Stocks rally after Powell signals slower pace of rate hikes

(30 November 2022) Stocks rallied today after Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested that current economic circumstances may justify a smaller 50 point rate hike as soon as next FOMC meeting on December 14.  All the major indexes rose sharply on the remarks and the S&P 500 even finished above its 200-day moving average at 4080.  The rally follows some post-Thanksgiving weakness earlier in the week that had resulted from worries that lockdowns and protests in China may extend supply chain disruptions.   Covid-related supply chain disruptions have been one of the main drivers of inflation in recent months.

While the early week declines coincided with several bearish Mars alignments with Saturn, Mercury and Venus, today’s rally was surprising as it appeared to anticipate more favourable late week patterns, such as the Moon and Jupiter conjunction.   In addition, I thought that some early week declines were more likely since the angular separation of Mars-Uranus (=33) matched that of Saturn-Neptune (=33).  Both of these planetary pairs were bearish influences since each contained a bearish planet — Mars and Saturn.

 

One possible explanation for Wednesday’s strong rally is that this angular separation had moved past exact as Saturn’s forward motion had reduced the angular separation to a bit less than 33 degrees.   With both Mars and Uranus moving in slower retrograde motion, their angular separation remained fairly constant at 33 degrees, or 32 degrees 55 minutes, to be exact.  The negative effects of the two planetary pairs therefore diminished once they moved past their point of equal angular separation.

At the same time, we can see two bullish pairings approaching a point of greater resonance.  Jupiter-Chiron (=13 degs 17 mins) is approaching the same angular separation of Sun-Mercury (= 12 degs 11 mins).  Since Mercury is the faster of the two planets, this angular separation is widening every day and will exactly match the angular separation of Jupiter-Chiron on Friday.  While I expected some late week upside on this four-planet alignment, today’s rally arrived a bit ahead of schedule and with considerably more force.

While some follow through to the upside is very possible from this pattern, next week’s Sun-Mars opposition on the Full Moon on Wednesday and Thursday looks more bearish.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

 

Stocks rally into Thanksgiving and the Jupiter direct station

 

(23 November 2022) US stocks extended their rebound Wednesday as Fed minutes suggested a willingness to slow the pace of interest rate hikes in the face of moderating inflation pressures.  The S&P 500 pushed above the 4000 level to 4027 and came to within a stone’s throw of the 200 day moving average of 4059.  The rally wasn’t too surprising given the bullish seasonality at Thanksgiving and the favourable Mercury-Venus and Sun-Jupiter alignments this week.

How long can this rally last?  The planets are pointing towards a pullback in the days ahead.  Jupiter changes direction today (Nov 23) as it ends its four-month long retrograde cycle. While not usually a decisive influence, the change in direction of a major planet like Jupiter can sometimes signal a trend change in the market.  More important, however, is that Mars is due to align with Saturn early next week.

On the face of it, the Mars-Saturn alignment may not look that bad since it is a seemingly more constructive 120-degree alignment.  Nonetheless, there is good reason to think that sentiment could worsen significantly.  First, the Mars-Saturn alignment at 25 degrees of Taurus and Capricorn, respectively, will recreate the same Mars-Saturn alignment in late September that coincided with significant downside and an interim low.   This time around their directions will be reversed since Mars is now retrograde while Saturn is moving forward.  Previously, Mars was direct and Saturn was retrograde.  So while it’s not exactly the same setup, it’s close enough to warrant our attention.

The other factor to consider is that Mars will oppose both Mercury and Venus next week.  Both of these alignments are bearish, not only because Mars doesn’t blend well with Mercury or Venus, but also because the opposition aspect is usually more difficult.  The fact that Saturn will also be present in the alignment could complicate matters somewhat and introduce the possibility of short term moves in either direction.

 

Additionally, we should note that the equivalent angular separations of key bearish planetary pairings.  As a rule, whenever bearish planetary pairs (i.e. those that include either Mars or Saturn) are separated by the same angular distance as other slow moving planetary pairs, declines become more likely.  Next week, we will have not one but two such bearish pairings as the Mars-Uranus separation will be 33 degrees and this will almost equal both the Uranus-Chiron pairing (34 degrees) and Saturn-Neptune (33 degrees).  The resonance of Mars-Uranus and Saturn-Neptune are particularly bearish since both are negative influences.  While the accompanying chart  is cast for Monday, Nov 28, we should note that the bearish influence will extend throughout the week.

