interactions. Given this epistemological minefield, probabilistic thinking is a best case scenario and even that limited approach may come up short more often than we would care to admit.

The current situation is perhaps typical of many planetary setups that can best be described as "mixed". On one hand, the Mercury retrograde period extends to September 12 and may correlate with negative sentiment and repeating what has already been encountered i.e. retracing previous trends whether up or down, but often down. But Jupiter is fast approaching its conjunction with Uranus (exact September 18) and these two planets ought to increase risk taking and optimism for investment. Perhaps the result may be short term moves in both directions that ends in a sideways market.

This week we will get the effects of the second week of Mercury retrograde while Venus enters sidereal Libra on Wednesday. Venus tends to do better in the sign of Libra so we may see a greater focus on spending and the enjoyment of money. From a purely deductive perspective, this should be seen a positive factor for stocks, although it is only one out of many factors. By Friday, the Sun will conjoin Mercury while in close aspect with shadowy Rahu. This is an unusual combination of planets that suggests greater uncertainty and increases the potential for major moves. Rahu (North Lunar Node) is considered a malefic planet by nature, although it can sometimes have the opposite effect when circumstances support it. Given the close proximity of Mars to Venus, and the various Saturn aspects that are still in play, we may not have enough favourable energies to entice a positive result from Rahu. We shall see.


"It is vain to do with more what can be done with fewer." -- William of Occam

US Stocks fall on Venus-Mars; Mercury retrograde begins

US Stocks trended lower last week as more bad jobs numbers suggested the recovery was more talk than reality. The Dow fell about 1% for the week and closed at 10,213 while the S&P500 finished at 1071. As has been the case recently, Indian stocks were able to sidestep most of the trouble as the Sensex closed at two-year highs at 18,401 with the Nifty ended the week at 5530. Considering how many bad planets were in play last week, this outcome actually wasn't too negative. I thought Monday's Mars-Rahu aspect might correspond with more selling but Asia was only down modestly and New York recovered after the open. The midweek gains appeared to fit neatly with the Venus-Rahu aspect as Rahu's devil-may-care attitude loosened the purse strings for Venus. As expected, sentiment turned sour by the end of the week as impressionable Venus kept the bad company of Mars. US and European markets fell sharply after Wednesday while India confined its bearishness to Friday only, the day of the exact Venus-Mars conjunction.

Mercury turned retrograde on Friday afternoon and this is yet a potentially disruptive element to the already dense planetary picture. Mercury's retrograde cycle will last from August 20 to September 12. As the planet of commerce and trading, Mercury naturally figures prominently in financial astrology. When it is afflicted by Saturn, stocks generally fall. When it is in aspect with benefics like Jupiter and Venus, stocks usually rise. When it changes its direction and begins to move backward from our perspective on Earth, sentiment often undergoes a shift. This is perhaps less reliable as an indicator of market direction and is better understood as a background influence. Astrological lore says that new business is best avoided during Mercury's retrograde periods, since its outcome will often be unexpected and unwanted. That is why astrologers usually recommend going back over old business to tie up any loose ends, or review already existing work. It's generally sensible advice in any event, but in market terms it can sometimes mean that the market will go over or "retrace" over previous territory. For example, if the market has been rising, then it may go lower in order to revisit its previous levels. In my experience, Mercury retrograde cycles are much less reliable than aspects for predicting outcomes. That said, we ignore Mercury's condition at our peril since it is such a crucial planet for business and commerce. And I would note that the previous correction during April and May corresponded fairly well to the Mercury retrograde cycle of April 18 - May 12. Again, nothing is ever perfect in astrology (or in life for that matter), but there does seem to be something there worth paying attention to.

So the retrograde Mercury cycle adds another burden to the markets this week. The Sun forms a minor aspect with Mars on Monday that could generate an unproductive level of energy that could be too much for the market. Some positive aspects are available going into midweek, however, so short-lived gains may still occur. The Sun aspects Jupiter on Tuesday, as does Mercury and Venus. These could well carry over into Wednesday. Later in the week, the picture appears to darken as Mercury teams up with irascible Mars (esp Thurs) while the Sun tries to make nice with pessimistic Saturn.

"A jug fills drop by drop." -- Buddha

Dow slides with weak Venus; Jupiter-Saturn this week

Stocks slumped on most world markets last week amidst growing fears of a double dip recession in the US. The Dow broke below key technical support levels to close more than 3% lower at 10,303 and the S&P ended the week at 1079. Indian stocks resisted the down trend as the Sensex closed slightly higher for the week at 18,167 with the Nifty at 5452. This negative turn certainly comes as no surprise as I had noted the weakened condition of Venus in Virgo caught between a rock and hard place, aka the malefics Mars and Saturn. Fed Chair Ben Bernanke also dutifully played out his cosmic role as he announced further stimulus measures to kick start the sagging economy. The early week alignment between Venus, Jupiter and Pluto signaled some kind of need for increased spending, regardless of the consequences. Indeed, Monday's gains more or less corresponded with the Venus-Jupiter aspect while things began to unravel shortly after the aspect had passed.

So it seems that there are growing signs that the current skein of planetary aspects may finally be exerting some effects here. There is a sense that the economy isn't right and is not on the path to recovery anytime soon. More observers are noting the inability or unwillingness for government to address economic problems head-on. Europe's problems also appear poised to return to the front burner here as bond yields are once again rising for peripheral countries such as Greece and Spain. This is an indication that sovereign debt loads may becoming too large for most market participants to accept.

This week continues the parade of potentially notable aspects. Saturn exactly opposes Jupiter on Monday. This confrontational meeting between the celestial bearers of optimism and pessimism often corresponds to significant market moves. The last time they were in aspect in May, the market was in a serious down trend. Of course, the usual caveats apply. Like economics, astrology lacks infallible axiomatic knowledge and instead takes note of probabilities and tendencies, both empirical and symbolic. So what we do know is that Jupiter-Saturn aspects is an energy that does not necessarily favor expansion or risk taking. The early week period has the added feature of a tight square aspect between Mars and Rahu (North Lunar Node) that often represents a sudden or powerful release of force or energy. When it occurs alongside other tense patterns, it is often associated with negative situations and suggests higher volatility and sudden moves. Later in the week, Venus will finally catch up to Mars as they will conjoin near Friday's close of trading in New York A strong Venus often coincides with buying and gains, but when it comes in contact with malefics like Mars, its harmonious nature is compromised. Since Venus is already in a weakened state due to its transit of Virgo, this seems to be another negative astrological input.

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." -- Niels Bohr