Wednesday, November 2, 2022

Stocks tumble as Fed raises rates 75 basis points

 

(2 November 2022) US stocks sold off on Wednesday after comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell effectively took the prospect of a Fed “pause” off the table for the foreseeable future.  While the market had already priced in the 75 basis point hike, Powell’s remarks reiterated his commitment to the 2% inflation target, even if it means a significantly higher terminal interest rate.

While stocks have rebounded fairly strongly off their mid-October lows, it remains to be seen if the low is in and the rally can continue.  As I noted last week, there is some reason to be skeptical about the current rally given the approach of next Tuesday’s lunar eclipse and the array of aspects involving the planet Saturn.  But will these upcoming Saturn alignments with Venus, Mercury and the Sun produce just a brief pullback or could it open the door to a deeper decline?

An additional perspective on this question can be seen in the horoscope of the Federal Reserve.   The Fed’s chart can offers clues about the general condition of financial markets as transit afflictions by Saturn or Rahu and Ketu tend to coincide with periods of instability while harmonious aspects of Jupiter can indicate relative calm.

In my September post about the Fed’s chart, I suggested that the approach of the Saturn station at 24 Capricorn was likely to mark a time of some difficulty for the Fed since it conjoins the 8th house cusp at 25 Capricorn.  According to the principles of Vedic astrology, the 8th house is regarded as the most malefic house in the chart.  Due to its retrograde cycle, Saturn has been within one degree of this sensitive cuspal point for more than two months.

In addition, I noted that Mars would conjoin the 12th house cusp at 25 Taurus in the Fed chart in the final week of September.  If the 8th house is the worst house, the 12th house is the second worst and having another malefic planet like Mars on the 12th cusp would likely reflect more problems for the Fed.   And indeed, stocks did drift lower in late September following the Fed’s FOMC decision to raise rates on Sep 21.

 

What we should note here is that this double-barreled affliction of Saturn and Mars to the 8th and 12th house cusps will actually set up again in late November.  With Saturn now resuming its forward motion after its Oct 23 station, it will tightly conjoin the equal 8th house cusp in the second half of November.  And since Mars turned retrograde on Oct 30, it is also due to return to the 12th house cusp in late November, with Nov 28 as a possible date of its maximum influence.  Of course, we should be aware that even if the planets re-create a previous pattern, we can’t necessarily assume identical outcomes.  In that sense, one doesn’t step into the same planetary ‘river’ twice.

One additional caveat here is that the afflictions to the Fed chart is a more inferential piece of evidence that may not directly reflect market moves.  An affliction to the Fed horoscope could therefore represent some other aspect of Fed policy which markets have already anticipated and discounted.  Perhaps there could be data that shows growth slowing while inflation remains stubbornly high.  This is a worse case scenario for the Fed as it will be forced to make a hard choice about tipping the economy into recession as a direct result of its policies.  And yet one would think that the market would welcome any chance of a pivot towards ending the current cycle of rate hikes.  Nonetheless, theses late November alignments do suggest some reason for caution about financial markets.

 

These updates are posted each week, usually on Tuesday or Wednesday. 

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