Significantly, there are no potentially offsetting bullish Jupiter pairings, even involving faster-moving planets such as the Sun, Mercury and Venus.  The Jupiter-Neptune separation is 6 degrees while the Jupiter-Chiron separation is 14 degrees.  Neither pairing finds an equivalent separation with the Sun-Mercury (=11), Mercury-Venus (=2) or Sun-Venus (=9).  The absence of any positive planetary pairings therefore increase the odds of some downside next week.

 

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek.  You can be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter.

 

US midterm election outcome still undecided

 

(9 November 2022) The outcome of yesterday’s US midterm elections remains unknown today as many races are still too close to call.  With a near-even split of seats in both the House and the Senate, it may be days or even weeks before we know which party will win control.  US stock markets sold off today on the unexpected uncertainty, after many polls had suggested a Republican “red wave” which failed to materialize.

This unexpected result was perhaps not so very unexpected from an astrological perspective.  In a previous post, I had noted that the midterm election coincided with a lunar eclipse which significantly increased the likelihood of uncertain outcomes.  The disruptive potential of the eclipse was further increased since it occurred at 22 degrees of sidereal Aries and thus exactly conjoined Uranus, the planet of unpredictable and surprising events.  The negative market impact likely derived not from the eclipse itself, however, but from the fact that eclipse highlighted the ongoing Saturn-Uranus square.  As we know, planetary alignments involving Saturn are usually bearish for market sentiment.

So what happens now? In market terms, it is possible we could see further weakness this week as Mercury and the Sun square Saturn, either because of the continued election uncertainty or perhaps from tomorrow’s CPI report in the US.  Politically, there is some chance that Biden and the Democrats could salvage the situation over the weekend.  Biden’s chart is still quite afflicted by the ongoing Saturn-Uranus square and Saturn’s aspect to his natal Mars (19 Libra) and Mercury (28 Libra).  And yet there could be some improvement in his fortunes on Sunday and Monday as Venus and Jupiter align with his Sun-Venus conjunction at 4-5 Scorpio, as well as aspecting his natal Jupiter at 2 Cancer.   On Sunday evening, the Moon will join this alignment and create a “Grand Trine” where each planet is separated by 120 degrees. This is usually a signal for favourable developments.  While it is impossible to know if this will be election related, it nonetheless opens the door to some good news.  One possible scenario would be that the outcome of a key Senate races is finalized on Sunday or early next week that allows Democrats to retain control of that chamber.

 

The other favourable time window for Biden and the Democrats is around Nov 19-20 when the Sun conjoins Biden’s Sun-Venus conjunction.  As an added plus, both Mercury and Venus will conjoin Biden’s Ascendant, although we should note there is still some uncertainty about the accuracy of Biden’s birth time.  Nonetheless, this means that even if Senate control isn’t clear by early next week, the Democrats could get some more positive election-related news in this second favourable time window.

The other thing working in Biden’s favour here is that Jupiter is due to end its retrograde cycle and station direct at 4 degrees of Pisces on Nov 23.  This will form an exact 120 degree aspect to both his Sun-Venus conjunction and his his natal Jupiter and should provide a temporary boost for him at various points during the month of November.  This positive Jupiter influence will likely dissipate after Nov 23 as it begins to separate from the natal Sun and Venus.

The other takeaway from the election is the relatively weaker position of former president Donald Trump.  The failure of the “red wave” of GOP seats was a partial rejection by voters of his more radical platform that questioned US election integrity.  After the defeat of several of his endorsed candidates, his potential candidacy for the 2024 election is now in doubt.  Betting markets now put Florida governor Ron DeSantis as the favourite to be the GOP nominee over Trump for the first time.

We can see some astrological indications for Trump’s disappointing election outcome.  Not only was retrograde Mars conjunct his Sun and opposite his Moon, but Mars is forming a very difficult square alignment with Neptune.  The ongoing Neptune square with his Sun-Moon natal opposition is the major reason why Trump has been on the defensive this year, as he attempts to deflect responsibility for his role in January 6 Capitol riot.  Trump is likely to remain weakened politically into early 2023 at least as the Saturn-Neptune alignment (Dec 2022) and then the Saturn-Pluto alignment (Mar 2023) activate key points in his horoscope.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Sunday.   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

These updates are usually posted midweek. Be notified of new posts by following me on Twitter

Stocks tumble as Fed raises rates 75 basis points

 

(2 November 2022) US stocks sold off on Wednesday after comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell effectively took the prospect of a Fed “pause” off the table for the foreseeable future.  While the market had already priced in the 75 basis point hike, Powell’s remarks reiterated his commitment to the 2% inflation target, even if it means a significantly higher terminal interest rate.

While stocks have rebounded fairly strongly off their mid-October lows, it remains to be seen if the low is in and the rally can continue.  As I noted last week, there is some reason to be skeptical about the current rally given the approach of next Tuesday’s lunar eclipse and the array of aspects involving the planet Saturn.  But will these upcoming Saturn alignments with Venus, Mercury and the Sun produce just a brief pullback or could it open the door to a deeper decline?

An additional perspective on this question can be seen in the horoscope of the Federal Reserve.   The Fed’s chart can offers clues about the general condition of financial markets as transit afflictions by Saturn or Rahu and Ketu tend to coincide with periods of instability while harmonious aspects of Jupiter can indicate relative calm.

In my September post about the Fed’s chart, I suggested that the approach of the Saturn station at 24 Capricorn was likely to mark a time of some difficulty for the Fed since it conjoins the 8th house cusp at 25 Capricorn.  According to the principles of Vedic astrology, the 8th house is regarded as the most malefic house in the chart.  Due to its retrograde cycle, Saturn has been within one degree of this sensitive cuspal point for more than two months.

In addition, I noted that Mars would conjoin the 12th house cusp at 25 Taurus in the Fed chart in the final week of September.  If the 8th house is the worst house, the 12th house is the second worst and having another malefic planet like Mars on the 12th cusp would likely reflect more problems for the Fed.   And indeed, stocks did drift lower in late September following the Fed’s FOMC decision to raise rates on Sep 21.

 

What we should note here is that this double-barreled affliction of Saturn and Mars to the 8th and 12th house cusps will actually set up again in late November.  With Saturn now resuming its forward motion after its Oct 23 station, it will tightly conjoin the equal 8th house cusp in the second half of November.  And since Mars turned retrograde on Oct 30, it is also due to return to the 12th house cusp in late November, with Nov 28 as a possible date of its maximum influence.  Of course, we should be aware that even if the planets re-create a previous pattern, we can’t necessarily assume identical outcomes.  In that sense, one doesn’t step into the same planetary ‘river’ twice.

One additional caveat here is that the afflictions to the Fed chart is a more inferential piece of evidence that may not directly reflect market moves.  An affliction to the Fed horoscope could therefore represent some other aspect of Fed policy which markets have already anticipated and discounted.  Perhaps there could be data that shows growth slowing while inflation remains stubbornly high.  This is a worse case scenario for the Fed as it will be forced to make a hard choice about tipping the economy into recession as a direct result of its policies.  And yet one would think that the market would welcome any chance of a pivot towards ending the current cycle of rate hikes.  Nonetheless, theses late November alignments do suggest some reason for caution about financial markets.

 

These updates are posted each week, usually on Tuesday or Wednesday. 

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Lunar eclipse casts shadow over US midterm elections

 

(26 October 2022)  With the approach the US midterm elections on Nov 8, polls are predicting a close race with Republicans (GOP) enjoying a slight edge.   Held two years after the presidential election, the midterms determine which party controls the two houses of Congress.  Currently, Democrats control both the House and the Senate, albeit by the narrowest of margins in the case of the Senate.  Polls are showing the GOP will easily win the House of Representatives, but the Senate looks much tighter.  Polls over the past two weeks have shown the GOP gaining ground on the Democrats with some aggregators now predicting a narrow GOP win with 51 or 52 seats out of 100.

From an astrological perspective, the Democrats definitely look vulnerable.  President Joe Biden’s chart is significantly afflicted during the run-up to the Nov 8 election.  Transiting Ketu is conjunct his natal Mars (19 Libra) in his 12th house of loss.  Ketu (South Lunar Node) is a natural malefic that symbolizes fast-changing and chaotic situations and its combination with a 12th house Mars looks difficult for Biden and the Democrats. Of course, the Ketu-Mars transit may not necessarily relate to the election result but given the importance of the election for the Biden platform, it nonetheless argues for a major setback for the Democrats.

Saturn (24 Capricorn), now having completed its retrograde cycle, is still locked in a heavy square aspect to Biden’s Mercury and Mars.  Given its slow speed and recent retrograde cycle, Saturn has been in this challenging aspect all year and is one obvious reason why Biden’s approval is remains submerged well below 50% as he struggles to deal with the political fallout of rising inflation and his administration’s blank check funding for the war in Ukraine.

One very intriguing fact about the midterm elections is that they will occur on the same day as a lunar eclipse.  On November 8, a lunar eclipse takes place at 21 degrees of sidereal Aries, thus forming an exact square with unpredictable Uranus and a slightly wider square with pessimistic Saturn.   While eclipses are normally associated with disruptions or suspensions of the status quo in any event, this Nov 8 eclipse is front-loaded with a potential for significant disruption and change.

 

But how to interpret this?  I think the most basic point here is that an election day eclipse occurring in an already-afflicted chart of the incumbent party leader strongly indicates a defeat for the Democrats and specifically, the loss of the Senate.  The conjunction by a freshly retrograde Mars to the Ascendant (1 Gemini) and natal Rahu of the horoscope of Vice-President Kamala Harris’ is additional evidence of the Democrats woes here at the end of October and beginning of November.

But at another level, the effect of an election day eclipse could also increase the risk of an uncertain or disputed outcome.  To be sure, contested election results have become all-too-common in the US these days as the patchwork quilt of state election laws make it more likely for the losing side to launch lawsuits and recounts.  So while the planets are pointing towards a Democrat defeat, they also increase the likelihood of some uncertainty that could last beyond election day and may include legal challenges to the outcome.

Weekly Market Forecast

US stocks have been in rebound mode in recent days as inflation fears have subsided somewhat and taken some of the pressure off the Fed.  This week’s rally appeared to coincide with a favorable solar eclipse which conjoined Venus at 8 degrees of sidereal Libra.  Tuesday’s eclipse was within one degree of Venus, which is considered to be a mostly bullish influence on sentiment.  In addition, Saturn has returned to its normal direct motion as of Oct 23 and thus offers a theoretical reason at least for a lessening of pessimism.

However, Mars is about to turn retrograde on Sunday, Oct 30.  Like Saturn, Mars tends to be a bearish planet when it becomes prominent, either by aspect or by condition.  The period around the retrograde station therefore brings an elevated downside risk for stocks.  We also note that this particular station of Mars at 1 Gemini will aspect Pluto within just one degree.  Mars-Pluto aspects tend to be bearish combinations in any event, and if we include the retrograde station into the mix, market risk would seem to be somewhat higher.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.

Photo Credit: David

Stocks bounce on earnings optimism; UK inflation weighs

 (19 October 2022) Stocks have moved higher this week on optimism that earnings season may bring better than expected results.  However, Wednesday's pullback was a reminder of the fragility of the current rebound as bond yields moved to new highs after UK inflation hit the psychologically important 10% level. 

Nonetheless, this week's bounce is in keeping with our astrological expectations.  First, the entry of Venus into sidereal Libra on Tuesday tends to be bullish, even if this year's ingress was marked by a potentially complicating influence from its simultaneous alignment with Mars.  But last week we also noted the presence of a second bullish influence in the four-planet alignment of Mercury, Venus, Jupiter and Chiron.   On Tuesday, the angular separation of the bullish pairing of Mercury and Venus was 13 degrees.  This matched the angular separation of another bullish pairing of Jupiter and Chiron.  While the week is not yet over, Tuesday was the high of the week and provided some confirmation of the effects of these two different positive influences.

There is some reason to be cautious for the next several sessions.  On the plus side, the Mercury-Venus separation will narrow to 12 degrees but still be within one degree of the Jupiter-Chiron angular separation.  This may act as residual, if declining, bullish sentiment.  Also we should note that the Sun-Mercury angular separation is just a bit under 13 degrees for Thursday's session.  While probably not as positive as Mercury-Venus, this could act as another favourable influence as it resonates with Jupiter and Chiron. 

However, some of this bullish influence could be offset by the square alignment of Sun-Venus with Pluto.  With the Sun and Venus are essentially moving as one in early Libra, the 90-degree alignment with Pluto suggests a more negative mood.  And if we throw in the approaching Saturn direct station on Sunday, Oct 23 which highlights its ongoing square with Uranus, there are also some potentially negative influences to consider here. 

However, on a relative basis, sentiment could be subject to an even greater risk as we approach the Mars retrograde station on Oct 30, when the red planet reverses its apparent motion from forwards to backwards.  Mars is a malefic planet, of course, and the time around its retrograde stations can be volatile, especially if Mars forms alignments with other planets.  This is very much the case here as Mars will cast its full-strength 8th house aspect (i.e. 210 degrees) to Pluto at the end of October.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.


Photo Credit: A. Duarte

US stocks fall to new lows ahead of CPI inflation data

(12 October 2022) US stocks closed at a new low for the year today as wholesale PPI inflation came in higher than expected at 8.5%.  And with the Fed showing no signs of pivoting towards easing any time soon, investors are now considering the very real possibility that interest rates will continue to climb well into 2023. 

This week's decline was not unexpected as it coincided closely with the Mars-Neptune square.  Hard Mars aspects (0, 90 or 180 degrees) have a bearish bias in any event, and this is even more likely when it involves an outer planet like Neptune.   Although it has been within range for the past several days, Mars formed its exact square aspect with Neptune this morning.   It is also worth noting that this was a partial strength backward square alignment rather the full-strength forward square according to Vedic aspecting rules.  Nonetheless, it was clearly bearish in the days leading up to today's theoretical maximum influence.

Tomorrow's CPI inflation number is likely to be a market mover.  I must admit I don't have any strong opinions of how the market will react given the mix of influences.  With Mars now moving past its square with Neptune, there is the possibility of a reduction of negative sentiment which could increase the odds of a rebound.  

Also, the Moon will form a loose alignment with Mercury and Jupiter in the morning which could also be a plus.  But the Venus-Saturn-Uranus alignment is more of a question mark and leaves open the possibility of more downside.  Of course, the underlying Saturn-Uranus square is not doing the markets any favours here, especially as Saturn slows ahead of its direct station on October 23.  But the short term alignments do offer some renewed hope for bulls here. 

Next week, we can see that the entry of Venus into sidereal Libra could throw the bulls a lifeline.  As I have previously noted, the transit of Venus through Virgo, its sign of debilitation, is often marked by market weakness.  This has been the case again this year as markets are trading lower since the entry into Virgo on Sep 24.  But where Virgo is a difficult sign for Venus, Libra tends to be better, especially right around the exact day of the ingress which occurs on Oct 18 this year.  While this isn't always bullish, the correlation is fairly high nonetheless.  If nothing else, it reduces the probability of some downside on that day.  

This year's ingress is a bit more complicated since Venus will align with Mars.  This Mars influence could offset some of the potential positive mood at the start of the week, although it seems less likely to totally negate it.  In addition, we can see that there is a potentially bullish four-planet set up next week.   Mercury and Venus will be separated by 13 degrees, and Jupiter and Chiron will also be separated by 13 degrees.  While Chiron can be either positive or negative in its effects, the other three planets are generally considered benefics and therefore seem more likely to generate some optimism.  These equal angular separations create a kind of bullish resonance among the four planets which make gains more likely during the time of when the angular separations are closest.

For more details, check out my weekly subscriber newsletter which is published every Saturday afternoon (EST).   In addition to reviewing the key planetary and technical influences on US and Indian stocks for the short and medium term, I also provide an astrological analysis of potential upcoming moves in currencies, gold and oil.